Timna Tanners

Leon pointed to the 'expand beyond' bucket and megatrend adjacencies but declined to name targets, promising buybacks and dividends if deals do not clear the return bar. Attribution inferred (Josh-approved 2026-07-29): the vendor transcript labels this turn 'Lawson Winder', but four independent signals place it with Timna Tanners. Leon Topalian opens the answer 'Yes, absolutely, Tim.' and used the identical address on Timna's confirmed turn ('Well, look, Tim, I'll kick it off'); no one addresses Lawson as Tim anywhere on the call. The question opens 'congrats on your 30 years as well', picking up Leon's 'as I celebrate my 30 years in Nucor' from INSIDE his answer to Timna. Brad Ford separately addresses Lawson correctly ('Yes. Law...') on the Brandenburg turn, so the transcript does distinguish them. This call carries NO operator introduction lines, so the speaker label has no corroboration.

Leon walked through each project's contribution timing and reaffirmed the $150 million EBITDA target for towers and structures, but gave no quarter-by-quarter dollar quantification.

Costs down YoY and QoQ driven by higher utilization and lower supplies/services. Energy is only about 10% of steelmaking cost and Nucor hedges 40-50% of annual natural gas needs.

Leon indicated volume growth will likely push closer to double digits, well above the 5% initial guide. Steel side will see pricing catch up while products group benefits from volume pickup.

Leon cited 85% sheet mill utilization with room to grow, with import levels at ~15% creating opportunity. Noted the Northeast and Midwest corridors provide unique geographic opportunities, especially with West Virginia ramping.

Leon broadly affirmed the framework but Steve cautioned it's mid-cycle guidance after all projects complete, not a specific 2027 target. West Virginia won't be at run-rate EBITDA in 2027.

Leon confirmed Seattle mill continues operating, with Kingman and Utah providing adequate Western U.S. coverage. Capital redirected to higher-return opportunities.

Steve acknowledged lowest quarterly return but emphasized annual commitment of 40%+ of earnings, noting 72% YTD payout and nearly 60% over last five years across three capital allocation pillars.

Steve confirmed Timna's directional math but declined to provide quantitative detail, deferring to mid-quarter guidance.

Leon noted West Virginia equipment largely delivered, minimizing tariff exposure. Al Behr described unique raw material positioning: river-located mills, largest scrap brokerage, global relationships.

Leon noted minimal export exposure at 5-6% of product, mostly high-value. Noah Hanners added CSI has wide flexibility to self-supply substrate from Nucor's own mills.

Leon strongly reaffirmed commitment to shareholder returns, noting 60%+ payout over 5 years. Steve clarified 135% was due to excess liquidity from prior year $7B cash balance.

CFO credited the Buenavista zinc-silver concentrator and higher IMMSA output for the improved byproduct volumes.

CFO said diesel pressure is felt mainly in Peru's truck fleet, while regulated gas prices in Peru and Mexico limit the impact; the net effect is manageable.

Silver guidance maintained at 24M oz for 2026 but potential upside from Buenavista zinc/silver pocket. At current prices, silver could surpass moly as top by-product.

CFO indicated post-COVID inflation has passed, with currency appreciation now the main cost driver. Operating costs expected relatively flat per pound.

Management firmly committed to organic growth, noting internal project economics exceed external acquisition opportunities.

CFO explained silver production is up 10% YoY at 23M oz. Buenavista zinc focus also produces associated silver. Not producing copper there this year.

Management confirmed new Mexican projects (Angangueo, Chalchihuites, Empalme smelter) are early-stage and not imminent additions to pipeline.

Management expressed view that US wisely excluded copper from tariffs due to domestic supply shortfall and consumer cost implications.

Management indicated they would redirect production to non-US markets to mitigate tariff impact, preferring to wait and see.

CFO acknowledged COMEX exposure and noted spread had narrowed to about 7% but did not quantify the percentage of contracts on COMEX.

Management reiterated the $650-700M target, acknowledged current spreads are considerably higher, and said it would address upside once the ramp is dialed in.

Theresa provided breakout: hot band 1.017M tons, cold rolled 151K tons, coated 1.53M tons. Four value-add lines at full capacity in markets benefiting from trade case wins. Capital allocation remains balanced: growth priority complemented by progressive dividend and share repurchase. Q1 buybacks paused somewhat due to working capital growth.

Mark clarified no interest in plate given Nucor's entry has the market well served, though Sinton addresses sub-plate needs. Focus remains downstream value-add and supply chain differentiation. Team has myriad opportunities under exploration now that Sinton and aluminum CapEx is behind them. Sees phenomenal opportunity in aluminum expansion.

Theresa broke down $1.4B: Sinton $475-525M, aluminum $650-700M, four value-add lines ~$200M (~$50M each). Lines operating at ~60% capability for the full year. Barry added four lines now operating full after trade case wins removed over 1M tons of dumped imports. Sinton quality issues resolved in Q4/early 2026, now capable of operating at market-driven levels like other facilities.

Mark declined to name aluminum customers citing NDAs and CAs. Noted accelerated market access as phenomenal. Additional CapEx from construction contract wind-down and difficulty securing electrical talent due to data center competition, requiring cost increases to maintain schedule.

Mark said automotive makers would have consumed more aluminum if supply existed. Does not believe customers are questioning aluminum. STLD entering the market provides optionality and greater supply chain redundancy that should mitigate these concerns going forward.

Theresa explained Sinton's spot pricing exposure allowed March price appreciation capture unlike lagging Butler/Columbus. Barry noted team maturation and higher utilization enabling quicker market capture. Automotive exposed steel being developed but not yet advertised.

Theresa confirmed comfort with capital structure and continued active buyback program. Growth investments now largely spent, so cash generation from new assets will fund shareholder returns.

Barry detailed extraordinary costs for reliability improvements and downstream commissioning. Mark emphasized step-function improvement and noted recent 90%+ operation with 10,000 ton days.

Noted a small public float limits purchases, the buys are opportunistic and do not impact FCX-level share repurchases.

Quirk clarified the 2028-2029 adjustments are minor normal forecasting updates unrelated to the material handling issue, with significant impacts concentrated in 2026-2027.

Quirk and Adkerson emphasized strong local community relationships and water partnerships with Arequipa as key to navigating political transitions. Adkerson highlighted their continuous operating record through various administrations.

Quirk noted Atlantic Copper circular project completing mid-year for electronics scrap processing. Some US scrap processing at existing facilities but not core business. Acknowledged thrifting and substitution at higher prices but emphasized copper's irreplaceable conductivity for data centers and electrification.

Quirk highlighted leach expansion, concentrate leaching facility, potential Miami smelter expansion, and US scrap processing opportunity. 45x requires legislative action.

Quirk cited stabilized labor turnover, contractor rationalization, better asset utilization, and automation. Goals exceed the 10% 45x benefit. Innovation initiative targeting meaningful cost reduction.

Named Texas as the most affected market and pointed to supportive July shipment trends, but did not put a dollar or ton figure on the Q2 hit.

Ward said regulatory approval came faster than expected. Real estate work (surveys, title insurance for 1031 exchange) is the long pole. Still expects Q1 2026 close. M&A pipeline remains attractive, expects ~$1B/year of transactions but never linear (could be $4B in a single year). Continues active engagement in significant conversations.

Ward confirmed buyback was opportunistic given attractive share price ($494 avg), not an M&A signal. Bought 911,000 shares ($450M). Still has ample buyback authorization remaining.

Ronnie said single-family assumed flat with any recovery back-half dependent on rates. Data centers heavily influence private mix but exact percentage not broken out. Energy/LNG projects emerging.

Tom said direct tariff impact is limited since VMC owns its rock. M&A typically slows in volatility but expects a temporary pause. Balance sheet well positioned.

Tom confirmed healthy M&A pipeline and active projects. On Mexico, no news on tribunal decision but feels good about the case and expects a decision sometime in 2025.