Patrick Moley

Galik framed the integration as consistent with IBKR's role as a broker offering connectivity to growing marketplaces and increased liquidity.

Milan explained the pattern: rising markets drive account openings while volatility increases DARTs. He expected continuity with historical patterns.

Milan directly addressed the opportunity, noting that smaller individual accounts will be able to trade more frequently, viewing the regulatory change as a positive for IBKR.

Paul cited the Massachusetts ruling against Kalshi as evidence of ongoing regulatory uncertainty for sports contracts, but emphasized IBKR does not rely on sports, ForecastX focuses on elections, economic indicators, and climate contracts.

Paul ruled out sports betting acquisitions. Thomas added that ForecastEx is growing organically with 10,000+ instruments and 24/7 trading, so there is no reason to pursue acquisitions in the prediction market space.

Thomas gave a brief response indicating the dual-track approach of adding broker partners while also driving adoption among existing IBKR direct clients.

Thomas declined to share margin loan customer breakdown, but noted the appetite for risk has grown in momentum-driven markets, with clients trading stock on leverage rather than cheap option bets, which he views favorably since exposure fees indicate riskier positioning.

Milan remains disappointed with crypto share gains despite cost advantages and hopes asset transfer capability will be the catalyst, as clients currently must sell and redeposit cash to switch.

Milan broadly stated the current environment is favorable for all brokerage and investment banking firms, with IBKR particularly well positioned.

Milan cited SEC enforcement pullback, Coinbase lawsuit dismissal, and rescinded balance sheet accounting guidance as catalysts. Noted crypto growth is slower than expected despite competitive pricing.

Milan distinguished between ForecastEx the exchange (which will list sports contracts for other FCMs) and IBKR the broker (which has not decided whether to offer them to its own clients).

Thomas acknowledged slow progress but expressed conviction in prediction markets becoming a huge market, noting careful and deliberate approach to building out the business.

Milan outlined EU crypto expansion plans and expressed cautious optimism on US regulatory clarity, while noting concern about meme coins potentially damaging the industry's reputation.

Terry gave a candid, frustrated response contrasting the stay with other approved 40.2 filings and questioning the commission's rationale.

Suzanne Sprague detailed tokenization efforts with FICC and Google, including stablecoin exploration. Terry added CME is looking at multiple ways to grow the $85B daily margin efficiencies.

Terry firmly stated perpetuals violate the Commodity Exchange Act and are designed for speculators, not hedgers. He noted CME was not informed of the S&P perpetual license and has engaged aggressively with S&P on IP concerns.

Tim McCourt noted new market makers from sports ecosystem reaching out. Terry confirmed meeting with new CFTC Chairman Selig who is committed to overseeing prediction markets as legal swaps.

Terry stated CME is operationally ready for sports events pending federal government approval. Emphasized CME is not opposed but needs regulatory clarity. Cautious about political event contracts.

Terry raised concerns about whether parlays meet swap definition of economic benefit under the Commodity Exchange Act. Noted government was closed 3 of 4 weeks since parlays launched.

Terry declined to comment on pending litigation. Reiterated no accrual has been recorded to date. Would not speculate on outcomes.

Lynne declined to comment on use of proceeds given expected close is six months away. Terry added no anticipated regulatory hurdles on closing.

Terry Duffy positioned the FCM license as strategic preparedness for potential market structure changes, explicitly stating no current plans to disintermediate existing FCM partners.

Julie Winkler detailed retail growth with traders up 6%, NCA up 23% YoY, and micro volume up 11%. Robinhood doing phased rollout with more broker partners coming in 2025.

Hocking described strong retail-led demand and a late-Sept/early-Oct KPI launch pending approval; Jill confirmed nothing incremental is baked into 2026 guidance. Partial on revenue.

Craig broke down the 19% DataVantage growth (access, market data, one-time historic dataset sales) and declined to call low double digits a new baseline.

Ken Hill and Craig explained full-year timing variability. Craig provided color: 45% overseas sales (vs 35% a year ago), 3 of top 5 recurring sales from APAC, strong option-embedded ETF demand. Comfortable with mid-to-high guide.

Craig explained pivot to largest growth opportunities in core businesses and emerging areas (prediction/crypto/retail). Jill noted organic investment won't be material; 2026 guidance in February.

Craig emphasized optimizing core growth and leaning into secular trends. On M&A: nothing needed right now, will be disciplined and rigorous, must be compelling strategically and financially.

Fred explained thorough process reviewing internal and external candidates. Craig chosen for global derivatives experience, CEO track record, industry reputation, and regulatory relationships.

Jill clarified the new language is consistent with prior 7-10% range, just simplified to market standards. Direct rebuttal of the premise.

Vlad rejected the premise of hesitation and cited a crowded roadmap, but again declined to commit to a US perps timeline.

Vlad confirmed strong EU perpetuals growth on Bitstamp, increasing leverage per customer requests. U.S. launch requires rule changes; current domestic offerings are not true perpetuals.

Vlad emphasized customer-first approach over pure economics, analogizing to equities and crypto order routing prioritizing execution quality. Shiv clarified current $0.02 per contract splits 1¢ FCM/1¢ exchange; Rothera gives control over full unit economics with Robinhood owning 45% of JV.

Vlad emphasized distribution advantage with 26M+ funded accounts and multi-asset platform as competitive moat. On vertical integration, argued prediction market exchanges will commoditize like equity/options venues, so power stays in distribution. No plans to become an exchange, prefers routing to competing DCMs.

Jason confirmed revolve rates in line with hopes and book performing well. Vlad explained balance lag is normal, takes time for revolve to ramp after cardholder additions.

Vlad confirmed futures volumes are incremental. Cross-asset trading behavior validates multi-product platform thesis. Futures enable short positions and 24-hour trading for active traders.

Vlad clarified no tech barriers exist, regulatory framework for crypto asset securities is the bottleneck. Jason added SEC guidance on security-type coins and staking is encouraging.

Alesia declined to give per-product outlook but cited strong green shoots from Everything Exchange, with non-crypto contracts 4x QoQ.

Brian cited strong interest including Super Bowl weekend momentum. Launched via Kalshi partnership (not exclusive). Has ability to launch own markets but nothing to announce yet. Adding more markets and sports hub.

Brian pointed to DEX integration and US perps as already-live milestones, then deferred further details to the December 17 H2 product event livestream. No specific timeline for tokenized equities.

Brian explained brokerage-layer fees persist regardless of routing to centralized or decentralized exchange. Additional monetization from DEX investments and Base sequencer fees. No cannibalization concern expressed.

Brian discussed CFTC progress on perpetual futures but was vague on timeline for US options. Noted 39 new perps books added internationally, 4 in US. Emilie said US options path needs CFTC work.

Brian acknowledged the shift to ~1M tokens/week and compared it to early internet directories needing Google Search. Outlined DEX integration strategy balanced with consumer protection and disclosures.

Adena characterized the IPO pipeline as a broad-based recovery across AI infrastructure, healthcare/biotech, defense, and consumer, not just megadeals.

Friedman acknowledged tokenization could improve retail engagement during go-public process but does not envision fundamental change to IPO process. Investor engagement and underwriting support in early trading days remain valuable regardless of settlement technology.

Friedman highlighted early uptick from expanded expirations in MAG seven names, framing shorter-dated options as structural trend enabling more precise risk management. Noted it's only been live a week with plans to expand thoughtfully.

Friedman noted Calypso US conversations paused a few weeks in March-April but normalized by May-June. AxiomSL implementations still elongated from regulatory uncertainty.

Friedman walked through each FinTech subdivision showing robust demand, noting delays limited to larger Calypso decisions going further up the chain while other businesses accelerating.

Friedman explained FCM growth driven by three pillars: SMB banks, Tier 1/2 expansion, and global. Tier 1 and global still early innings driving low-end outlook.