Start 30 days free, no card. Full Pro access for a month, then decide. Start free
Analyst
Michael Ciarmoli
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2025 Q4 (5 quarters; questions recorded in 4).
- Questions
- 15on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 13%2 of 15 questions
- Companies
- 5questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 4with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 15 of 15 questions from 5 companies
NOCNorthrop Grumman5 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
Beacon, it looks like the testing is ramping up there. You've got six partners now. So just trying to think about how that impacts future financial performance
Show response
Warden said Beacon supports new autonomous competitions across services and international. Microelectronics does ~$1B/year with significant additional commercial interest.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I think previously you called out maybe $200 million in supply costs that have been removed. I mean, how are you thinking about that number
Show response
Warden confirmed $200M enterprise-wide cost efficiencies are holding, driven primarily by facility optimization and digital ecosystem rather than supplier pricing.
What Kathy, what's the process change at the request of the customer working with them to ramp faster and ultimately to deliver above the current stated volume
Show response
Warden confirmed joint decision with Air Force. Material cost increases include higher consumption and scrap/waste versus early program estimates.
Calendar 2024 Q4
We obviously have the broad majority of NATO countries reinvesting in their own defense industrial bases. Is there a scenario where they start to procure more domestically
Show response
Warden acknowledged European defense reconstitution but said NATO allies need mature U.S. programs like IBCS, E-2D, and Triton for rapid capability.
how are you viewing DOGE? And I know it's evolving seemingly on a regular basis here and there's a lot of different tweets
Show response
Warden framed DOGE as net positive, saying Northrop has embraced the opportunity to share observations and ideas for industry-government efficiency.
LHXL3Harris4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 1 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
Is MSL going to be a 100% merchant supplier model?
Show response
Kubasik confirmed no DOW stipulations on competitive positioning. MSL includes seekers and weapon release beyond SRMs. Focus on execution over chasing new prime roles.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Is this going to be your first foray into potentially competing as a prime for missiles?
Show response
Kubasik deferred on SBI prime vs sub decision, noting significant current demand as supplier. Bedingfield emphasized capacity delivery as top priority currently.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Do you have any assumptions for sort of the international growth trajectory? For the remainder of this year into '26
Show response
Kubasik confirmed international growing faster than domestic, minor bore pruning possible but no significant portfolio changes expected.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what do you guys see in the backlog that really drives the doubling of that growth rate from 2025 to 2026 when you strip out CAS?
Show response
Kubasik outlined portfolio alignment with defense priorities, international growth, AI partnerships, and F-35 recovery as 2026 growth drivers.
LMTLockheed Martin4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
Should we expect the share count to stay flat or go down this year? And then, Jim, I was wondering if you could elaborate, maybe even tying into Myles' question. You talked about $1 billion strateg...
Show response
Evan deferred share count to quarterly reporting. Jim explained F-35 sustainment investment addresses years of spare parts and repair capacity underfunding, with $1B+ already invested and now doubling down to improve mission-capable rates. Expects both financial and operational returns from the investment.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Is that related to the classified program? Or what's sort of the dynamic there given the volume growth on some of the core profitable legacy programs?
Show response
Evan explained front-end dilution from accelerated munitions ramp creates temporary margin pressure, but long-term confidence in MFC performance remains strong.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I just didn't know if that also, you know, took into account maybe weaker domestic F-35 volumes going forward
Show response
Maria noted multiyear growth now firmer at lower end given missile orders, rising international budgets, and supply chain execution. Jim cited F-35 sustainment growth on expanding fleet and CH-53K ramp.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Any changes with that under the new administration? And then just given supply chain and the new administration, should we think about that multiyear kind of framework being now firmly in mid-singl...
Show response
Jay noted supply chain approaching pre-COVID but discrete issues persist. Gaining confidence in 4-5% growth framework but wants more time before extending the multiyear view.
HWMHowmet Aerospace1 question · 1 reporting period · 1 of 1 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
are you overearning on the aerospace spares now? And is that driving the strong incrementals? Does that normalize at some point
Show response
Plant rejected overearning thesis, spares and OE pricing are identical in the short term. Confirmed spares will increase every year for the next 5 years through end of decade.
TDGTransDigm Group1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q1
what would you guys say is the typical lead time that you have? We're seeing the carriers make changes to capacity cutting routes
Show response
Mike confirmed commercial aftermarket is largely book-and-ship with a meaningful percentage shipping same quarter. Continued bookings strength through recent weeks. Takeoffs and landings is best gauge.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| NOC Northrop Grumman | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| LHX L3Harris | 4 | 25%1 of 4 questions |
| LMT Lockheed Martin | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions |
| HWM Howmet Aerospace | 1 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
| TDG TransDigm Group | 1 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 4 | 25%1 of 4 questions | 3 |
| 2025 Q1 | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q2 | No questions recorded | — | — |
| 2025 Q3 | 4 | 25%1 of 4 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q4 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 2 |
- 2024 Q44 questions · challenge rate 25% (1 of 4 questions) · 3 companies
- 2025 Q15 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q2No questions recorded
- 2025 Q34 questions · challenge rate 25% (1 of 4 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q42 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 2 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Competitive Dynamics4
- Demand4
- Revenue Growth4
- Geographic Expansion3
- Cost Pressure3
- M&A2
- Margin2
- Capital Allocation1
- Capex Investment1
- Innovation & R&D1
Show all 15 topics
- Trade Tariffs1
- Product Launch1
- Supply Chain1
- Guidance Reliability1
- Regulation Policy1