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Analyst
Rafe Jadrosich
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q2 (8 quarters).
- Questions
- 41on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 5%2 of 41 questions
- Companies
- 5questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 8with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 41 of 41 questions from 5 companies
DHID. R. Horton14 questions · 8 reporting periods · 0 of 14 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
can you remind us the lag between when lumber prices move and when it shows up in your gross margin
Show response
Bill said lumber price changes take two to three quarters to flow into delivered-home gross margin.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Can you talk about your exposure to land banking, maybe as a percentage of the option mix and then your ability to actually slow down the pace of the lot takedowns
Show response
Murray said land banking is mid-single-digit percent of lot portfolio. Most lots from third-party developers or Forestar. Have been working with developers to adjust takedown schedules.
can you help us at all with how we should think about the community count growth in the second half of the year
Show response
Hansen said still up low double-digit YoY. Sales up 11% matching community count growth with no absorption decline, a positive sign. Expects moderation to mid-single-digit but timing uncertain.
Calendar 2025 Q4
can you compare the market today versus, say, a year ago in terms of the demand and inventory that's out there
Show response
Romanowski said more balanced inventory vs. a year ago. Encouraged by traffic and interest. Comfortable with community count, inventory position, and field teams heading into spring.
Is it flattening out now Or is there still opportunity to take more cost out
Show response
Romanowski said still opportunity for stick and brick savings. Prior starts reduction was intentional to negotiate with trades and suppliers. Guide is flat but believes further reductions possible.
Calendar 2025 Q3
the delivery outlook seems like it's more second half weighted. Can you talk about like the starts pace and community count that you're assuming
Show response
Romanowski acknowledged starts need to increase materially from 14,600. Wheat said community count growth moderating to mid-to-high single digit but still up double digits currently.
Can you just tell us what the year-over-year increases on lot cost? And then what you'd expect that to be through 2026
Show response
Hansen said lot costs up 8% YoY per square foot with best case mid-single-digit and could remain high-single-digit as it takes time to flow through to closings.
Calendar 2025 Q2
If we were to sort of normalize for that, what are you seeing for sort of underlying lot cost and inflation and just given some of the softness in the market more recently
Show response
Romanowski said near-term lot cost inflation expected to persist at mid-single-digit. Relief from any market softness would take several quarters to flow through to closings.
when you compare the performance in the larger markets that you operate versus some of the smaller markets, maybe where you have more private competition. Is there a big difference
Show response
Romanowski said secondary markets with less public builder competition are showing better performance to plan this year than larger markets with more public builder competition.
Calendar 2025 Q1
you've pulled back on starts here and the market is a little bit softer. Have you seen any relief there on land
Show response
No relief in land costs despite softer market. Lot costs up 3% QoQ and 10% YoY. Still very difficult to bring communities online.
Is that just an improvement on delivery growth that will get you leverage? Or is that like if the market flow remains soft, you would reduce spending
Show response
Near-term leverage from seasonal volume improvement in H2. Longer-term, market-level adjustments to overhead if volume weakness persists.
Calendar 2024 Q4
have you continued that pace of buyback quarter-to-date? And then how do we think about sort of the pace as we go through the year
Show response
Repurchase pace continued into early Q2 given low stock price. No change in overall strategy, flexibility to accelerate on valuation dips.
Can you just run us in what that implies for the year-over-year trend? And then how do we think about that for the remainder of the year
Show response
Lot costs up 10% YoY, 3% sequentially. Base case for continued low-to-mid single-digit sequential increases. YoY should moderate over next few quarters.
Calendar 2024 Q3
Can you talk about what you're anticipating for land inflation in the first quarter and then through 2025
Show response
Lot cost inflation moderating from double-digit to high-single-digit, expected to reach mid-single-digit through FY2025.
BLDRBuilders FirstSource12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
And then can you just talk about the inbound and outbound freight impact from higher diesel prices?
Show response
Beckmann held the full-year fuel headwind, split inbound through cost of goods sold and outbound through SG&A, and cited a 20% rise in surcharge pass-through.
On the market share commentary, I think you said you held share in the second quarter.
Show response
Jackson gave a qualitative answer and flagged it as an emotional rather than data-driven read on optimism fading through the quarter.
Calendar 2026 Q1
You are above the sort of target, the long-term target leverage range, but you bought back $300 million. Can you just talk about that decision and strategy going forward?
Show response
CFO walked through capital deployment priority stack: balance sheet first, then core investment, then M&A, then buybacks. Opportunistic purchase during Middle East-driven dip.
could you just help us understand how you handle sort of higher diesel costs and some of the inflation.
Show response
CFO confirmed diesel passed through via surcharges and embedded pricing. Both inbound and outbound fuel costs not insignificant. Evaluating closely.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I'm wondering if you could sort of just remind us on what you saw in terms of market share through the year
Show response
CFO detailed share analysis: Q3 flat to slightly up, YTD flat after structural adjustments. Starts down ~5% lag basis vs 8% sales decline. CEO sees this as evidence of approaching bottom.
on a year-over-year basis, has been down by more than lumber over the last few quarters. That spread, is that just the different end market exposure
Show response
CFO attributed to multifamily lapping hitting both truss and now millwork. CEO added pressure across the board from deleverage of value-add facilities. EWP also facing headwinds.
Calendar 2025 Q2
your EBITDA margin is 300 basis points above where you were in 2019. It'd be helpful if you could just talk about like how much of that is mix, productivity, scale?
Show response
CEO attributed improvement to value-add mix shift (M&A and organic) and continuous improvement culture. Both factors considered durable and real.
if starts stay where we are today for the extended period of time just because of the macro, are there levers that you could pull from a cost perspective?
Show response
CEO noted 70% variable SG&A already adjusting, some fixed cost chunks available. Maintaining strategic vision while managing near-term. Equilibrium forming on share and margin.
Calendar 2025 Q1
is that more on the commodity side or manufactured products? And is that -- are you seeing that broad-based across the country?
Show response
CEO explained commodities were attacked first, other categories followed more slowly. Regional differentiation based on utilization and competitive intensity.
it implies second half growth over the first half, which is a little bit stronger than what you've done sort of historically. Can you just talk about some of the assumptions
Show response
CFO attributed to normal seasonality, multifamily stabilization, and acquisition contributions in back half. Not assuming a ramp or market recovery.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Can you just talk about how big that is today as a percentage of either EBITDA or revenue? What is the margin profile of install
Show response
CFO confirmed install at 16-17% of sales (~$1.7B), margins in line with installed product categories, with many opportunities to expand.
at the 2023 Investor Day, some of the long-term targets you laid out, you were assuming 4% market outgrowth from share gains
Show response
CEO acknowledged Investor Day targets are a long putt. Share gains in 2025 are modest, centered on digital with focus on defending existing share.
MASMasco8 questions · 4 reporting periods · 1 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
what's sort of the offset that's letting you hold the full year plumbing revenue guide?
Show response
Pointed to first-half plumbing up low single digits net of the investments as the basis for holding the full-year guide.
were they contemplated in the previous guidance? And are they associated with any specific opportunities
Show response
Confirmed plainly that the investments were not in prior guidance and were an opportunistic use of the refund.
Calendar 2026 Q1
how much would you attribute to just broader consumer resilience and the category holding up relative to your market share outperforming
Show response
Jon attributed beat to both category resilience and share gains, with share gains likely the larger contributor. All channels contributing, firing on all cylinders.
can you talk about what the copper price is embedded in guidance for the second half of the year
Show response
Rick declined specific copper assumption but indicated late-2025 levels as reasonable baseline. $6+/lb represents a headwind. Taking proactive cost reduction, efficiency, and pricing actions to mitigate. Volatile environment requires ongoing monitoring.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how much of that of the impact is being like in your P&L today? And how do we think about that going forward
Show response
Rick confirmed vast majority of tariff cost hits in H2, with Q3 including $15M from 145% China window (hopefully onetime). $270M annualized is the go-forward run rate, subject to geopolitical changes.
are you -- is the plan to fully mitigate in 2026? And then of those, you listed a few things that you're shifting supply chain pricing
Show response
Rick confirmed goal of full dollar + margin offset but declined to commit to 2026 timeline specifically. Will provide 2026 expectations on February call. Sourcing footprint is largest lever but takes time.
Calendar 2025 Q2
what did you see in terms of what you saw in terms of sell-through in the second quarter? And like what drove the improvement
Show response
Rick confirmed strong underlying demand beyond pre-buy effect, particularly in e-commerce and trade channels. Expects continued market outperformance.
can you just give some more color on like what the exposure there is by country
Show response
Rick declined country-level exposure detail beyond China $450M. The $70M non-China covers reciprocal tariffs plus steel/aluminum across the diversified sourcing base.
PHMPulteGroup6 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
How do we think about the starts versus closings cadence in the second half of the year
Show response
Management said spec reduction is essentially complete and starts will link more tightly to sales as BTO grows.
The debt to cap at 12%, obviously, it's pretty low. What would you have to see to bring that higher
Show response
Management said capital needs drive leverage decisions and it sees no argument for more debt in the current environment.
Calendar 2025 Q3
can you talk about where you are in terms of finished specs per community today and where you want that to be
Show response
Marshall quantified finished specs at ~2 per community vs ideal ~1.2. Expects to normalize in 2026 while increasing build-to-order sales mix.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Can you talk about when that would potentially start to flow through your P&L and on the actual cost side?
Show response
Marshall outlined typical 12-18 month lag from land savings to P&L impact: 6-9 month development cycle plus 4-month construction, so savings today benefit late 2026.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Just can you talk about from a regional perspective were there meaningful differences with the incentive level?
Show response
Marshall declined to provide regional incentive breakdown, redirecting to earlier buyer-group discussion. Company does not disclose incentives at regional level.
Can you just talk about how you would expect that to trend sort of through '25 or maybe even to '26, like the land that you're contracting today
Show response
Marshall noted raw land price stabilization but continued pressure from horizontal development wages and materials. 85%+ of development managed internally.
ALLEAllegion1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
how do you think about kind of quantifying the prebuy relative to the sell-through rate there?
Show response
Wagnes said retail inventories were normal and resi strength reflected true consumer demand in electronics rather than stocking, and flagged a tough Q3 comp.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| DHI D. R. Horton | 14 | 0%none of 14 questions |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource | 12 | 8%1 of 12 questions |
| MAS Masco | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions |
| PHM PulteGroup | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions |
| ALLE Allegion | 1 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 | 1 | 0%none of 1 question | 1 |
| 2024 Q4 | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions | 3 |
| 2025 Q1 | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions | 2 |
| 2025 Q2 | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q3 | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q4 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2026 Q1 | 6 | 17%1 of 6 questions | 3 |
| 2026 Q2 | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions | 5 |
- 2024 Q31 question · challenge rate 0% (none of 1 question) · 1 company
- 2024 Q46 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 3 companies
- 2025 Q14 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 2 companies
- 2025 Q27 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q37 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q42 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2026 Q16 questions · challenge rate 17% (1 of 6 questions) · 3 companies
- 2026 Q28 questions · challenge rate 13% (1 of 8 questions) · 5 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Cost Pressure14
- Demand9
- Competitive Dynamics9
- Pricing8
- Margin7
- Inventory5
- Revenue Growth5
- Supply Chain4
- Capital Allocation4
- Geographic Expansion3
Show all 15 topics
- Trade Tariffs3
- Guidance Reliability2
- Capex Investment2
- Macroeconomic1
- Credit1