Tim Arcuri

Cristiano noted customer engagement predated the Alphawave acquisition, with Alphawave increasing execution capabilities and IP portfolio for a multi-generation relationship.

Akash confirmed 20% share assumption for fall phones with no product relationship beyond that, noting sell-side models of approximately $2 billion in QCT Apple revenue for FY27.

Alex Rogers confirmed no Huawei update. Views Huawei and the other large customer renewals as significantly distinct paths. Early renewal discussions with large customer already underway.

Akash denied any factor beyond revenue scale and higher OpEx. Cristiano added market-wide adjustment consistent with peers. Normal seasonality also a factor for Chinese premium launches.

Akash confirmed Apple share played out as expected (3 of 4 models). September upside was not from Apple but from Android premium tier with new Snapdragon chip launch.

Alex Rogers confirmed no update on Huawei license. Discussions underway but nothing substantive to report.

Cristiano cited Shanghai Auto Show partnerships and no signs of China customer defection. Product relevance for global ambitions of Chinese customers sustains positioning.

Akash confirmed normal seasonality for Android/Auto/IoT but Apple share declining to ~70% for fall 2025 launches. Macro remains the primary uncertainty.

Akash declined to give quarterly PC revenue breakdown, redirecting to annual update cadence and 10% retail share metric as progress toward 12% long-term target.

Cristiano clearly stated modeling assumptions: 20% share for 2026 launch, no renewal assumed for 2027. For 2025, share expected between 100% and 20%.

Palkhiwala explicitly denied tariff-driven pull-forward, attributing the customer-level swings to launch cadence and timing of chipset purchases, not share shifts.

Brice committed to outgrowing the market and confirmed the raise path (>20% to >30% to higher) but declined to name a number, citing no out-quarter guide.

Brice guided investors to assume linear dollar growth from Q3 through fiscal Q1. Gary clarified supply chain is the pacing factor, not demand.

Gary declined to comment specifically on Huawei restrictions but confirmed all impacts are factored into the quarterly guide and calendar year growth outlook.

Brice acknowledged the thought is fair but declined to give a specific capacity number, noting prepositioned space available and focus on working with 2,000 suppliers to scale.

Brice pointed to recast tables in the press release and confirmed AGS should grow low double digits or better, supported by 55,000-tool installed base growing 5%+ annually.

Brice noted $110M ships in Q1 from pre-built tools but the remaining $600M requires cycle time to plan and build. The add-back will spread through the year as supply chain catches up. On PVD concerns, Gary expressed strong confidence with deep 4-generation visibility.

Brice declined to give a full-year AGS number but noted core AGS growing low double digits with 200mm equipment dragging headline growth. For WFE timing, noted 7% year-to-date growth with durable trends but did not commit to H1/H2 weighting.

Brice acknowledged Chinese vendors have advantages from trade rules but noted Applied gained share in all markets outside China. Gary pointed to strong positions in leading-edge logic, DRAM, HBM, and packaging.

Brice expects WFE intensity to decrease slightly from elevated levels but remain in the mid-teens, with Gary noting increasing materials engineering intensity at advanced nodes.

Brice quantified GAA increment at approximately one-sixth of the $7B total per 100K WSPM, noting most leading-edge logic shipments now target GAA nodes.

Bettinger gave directional colour on upgrades, spares and advanced services but explicitly declined to quantify segment guidance.

Answered both drivers and gave a timeframe of several years, though without an annual cadence figure.

Doug detailed factory proximity efficiencies, lower logistics costs, and value-based pricing; Tim added tool reliability improvements reducing warranty costs.

Tim confirmed strong demand but declined to comment on specific customers, noting more companies likely entering the semiconductor space as a future opportunity.

Doug declined to quantify the constraint gap but said plans are fluid as customers try to bring facilities online faster, and noted it sets up 2027 as another good year.

Doug acknowledged some pull-in from 2026 H1, which he now sees as flat to slightly up from 2025 H2, with HBM and broader demand slightly better.

Doug confirmed December revenue will be down to roughly the March level, consistent with flat half-on-half WFE, which also partly explains the gross margin step down.

Tim declined specifics but cited a flexible global supply chain built over recent years, including US and Asia operations, that enables agile optimization.

Doug reiterated gross margin staying in a tight range, with customer concentration headwinds offset by Asia operations tailwind.

Management confirmed overall WFE up in 2025 but China lower and a smaller share of revenue, deferring specifics to the January call.

Rafael reaffirmed the $2-3B CapEx range, leaning to the higher end given demand, and cautioned the ITC can be choppy as assembly/test capex is outside the US.

Haviv declined to split guidance between industrial and data center but confirmed both strong. Automotive Q1 China was down, rest of world up, holding near peak levels.

Haviv confirmed Q1 was continuation of Q4 trends, led by industrial and data center. Industrial signal was broader across all sectors and geographies, accelerating through the quarter.

Rafael said TI is pleased with inventory and capacity positioning and will adjust loadings as needed based on demand visibility through the year.

Haviv clarified the mid-single-digit revenue comment was about maintenance CapEx only (no-growth baseline). Rafael explained beyond 2026, CapEx intensity is ~1.2x long-term revenue growth gross, which nets to ~1x after ITC benefits.

Haviv said Q3 was more consistent than Q2 without the late-quarter moderation. Mike confirmed turns business followed expected cyclical recovery patterns without Q2's early-quarter spike.

Rafael explained loadings are being adjusted down in Q4 to maintain $4.8B inventory levels given lower revenue, with higher depreciation adding further gross margin pressure.

Haviv confirmed China at ~20% of revenue aligned with GDP share, highlighted consignment inventory and geopolitically dependable capacity as key tools for navigating tariffs.

Haviv attributed Q1 strength to cyclical recovery rather than tariffs, citing broad industrial recovery and low customer inventories, but acknowledged possible inventory build desire in Q2.

Jensen argued nearly all open models run on NVIDIA and that both closed and open models drive its sales, dismissing the trade-off framing.

Jensen framed LPX as a niche product for high-token-rate premium services with limited throughput and context processing, estimating the addressable market at 10-20% depending on AI maturity.

Colette defended ecosystem and supply investments as the priority while reiterating ongoing buybacks and dividends, without committing to an accelerated repurchase.

Jensen acknowledged all factors as constraints but stressed NVIDIA's multi-decade supply-chain relationships, partnerships on land, power and financing, and confidence in routes to market.

Jensen cited $180B in AI-native startup funding YTD (vs $100B all of last year), AI-native startup revenue going from $2B to $20B with 10x next year not inconceivable, and widespread H100/H200 sell-outs as evidence of sustained demand.

Jensen said the new export limits make it impossible to reduce Hopper further and that NVIDIA has no product to announce for China today but is considering limited options.

Jensen laid out four reasons NVIDIA wins vs ASICs: architectural generality across model types, end-to-end stack coverage, perf-per-watt leadership directly driving revenue for power-capped AI factories, and the complexity of delivering and scaling a software ecosystem that is 10x more complex than two years ago.

Colette addressed the margin trajectory (low-70s during ramp, recovering to mid-70s), but Jensen did not commit to a specific crossover quarter, saying Hopper demand will continue through several quarters.

Mosley clarified units are not increasing but average heads per drive is rising. Romano added HAMR cycle time is longer than PMR so some PMR heads used to keep unit levels stable.

Romano confirmed volume and pricing are locked for all of calendar 2026 via POs. For 2027, volume indications and agreements are in place but pricing is not yet fixed.

Mosley explained the HAMR transition involves long wafer lead times and factory retooling that can't be switched quickly. Qualification doesn't immediately translate to full volume.

Mosley confirmed demand exceeds supply capacity. Customers are working with Seagate on qualification timelines which provides long-term visibility into exabyte needs.

Romano pushed back on double ordering, noting demand is genuinely strong. Mosley added BTO contracts provide enforcement and data center investments are not temporal.

Mosley and Romano clarified the $200M is material not started in time and not recoverable, but June returns to the right supply level to match demand.

Asked whether growth flattens with Seagate at max capacity; Dave said exabyte capacity expands through technology transitions to higher-capacity drives without major capital additions.

Murphy acknowledged broad engagements across all US hyperscalers but did not confirm or deny compute TAM entry directly; emphasized current targets are based on designs already won.

Murphy reiterated Q4 FY2025 data center mix (optics ~50%, custom ~25%, other ~25%) but declined to update quarterly. Acknowledged AI trending toward majority of total company but couldn't pinpoint exact quarter.

Murphy declined to give exact quarterly AI mix but indicated trajectory toward AI becoming majority of total company revenue, not just data center. Deferred specific AI revenue target to future update.

Murphy confirmed custom business runs below company average gross margin. Meintjes added second-half gross margin expected in similar range as Q2 guide, with custom demand growing strongly.

Murphy declined to put a specific number on FY2026 AI revenue, saying the company is 'leaving this year open-ended' and will find the right time to update the target.

Arcuri clarified the mix percentages were for total data center, not just AI. Murphy confirmed.

Phil only guides one quarter but sees nothing suggesting abnormal seasonality for back half. Book-to-bill above 1, lean inventories, strong demand signals across customer base.

Phil expressed confidence in content position at largest customer with no unusual signals. Android win validates technology play and value proposition. Not seeing anything unusual on seasonality despite industry chatter.

Philip Carter confirmed $1.6B cash, $1B debt, with ample flexibility. Some requirements exist during pendency period. Announced 71-cent dividend. Must maintain financial prudence ahead of debt market access for deal closing.

Phil acknowledged competitive pricing dynamics are always present at largest customer but noted Skyworks is supply-constrained and not seeing pricing pressure. Acknowledged dynamic could change going forward.

Kris pushed back on pull-in suggestion, confirmed demand tracking expectations. Largest customer expected up 5-10% sequentially in December.

Kris cited M&A optionality and $1.6B cash/$1B debt balance sheet but declined to share specific buyback considerations as a matter of policy.

Rich confirmed customers are essentially ordering to consumption now, broadly true across end markets, with no evidence of restocking activity.

Vince confirmed Maxim synergies in the hundreds of millions against $1B target by 2027, possibly achievable earlier. Rich confirmed Q2 normal seasonality is up mid-single digits.

Rich confirmed channel inventories remain lean with end demand still double digits below consumption, but expects some catch-up to end demand in Q4. Industrial guided up low to mid-teens sequentially.

Mike provided clear seasonal framework of mid-single-digit Q2 growth at company level. Rich noted total bookings returned to growth with book-to-bill below one reflecting seasonal Q1 outlook.

Hock said supply for 2026-2027 is secured with 2028-29 in progress, and that customers coming for incremental supply can largely be accommodated.

Hock pushed back directly, said yields are dialed in and AI-mix margin impact will be minimal. Kirsten agreed, said impact 'not going to be substantial at all.'

Hock dismissed UA Link and NVLink as proprietary despite marketing, said Ethernet will continue to prevail for scale-up.

Hock confirmed the 7 million unit / $60-90B FY27 SAM framework includes only the three current customers; the four new engagement partners would be incremental to that number.

Irving said production varies by mix and capacity; not a fixed ceiling. Don added client/consumer seasonal volumes could return in seasonal periods.

Irving noted healthy customer relationships with POs backing LTAs. Not a fan of take-or-pay clauses; prefers working with customers on demand smoothing.

Challenged whether customers could place shadow orders; management clarified the agreements are visibility-driven, not take-or-pay, direct.

Thad confirmed 25-30 bps of gross margin per point of utilization and reaffirmed further margin expansion into Q4 on a consistent mix.

Thad said the exits are done, the $35 million was the Q2 impact, and annualizing Q1-Q2 gets to roughly $300 million for the year, about $900 million exited over recent years.