Lawson Winder

Brad Ford confirmed upside to the 75% assumption and detailed new grades (API line pipe, armor, ABS shipbuilding) that were previously unavailable.

Leon and Noah Hanners answered directly, framing the buying pattern as demand-driven and citing sheet imports falling from 9 million tons in 2024 to about 4.5 million.

Warehouse market in steady state but data center market continues very strong, driving price increases and backlog improvement expected to continue through the year.

Q1 return was under 40% due to earnings beat. Jack indicated they will close the gap and potentially exceed the 40% target while balancing reinvestment opportunities.

Steve guided maintenance CapEx closer to $800M annually (up from prior $600M guidance) due to post-COVID inflation and larger company size. Leon emphasized the culmination of West Virginia will absorb majority of CapEx moving into 2027.

Leon highlighted data centers (Nucor supplies 95% of steel demand), energy infrastructure, border wall, and towers & structures as growth platforms. Signaled shift from heavy core CapEx to adjacency M&A and lower-capital-intensity growth.

Leon noted most sheet deliveries are contract-based with Q4 reflecting softer Q2 order book pricing, but lean service center and mill inventories will enable faster Q1 realization of current increases.

Leon outlined M&A filters: steel-centric synergy, converter model, low capital intensity, high margins, countercyclical to steel cycles. Shift from core investments to expand-beyond adjacencies in coming years.

Steve noted pre-op costs came down significantly QoQ driven primarily by Brandenburg reaching breakeven, guiding $140-150M per quarter for H2. Leon highlighted the tsunami of earnings power approaching as projects ramp.

Brad Ford emphasized capability over capacity, noting Q2 records expected to be broken each quarter forward. Bridge, onshore wind, power transmission, and line pipe all robust demand drivers.

Steve guided Q2-Q4 startup costs similar to recent quarters ($160-170M/quarter), with five projects coming online in 2025.

Brad Ford highlighted record production months, ABS certification for shipbuilding, and first X70 API grade trials for line pipe, confirming EBITDA positive track by summer.

Leon described a balanced commercial plan across three plate mills, pursuing both volume ramp and higher-grade qualifications. ABS timing aligns with Section 301 ships executive order.

Leon tripled the prior Investor Day guidance from $50M to at least $150M annual EBITDA for Towers & Structures, citing highly automated plants with significant cost advantages.

Leon clarified the Pacific Northwest mill pause was about capital deployment timing, not market oversupply concerns. Randy Spicer noted new domestic supply will be absorbed by infrastructure and reshoring demand.

CFO stated Red Chris would be incremental to the 2026 development figure and deferred the 2027 outlook to February.

CEO confirmed the offset exists in principle but gave no quantification, and the analyst asked for more color on a future call.

CEO outlined two key levers: productivity improvements (including equipment parking to reduce consumption) and continued cost discipline to offset gold-price-linked royalties and worker participation.

CEO clearly prioritized internal operations and brownfield expansion over external M&A, noting acquisitions would need to compete for capital within the broader portfolio.

Natascha redirected away from Fourmile, saying discussions with Barrick have been predominantly about improving NGM performance. Described the relationship as constructive but gave no specifics on Fourmile.

Natascha confirmed sustaining/development capital averages and noted the capital allocation framework allows for value-accretive project decisions. Red Chris update expected in H2 2026. Merian exploration update also coming later in the year.

Goldrush already in NGM portfolio with capital forecasted. Fourmile option exciting but awaiting Barrick's feasibility study to make informed decision. Will compete for capital against all other projects.

Natascha firmly reiterated internal focus, best investment is in own assets and buybacks. Three priorities remain: balance sheet strength, project investment, and shareholder returns.

Tom was emphatic: internal focus only, best use of capital is buybacks. Copper exposure will come organically from Red Chris block cave, Boddington and Cadia. No M&A appetite.

Tom confirmed 2026 ramp-up targets are robust but no upside expected. Ahafo North uses a proven flowsheet similar to Merian and Ahafo South.

Tom said Lihir will stay near current levels through 2027 stripping campaign, then see ~30% production increase from 2028 when higher grades from Phase 14a are accessed.

Tom decoupled the dividend from any specific gold price, $1/share annual dividend is fixed regardless of gold price assumptions.

Tom explained the one-year guidance is deliberate post-transformation. Focused on stabilization and high-confidence delivery before committing to multi-year outlook.

Kathleen detailed operating-model efficiencies, off-site labor and prefab work offsetting higher capital; answered directly.

Quirk noted cost inflation has been very regional with most significant impact in Indonesia and Asia. Many consumables are contractually negotiated providing near-term insulation, but lagging effects could emerge.

Quirk explained the higher diesel base assumption mechanically increases the dollar impact of a 10% sensitivity move. The 2027-2028 forecasts now embed higher diesel costs.

Quirk detailed plan to secure fixed vendor pricing by midyear to support investment decision. Added $150M in capital for front-end engineering. Key factors: workforce readiness, autonomous fleet performance, capital plan confidence, and operating efficiency.

Mark Johnson explained mud is at pit bottom with poor surface access. Additive approach discussed but discounted. Drilling and pumping approaches deemed more effective for mud removal.

Quirk confirmed PB1C is included in 2028-2029 numbers but represents only 2-3% of copper and 3-5% of gold production. Pre-incident it was closer to 7%.

Quirk said looking at Miami expansion (~30% increase) but greenfield would be very challenging citing 10-year Indonesia smelter timeline. Near-term focus on leach for refined copper growth.

Quirk said near-term plans are to sell Indonesia cathode in Asia but FCX has flexibility with no long-term contracts. US company ownership provides security of supply option.

Quirk noted FCX already has large US resource position plus integrated smelter/tankhouse infrastructure that could provide synergies. Will look opportunistically.

Quirk said El Abra economics work below $4 copper with higher IRR hurdle to compensate for Chile risk. EIS submission expected by year-end, permitting process takes several years.

Management said improved backlog pricing won't be realized until the next six to nine months, with strong volume offsetting near-term realized pricing.

Mark confirmed broad pipeline of strategic opportunities across all spaces. Aluminum industry reminds them of steel 30 years ago, hasn't earned cost of capital, reinvested, or grown. Massive supply deficit that will continue to grow. Sees tremendous opportunity in aluminum alongside continued steel innovation projects. Investment decisions guided by value-add differentiation.

Mark confirmed aluminum as a growth platform alongside continued steel expansion. Cited supply-demand dislocation as providing phenomenal opportunities. Team maintains pipeline of value-add opportunities across both steel and aluminum.

Theresa explained dividend grows with structural cash flow increases. Aluminum contribution could drive increase this year or next. In absence of dividend change, lean into variable share repurchase program.

Theresa confirmed considerable balance sheet capacity with current leverage well under 2x and $1.4B of incremental through-cycle EBITDA not yet realized adding further capacity. Committed to investment-grade ratings with significant room within current ratings. Declined to specify exact upper limit but confirmed under 2x on through-cycle basis.

Mark stated M&A focus would be downstream value-add opportunities, coating, painting, and value-add manufacturing that leverages core strengths and provides pull-through volume. No upstream interest. OmniSource already the largest North American recycler. Might see small regional yard additions but no major raw material moves.

Barry confirmed inventories declining with no new material coming behind. AD/CVD cases establish long-term precedents through sunset reviews. Expects return to normal profitability levels for value-added coated products.

Barry explained pipeline oxygen supply arrangement was disrupted by vendor maintenance problem affecting the entire Texas petroleum region. Evaluating on-site technology investments for reliability. Not expected to be a recurring issue.

Theresa emphasized growth orientation, investment grade commitment, and that consistent cash flow enables meaningful shareholder returns. Expects continued buybacks at attractive valuation.

Mark stated focus is on execution, getting Sinton profitable and ramping Aluminum Dynamics. No imminent large organic growth or M&A, though they continue evaluating opportunities.