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the underlying loss ratio continues to show some healthy improvement. Is that -- if you can kind of talk about some of the drivers
Maybe you can kind of just elaborate on the Iran conflict, how you guys are thinking about that? Is it all IBNR, are there real losses or...
are there any items that would other than we could see the shrinkage in top line growth that could free up more capital
you said they North America rate environment largely keeping pace with trend, but international probably slightly below. I think I thought that was a bit of a provocative statement
If we're looking at the underlying loss ratio trend, it's it's nudging a bit higher into the low to low fifties.
Has anything changed quarter-over-quarter on maybe inorganic opportunities? Is U.S. small commercial still something that's on the retail small commercial still high up on the wish list?
do you have a view on what has also been the kind of exponential growth of the MGA marketplace and kind of how it's been impacting Arch
curious if your views on a normalized loss ratio is different than what it was in the past if we think about kind of the current cycle and the next cycle coming.
Would you say that expected ROEs are -- I don't know if you're willing to kind of put a corridor around them in the 20s, down from the 30s?
has anything changed over the last couple of quarters in terms of the mortgage outlook other than I think we clearly know the top line in the U.S. is going to continue to be negative.
is there kind of a specific pocket that's really high up on the wish list like U.S. retail, traditional main market? Or is it kind of a broad appetite to just go continue going kind of down market ...
Maybe can you kind of unpack what you mean by the London specialty market and maybe kind of help frame which lines in particular
Any kind of updates to your cat load guide, I believe it was 7 to 8 points when you updated us last, should we expect that number to move up a bit?
the catastrophe load guidance. Seven to eight it Probably just obvious, but that so that includes right. It's higher than the historical six day mostly because of the the one q California losses
if it if a DTA was influx, would it change materially or just a little bit?
Any comments on whether you know, what you're seeing And you're GL book. I know that, you know, you guys are one of the more honest ones.
You've done a great job explaining why the reinsurance helps ameliorate some of the downward pricing impacts
Would you say there are some major changes or major projects you feel strongly about starting once you're in your seat
whether we, as analysts should start embedding some -- a bit of loss ratio degradation as a result into our models
over time, as this technology is deployed throughout the entire organization that it will likely result in kind of a material change to the top line revenue trajectory relative to market conditions
given property is correcting a bit off of very healthy levels, we shouldn't eventually the retailers look to kind of find capacity and move some of that property out of the E&S market
Should we be thinking that the improvement is going to be a bit more kind of back-end loaded given the top line being weighted -- weighed down a bit by property rates
the process for an insurer to transform using AI. Is there a high cost of entry? Does it take a long time to get your data on the right form to be able to adopt?
Some of the competitors have talked about kind of seeing a decline in property, which has caused pricing to move down a bit as well. Is that accurate for AIG as well?
just curious if you're willing to give any specific more specific guidance on kind of what type of expense ratio level or acquisition expense ratio level we should be thinking about
are you experiencing any acceleration in casualty pricing, either excess or retail? And do you still feel that I feel like a couple of quarters ago, you mentioned this might be an area you're willi...
when pricing falls like it is today, your organic actually decouples and it stays, you know, usually positive. So I'm just curious in a market that you're describing of properties very soft and cas...
you showed $882 million and $171 million of M&A divestitures and other, you know, for 2025 versus last year. Think that includes life sales, assumption changes, etcetera. I mean, do we need help br...
on the organic viewpoint next year, what's your estimate of embedded in there on lumpy life sales
should we not be focusing on kind of the RPC as much as we used to because there's kind of other levers you have to pull on organic to be able to do so well next year on a decelerating kind of pric...
the one point of timing benefit in Brokerage organic, is that in addition to the $26 million reversal on Page 6 of the CFO commentary
The RPC stat that you began giving out in recent years, which is helpful, I think it was 4% this past quarter. And organic, obviously tremendous, five-plus points above
the company you're purchasing kind of didn't fully leverage its fiduciary income in that it was direct pay relationships
cadence of organic growth next year. Loud and clear, 6-8, no change. I guess, yes, for both segments
maybe a mix on reinsurance? Do you potentially have a greater mix towards casualty or specialty Europe-focused
health inflation for employers, at least some of the stats we've seen, it's expected to rise 25 versus 24
Auto claims process improvements, which have you know, clearly been supporting profitability in a big way
are there potential legislative changes in certain states that if things were enacted
Do you expect that engine to be very different or much larger over time?
do you agree that there's kind of the winds at your back because of the competitive environment
why not write it a slightly worse combined ratio, trade off some ROE for enable more sustainable organic growth
Curious if you think this could cause Allstate to also rethink its ambitions of growing or or just just overall growth in in California
are you able to kind of elaborate on what the building blocks are going forward to to to continue the improvements
Do you envision a future where Aon's productivity per employee could accelerate to much higher levels
Just want to make sure we shouldn't get over our skis given we know that 2Q is one of the biggest property quarters
Is this mostly fee-based? And is Aon getting a disproportionate share of this, you think? Or is it most of it going to the E&S market?
On the accelerating Aon United program, can you give us a flavor of how much cash spend remains? And is that kind of evenly spread out over the next 5 quarters?
Really is it just more of an issue of Brown being a bit overweight property and property's under a lot of pressure?
does that include contingency and exclude investment income?
the $23 million of lost revs, that's -- that's all we're going to see from the lost employees for the most part
should we be thinking about kind of that margin correlation? Or are there just -- there's a lot of moving pieces with the acquisition and just other structural things going on in the company?
I believe you have some businesses. I know this is maybe just hopefully short term, but that are impacted by the government shutdown
is there a trend we should just keep in the back of our heads as we think past 4Q about the lender-placed business just slowing or somehow maybe giving back some market share?
is there any underlying causes that's just causing the decel to be so much faster than I think we've seen historically?
if we do go into a low singles organic environment about a moderating profit margin kind of downward trajectory as well potentially?
did that come through in the Retail organic this quarter? And maybe you can size up how much seasonality there is
is it fair to kind of put in a bit of headwind from downwards property pricing, especially I think Brown is a bit of overweight Florida
has your views changed in recent months given advances in technology on the kind of the pace of the cadence of the digital transformation
What's causing the competition this time? Is it just simply what you've seen before and folks are getting excited about increasing their top line growth
just large account property, investors have asked us a lot of questions about just the extent of the price
Is there a way to kind of tease out or estimate how much of that is attributed to litigation finance
I'm curious if you can kind of give us some flavor of what you think catastrophe inflation is
much of our incoming from investors is focused on North America commercial social inflation, reserve releases
you’re painting a picture that Chubb’s competitive advantages are growing versus some of its peers
Would you say you are getting over the hump of more rearview-mirror there, or is it still to be determined
We saw elevated share repurchase levels—I think the highest we have seen in a while
is it fair, if we paint a broad brush, to say pricing power in commercial lines is still biased downwards
Does that just mean maybe the hit rate could be a bit lower on the larger premium stuff
In terms of the new reinsurance program that you detailed
is, there a fast and hard kind of ratio that if the equity markets still keep going up
you don't feel like we're going to enter a soft marketplace
The accident year loss ratio in work comp appears to be picked at a much higher level than in recent quarters and years
should we be still thinking that the guide on the expense ratio is kind of trying to get below 30%
anything in personal lines, maybe umbrella, other personal lines with large losses or anything that came through with the loss ratio there you'd like to call out?
would should we be thinking about that dynamic in terms of kind of your response would maybe be a tiny bit slower, if the tariffs do end up being impactful
Is Cincy considering buying additional reinsurance temporarily to protect itself through the remainder of the contract reinsurance terms?
when we has your mood or outlook changed a bit in terms of the top line growth trajectory in personal lines?
how much of that would you say is a reaction to since he's contractors industry exposure
You just talk about the lost cost inflation trend that you're seeing now and how that's changed throughout the year
is it fair for us to kind of put a small placeholder for some capital return from that transaction as well
is it fair for us to kind of bump up our cat loads a bit as we think about '26?
if this year was somewhat of a below average cat year, maybe disagree with that, at about $800 or so million of cats
it appears that you guys can do billions more buyback than the consensus is estimating at least starting in the back
once that's over, would that book start growing at kind of low doubles because that's where pricing is?
Is this now behind us? Or is there still some limit or, I guess, potential for movement there?
I thought historically, you do a ground-up on each line-of-business once per year
Is that being funded at all with the -- this federal home loan bank borrowings
could you walk through that same dynamic maybe for the $750 million you walked away from
quantify how much worse of a loss ratio is associated with the non-renewed business versus the retained business
Do you feel that HIG's operating strategy would kind of pivot or change materially to the extent the market continues to soften materially
Just curious if -- what caused that, if it's worth talking about
Will this cause technology to be a much bigger differentiator than the past? And if yes, you know, could it cause, you know, M&A
directionally if you'd be willing to kind of size up, you know, more than a less than a point maybe this quarter and for the full year
Mo made some comments about further opportunity for consolidation in that space. If you could elaborate, that would be great
Would you say folks in our seat might be focusing a bit too much on the ROE of the industry being healthy, whereas loss cost trend appears to be much more elevated
is it fair to say that over long periods of time, you're kind of trying to hit kind of a mid-80s versus the lower 80s today
that annualized investment yield ex LPs has kind of drifted in the mid-4s for over a year now despite the reinvestment yields being meaningfully higher
Do you feel that we're gonna continue to see pricing kind of move north on that line of business, which could offer some potential growth opportunities for Hartford
Are you able to kind of unpack how what's is it you know, are you kind of using relationships with, like, programized relationships with some of the big ENS carriers
does Lemonade have a goal to kind of lower that gross combined ratio materially over time towards the industry average?
Does it have something to do with -- on an NAIC statutory basis, we've always seen that Lemonade's claims, we call it denial rates, so claims closed with no payment has been materially higher
on the the pace of Marsh's hiring in terms of the producer level, do you expect that trajectory to change materially
Curious a couple of your peers have talked about the Claims Advocacy Group, and they've offered some stats around the how the Claims Advocacy Group has made sure your clients get their claims paid
When we think about Thrive, would you say that that encompasses a lot of the new AI technologies that you all are deploying, or should we expect kind of a more to come
should we expect consulting to lead the pack on organic while maybe risk runs a bit lower given the backdrop in P&C
that's a really good ratio versus many of your peers and maybe even you all historically. So is there maybe you can you know, usually, like, there's more cost
are you kind of telling us we should be kind of expecting at least the U.S. side of organic to be kind of running along the current trend line
Usually, we think nominal GDP is kind of the biggest corollary and very secondary kind of would be pricing power levels
you still feel like there's uncertainties at a level where you feel comfortable being able to manage the profit margin piece of the business
would you expect at a macro level global property rates that continue to be a negative territory
are you guys adopting a similar playbook right now given the uncertainty to kind of manage your expenses
the $4.5 billion of deploy guide for '25 and no change year-over-year
now you told us the Marsh index, pricing index is down too. And so, I'm assuming there's some right sensitivity to your revenues
Maybe you can elaborate on what specific technologies are driving those efficiency gains
Are you willing to kind of maybe elaborate more on why Progressive chose a very large special dividend earlier this year
I'm curious if advances in recent months or quarters have kind of materially changed Progressive's view on the ability for the, let's say, the combined ratio, the LAE ratio to benefit from efficien...
just kind of curious where should we expect that ratio to stay negative in '26 or maybe it will revert back to positive territory later in the year
slightly negative for a while now, which appears to be different from the kind of the flattish pricing you've been speaking to
were you signaling a change in capital management tone by stating the buyback language?
you mentioned that the 8.9 product model and about 50% of your premiums is demonstrating favorable conversion results and elasticity.
are shopping levels still materially above kind of what you -- what Progressive would consider the normal long-term trend line?
I'm curious you don't call out severity being higher due to that mix shift as well.
On policy growth seasonality, historically, this time of the year exhibit faster growth.
the tailwind from pricing increases has looks like it's meaningfully moderated.
your reserve releases over the last year or more, it kind of implies that loss trend has been a bit below the historical stated trend. Would you agree with that
I believe you said that pricing would start to move to mid-single digits. If we look at The Travelers Companies, Inc. historical loss trend in home, it looks like it is well into the double digits
Would you be able to share what you maybe roughly expect your organic headcount growth or shrinkage to be
in casualty commercial, maybe non-workers' comp, was the change in pricing kind of sequentially?
Curious if your view on loss cost inflation has changed at all or directionally, is it the I feel like you've only
If you can kind of remind us what do we expect RPC to eventually fall? Are those terms and conditions changes going
unpack kind of the reacceleration we've seen in pricing. Do you feel this is more a traveler-specific
It appears that social inflation levels are rising. Would you agree with that viewpoint
is it just fair to assume, given the workers' comp pricing is still a bit negative on real pricing?
Most releases we've seen in a couple of years, good to see. Any -- I heard the prepared remarks, the high level
can you maybe remind us, are there like circumstances when you are increasing your leverage
how Berkley views loss trend in GL, umbrella, commercial auto
from just -- as a competitor, though, have you seen this kind of cycle before that until there's real pain and ROEs start eroding
is that if to the extent pricing continues to moderate, should we would it be normal for the policy growth
pivoting, Rob, to the medical inflation environment as it pertains to your work comp
going back to the macro crashing that, you know, with the tariffs
why is Rob bearish on kind of workers' comp if profits are so good and still continues to release a lot of reserves
is project-based mean like more nonrecurring or onetime that we should kind of be considering in our run rate on a go forward?
Looking at the interest income levels, very healthy, better than expected. Is that the run rate or any one-timers we should be considering?