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Analyst
Tom Wadewitz
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters).
- Questions
- 63on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 6%4 of 63 questions
- Companies
- 11questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 7with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 63 of 63 questions from 11 companies
CHRWC.H. Robinson8 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
I'm surprised there isn't maybe more opportunity for you to see a participation that is stronger in spot
Show response
Management clarified it participated strongly in spot (transactional up YoY and sequentially) but emphasized winning contractual bids for long-term share.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Is that potentially if contract rates are up quite a bit. We're hearing kind of 10% to 15% contract increases for brokers and truckload. Is that potentially a driver of upside to your $6 number for...
Show response
CEO addressed Montgomery as a safety case, not immunity. Expects Supreme Court win based on Seventh Circuit and Southern District victories. Has playbook for either outcome. NAST president said bid season results strong and repricing process managed collaboratively with customers.
Calendar 2025 Q4
how should we think about the kind of net revenue growth in or adjusted gross profit growth in the first quarter and just to shape that a little better
Show response
CFO noted ocean rate normalization will continue into Q1 as part of path to $6 EPS. On 2027 margins, declined to give guidance but said 40% NAST mid-cycle target still on track. Beyond that, will make quality earnings growth decision on margin expansion vs reinvesting into market share.
Calendar 2025 Q3
just wanted to get a sense of maybe how you're doing that? Is that really price driven? Is it driven by more aggressive behavior in some bids
Show response
NAST president cited growth across targeted verticals (retail, energy, automotive, healthcare), drop trailer, cross-border, and SMB. Not one driver but combination of people, AI pricing, and better understanding of which freight to win. Growth across both enterprise and SMB.
Calendar 2025 Q2
how do you think about the operating margin, I guess, in that the kind of target of 40% or mid, I don't know, mid-cycle target
Show response
CFO said confident in 40% NAST mid-cycle target and won't cap there. NAST president said no limit on gross margin improvement as pricing and costing models continue advancing.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I think the sequential decline was a bit greater than we were anticipating. So just want to see if you could give a sense of does that keep moving down
Show response
Headcount decline partly from EST divestiture. Management said they are being smarter, not more aggressive. Robinson Managed Solutions (combining TMC and RMS with NAST) receiving strong customer response.
Calendar 2024 Q4
do you think that's kind of where we're settling out as things get back to normal historical
Show response
CFO confirmed their view on ocean rate normalization is unchanged from Investor Day, targeting second half 2023 rate levels.
how do you think about truckload volume growth in '25? Do you think that's something that you transition to in second half
Show response
Management declined to predict timing but expressed confidence in tools and talent to maximize impact of market inflection. Said response depends on type of swing.
NSCNorfolk Southern Railway8 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
is there a share shift in international? Or that's just like kind of completely like-for-like customer
Show response
Mark attributed international weakness primarily to demand factors including inventory depletion and tariff uncertainty rather than share shift. Domestic intermodal benefits from fuel cost advantages.
What do you think the competitive dynamic is like among rails in the East?
Show response
Mark acknowledged enhanced competition from new alliances following merger announcement but emphasized strong competitive position and product quality.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I wanted to ask you a bit about how you're thinking about volume. You gave us the expense guide. I just want to see if you could kind of point us to an area for volume and revenue
Show response
CEO declined specific volume/revenue guidance but noted approximately 1% revenue headwind from enhanced competition. Cost envelope can accommodate several points of growth with strong incrementals. CMO expects continued merchandise momentum offset by sluggish intermodal and weak coal pricing.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how much of the business do you think should be sticky to Norfolk? I recall back quite a long time ago, you had some corridor initiatives that I think are differentiated like the Crescent Corridor
Show response
CEO noted over half of J.B. Hunt business originates/terminates in the East and is retainable. Highlighted decades of hundreds of millions invested in premier and Crescent corridors plus unrivaled terminal footprint. CMO emphasized route structure and terminal proximity to consumers as structural advantages.
CSX has had this major construction project and debottlenecking with their Howard Street tunnel. And so that makes them a lot more efficient North, South along the East. Is that -- like is that a s...
Show response
CMO deflected with a quip about hoping it makes CSX more competitive with trucks rather than rail, effectively declining to assess the competitive impact.
Calendar 2025 Q1
have you seen any new contracts kind of recovery in chemicals or other areas that you might be more likely to have share
Show response
CMO confirmed merchandise share gains from multiple sources including alternative modes and competitors. On tariffs, both tailwinds and headwinds plausible with bigger risk from broader economic slowdown than tariffs specifically.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Are there specific examples where you say, okay, part of that chemicals is, hey, we got some new wins
Show response
CMO acknowledged prior service failures lost chemical customers and confirmed targeted wallet share recovery efforts plus new agility enabling spot market wins like in ag.
to be clear on the chemicals comment, though, you are -- you have visibility to some business coming back
Show response
CMO directly confirmed line of sight to specific wallet share recovery opportunities in chemicals.
CSXCSX Corporation7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
where do you think you're at on the range of pricing gains in '26?
Show response
Maryclare declined to quantify merchandise pricing gains, saying the team watches markets closely and prices to the value of service, and that fundamentals in several markets have shifted this year.
Calendar 2026 Q1
There's been a pretty substantial and rapid tightening in the spot market in truck
Show response
Maryclare confirmed discretionary pricing solid, noted only ~50% of book touchable per year creating lag, international intermodal less correlated to truck.
Calendar 2025 Q4
how do you think about pricing and price cost spread? I think, Steve, focus on price and productivity kind of two hallmarks of your approach
Show response
Steve confirmed price yield improvement in 2026 over 2025 and noted Mary Claire has implemented new pricing structures. Said it would take about a year to touch and stress-test every contract.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Is there any kind of reason for optimism near term, any signs of improvement
Show response
Kevin cited strong minerals/aggregates momentum, forest product recovery potential with economic improvement, chemical uncertainty from tariffs, metals team success with EFs and scrap. Noted the longest trucking down cycle anyone has seen and potential capacity tightening ahead.
Calendar 2025 Q2
do you think ease of doing business is the difference between those two
Show response
Joe declined to engage on merger-related questions, pivoting to general comments about opportunities to improve customer service across the rail ecosystem.
Calendar 2025 Q1
break down into maybe high level, but the kind of buckets of the operational challenges
Show response
Mike took full ownership, citing six compounding weather events plus two infrastructure closures. Outlined recovery actions: reducing cars online, adding locomotives, transferring crews, adjusting capital programs.
Calendar 2024 Q4
How do you think about full year margin performance
Show response
Sean acknowledged no margin improvement in H1 but said H2 margin growth is quite possible with stable environment and low-to-mid single-digit volume growth.
FDXFedEx7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
I wanted to get a sense of how much FEC margin improvement are you looking at?
Show response
Russ confirmed YoY margin improvement and laid out stranded-cost runoff: $250M already conveyed, $100M out in CY26, fully mitigated by exit of CY27.
Calendar 2026 Q1
I wanted to get your thoughts about the kind of potentially tighter airfreight market. I think the events in the
Show response
Carere noted at peak about 20% of air cargo capacity came out of the market, now leveled to about 10%. Demand surcharges are in place. Fuel index adjusted weekly to protect profitability. No material impact expected in Q4. Team executing well on capacity and pricing adjustments.
Calendar 2025 Q4
FedEx can, as they're developing momentum a couple of quarters into margin improvement, they you know, you do tend to run into this refilling of the incentive comp bucket
Show response
Subramaniam confirmed incentive comp headwind is a FY26 catch-up and will not persist into FY27. Expressed strong confidence in underlying transformation momentum across network, organizational, and digital initiatives.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I still feel like I don't really understand what it is. If I look at your international export revenue, I think, was up a little bit in 1Q
Show response
Carere clarified: Q1 $150M was mostly lost revenue from China-U.S. de minimis impact. Full $1B breakdown: ~$600M revenue loss continuing quarterly, $100M from global de minimis change (Aug), $300M direct trade expenses.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Do you feel like you're kind of ahead of the game on how that's going
Show response
Subramaniam provided concrete metrics: 100 stations closed, 290 integrated, targeting roughly 30% surface facility reduction. Dietrich confirmed on track for $2B Network 2.0 and OneFedEx savings target.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I'm wondering if you like have a sense of where that's coming from. Is that a function of the sure post changes at UPS
Show response
Carere attributed growth to Ground Economy's competitive transit, picture proof of delivery, and weekend coverage. Every Ground Economy dollar brings $4 in total domestic revenue. Subramaniam said comprehensive CEO search for FedEx Freight is underway.
Calendar 2024 Q4
would you anticipate that you get somewhat more volume focused with LTL in the future?
Show response
Brie confirmed Freight will play more offense with new sales hires, technology to fill capacity, and targeting the 3PL market, while running comfortably at 100-105% utilization.
ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line7 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
there are maybe a couple pretty good-sized carriers that have hit some embargoes in the Midwest and capacity constraints
Show response
Confirmed competitor capacity strain and said some of that freight moved over temporarily, while Old Dominion has no equipment, driver or real estate constraint.
So you think that is maybe boosting July Or was that happening earlier in the quarter?
Show response
Said the shift has been happening since earlier in the year and tied it to Old Dominion's standing excess service center, trailer and driver capacity.
Calendar 2026 Q1
we have seen some improvement from other players in the market, like I mean, TFI is talking a lot about service improvement, favorable trend in their volumes
Show response
Adam strongly asserted service gap is as wide or wider than ever, noted winning more bids, and expressed confidence that no specific carrier initiative is having material impact on ODFL.
Calendar 2025 Q4
What what do you hear from customers? Do you hear that much kind of good news and enthusiasm about, you know, improvement in active activity
Show response
Adam confirmed customer conversations slightly more positive but not to the degree of the ISM move. Volumes still down YoY. Flywheel effect of business model needs time to restart. History shows ODFL outperforms in early recovery but it won't turn around overnight from one data point.
Calendar 2025 Q3
kind of tell us where you think you're at on terminal capacity. I think you're kind of normalized. You like to have 20% to 25%
Show response
Excess capacity above 35% vs 20-25% target. No service centers opened in 2025. Several completed facilities in ready reserve. Lower CapEx expected for both real estate and fleet in 2026.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I wanted to see if you could offer a little more perspective just on pricing and kind of how you think about revenue per hundredweight ex fuel in 3Q
Show response
Q3 yield ex-fuel expected 4-4.5%, consistent sequential increase. Industry pricing discipline holding. Competitors having pickup capacity issues creates ODFL opportunity when demand inflects.
Calendar 2025 Q1
how you think about the importance of retail customers to LTL overall
Show response
Marty dismissed Amazon LTL threat as mainly for their own suppliers. Retail is 25-30% of business. Won Mastio quality award 15 straight years. Near-shoring creates further LTL opportunity.
UNPUnion Pacific Corporation7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
can you give us any kind of framing of, let's say, 3 to 2, 2 to 1 customers
Show response
Vena and Hamann quantified the affected group: 2-to-1 is 3 or 4 customers and 3-to-2 is low 30s, out of thousands.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Is that also important for you to deliver volume growth as you continue to build your case
Show response
Jim emphasized both volume and revenue growth goals alongside disciplined pricing for service value. Jennifer noted truck pricing remains more expensive than rail, supporting continued growth positioning.
Calendar 2025 Q4
how do you approach volume
Show response
Jim emphasized aggressive volume growth in 2026 regardless of merger status, citing successful competition against CPKC in Mexico as a model. He expects Kenny to grow the business and Kenny to price properly, stating the merger doesn't change standalone execution.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I wanted to see if you could offer some more thoughts on just how you see the merger application, the process of building support from shippers
Show response
Jim laid out the full strategic foundation for the merger: service near 100%, debt reduced to 2.6x, industry-leading safety. Kenny confirmed 400+ customer support letters and 1,200+ stakeholders. Jim targeted filing by end of November or early December.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Can you offer any thoughts on kind of what the flavor of that feedback is? Are shippers greatly concerned
Show response
Jim declined to share shipper feedback on the NS discussions, drawing an analogy to home-buying negotiations and privacy.
Calendar 2025 Q1
is there like a revenue growth or a volume growth to assumption that you say, hey, we kinda need to be in this range in order to achieve that
Show response
Jim declined to give specific revenue or volume thresholds, citing extreme near-term uncertainty, but noted carloads are strong across most categories so far in April.
Calendar 2024 Q4
How do you think about the truck, your assumptions on truckload market
Show response
Kenny pointed to DAC and FTR data suggesting improvement but declined to forecast timing or extent, while Jennifer noted international intermodal mix as a key RPU driver.
Show 5 more companies
UPSUnited Parcel Service6 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
if you could offer some thoughts on cost per piece trend in second half in 2027
Show response
Dykes quantified the second-half RPP step-down and confirmed 50 to 100 bps of product mix benefit on top of base pricing.
Calendar 2026 Q1
How do you think about that like the key pieces of that ramp and just visibility to that
Show response
Brian detailed the $350M transitional costs declining into Q2 as MD11 leases wind down, ground saver transition completes, and weather/casualty normalizes. Fuel surcharges cover costs but too early to predict Middle East impact.
Calendar 2025 Q4
do we think about it as kind of low single digits revenue growth? Would that be kind of what you would aim for? And what kind of pace of margin improvement can you consider?
Show response
Brian outlined go-forward algorithm: mid-single-digit volume growth, couple percent base rate, cost per piece below RPP driving structural margin improvement. On Groundsaver, full $400-500M recovery expected over time but Carol noted full benefit not until 2027 due to migration and driver right-sizing timeline.
Calendar 2025 Q3
can you give us a bit more perspective on how SMB played out versus what seemed to be a lot of concern in 2Q?
Show response
Carol detailed SMB decline less than feared, UPS gained share in volume and value. Global de minimis elimination caused tenfold surge in daily customs entries (13K to 112K). AI-powered brokerage now clears 90% without manual intervention. Direct financial impact $60M in Q3, estimated $75-100M in Q4, mostly from trade lane mix shift.
Calendar 2025 Q1
how much of the $3.5 billion full year cost kind of comes through, and like, how does it build through the year
Show response
Brian explained variable and semi-variable costs follow Amazon volume timing, fixed costs and Efficiency Reimagined ~60% back-half weighted. Carol added Amazon decline is higher in H2.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how can we build confidence that, against a pretty meaningful drop in revenue from the Amazon change that you're able to
Show response
Carol explained the 18-month glide-down timeline was chosen to avoid stranding costs, and Nando confirmed 5 facilities already closed in January with 140 active projects.
JBHTJ.B. Hunt5 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
where are you at on loads per dray truck and container utilization? Can that go up further
Show response
Darren said productivity is strong but not the main margin lever ahead; volume growth spreading fixed cost and excess containers are the bigger drivers.
Calendar 2026 Q1
How do you think about the way we should interpret that for the go-forward intermodal volume growth relative to 3% for the full quarter
Show response
Darren declined forward guidance but noted single-week volume record in March. Said drayage capacity has not been a bottleneck historically to the extent highway has; intermodal drayage offers attractive career path helping recruitment. Strong pipeline and value proposition give confidence in continued growth.
Calendar 2025 Q3
do you think that those DOT efforts are really causing a lot of concern in the mindset
Show response
Shelley said customers want to help but manage costs based on what they see in bids. Described fighting for 1-2% pricing as unprecedented difficulty. Nick Hobbs said the 200K non-domiciled CDL figure is fairly legit but other factors like cabotage enforcement will also impact. Spencer added customers won't change until they experience capacity constraints at dock level.
Calendar 2025 Q2
should we think about this $100 million program in 2026 as being a net impact to EBIT
Show response
Brad Delco noted Q2 operating expenses were flat YoY ex-insurance despite volume growth. John Kulow confirmed internal target exceeds $100M but they wanted high conviction before sharing publicly.
Calendar 2024 Q4
do you think against that tougher comp, we should be considering flattish Intermodal volume
Show response
Darren Field cited the 9M-11M addressable highway loads for intermodal conversion. Eastern network growth continues despite depressed truck rates; opportunities also in Mexico and intact international moves.
DALDelta Air Lines4 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
Do you assume that you get to revenue growth, low single-digit revenue growth, some kind of revenue growth in the main cabin? Or should we think about this where you really get there with the good ...
Show response
Glen confirmed main cabin improvement is part of the base assumption for 2026, not treated as upside. Combined with continued premium and card growth. Formal 2026 guidance not yet given.
do you think that what you've seen in the sales trend that's been favorable is that consumers flying more? Do you think it's just Delta Air Lines' share in kind of industry capacity rationalization
Show response
Glen pointed to low-end carrier rationalization (including bankruptcy) forcing higher fares across the industry. Carriers catering to lower-income customers have poor financial performance, need higher fares to survive, which benefits Delta's main cabin pricing power.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Europeans traveling to the U.S. fall off meaningfully. So I guess that would affect your partner or the European airlines
Show response
Glen noted European point of sale is only ~20% of international revenue. No crack seen yet in rest-of-world to US traffic. US point of sale bias provides structural protection.
what you've seen perhaps in Canada, U.S., and if you've seen something Mexico, U.S., that how have those markets played out
Show response
Glen confirmed significant Canada booking decline and mixed Mexico performance with VFR under more pressure than business. Likely reducing capacity in both.
UALUnited Airlines Holdings3 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q2
How do we think about that going forward? And then I think there was one particular expense item that seemed a bit lower than kind of normal. The distribution expense was down quite a bit year-over...
Show response
Mike confirmed 2.2% CASM-ex will persist through remainder of year. Distribution costs declining as more customers use direct channel.
Are we back to January levels on demand or we're kind of on the way back there? Or how do we kind of reset to say, okay, in July, with Newark recovery and a little bit of stabilization, kind of jus...
Show response
Andrew highlighted broad-based 6-point inflection with stronger business rebound, combined with less capacity and favorable Q4 setup.
Calendar 2025 Q1
do you think, you know, progress tends to be slower if you're in a recession or things are a lot weaker
Show response
Scott committed to industry-leading contracts regardless of macro environment, indicating flight attendant deal is near the goal line.
LUVSouthwest Airlines1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q2
Is that something that you say, okay, this is kind of not what we're optimizing on at the moment
Show response
Bob confirmed load factor gap is squarely in focus for H2. Intentional connections up 40% year-over-year starting August to drive off-peak fill. Andrew added August load factor is only down 0.5pts YoY. Seats per trip up 7% post-pandemic but customers per trip only up 1%, initiatives like connectivity, basic economy, and distribution fill that gap.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| CHRW C.H. Robinson | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Railway | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions |
| CSX CSX Corporation | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions |
| FDX FedEx | 7 | 14%1 of 7 questions |
| ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line | 7 | 14%1 of 7 questions |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions |
| UPS United Parcel Service | 6 | 17%1 of 6 questions |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| DAL Delta Air Lines | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings | 3 | 0%none of 3 questions |
- CHRWC.H. Robinson · 8 questions13%1 of 8 questions
- NSCNorfolk Southern Railway · 8 questions0%none of 8 questions
- CSXCSX Corporation · 7 questions0%none of 7 questions
- FDXFedEx · 7 questions14%1 of 7 questions
- ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line · 7 questions14%1 of 7 questions
- UNPUnion Pacific Corporation · 7 questions0%none of 7 questions
- UPSUnited Parcel Service · 6 questions17%1 of 6 questions
- JBHTJ.B. Hunt · 5 questions0%none of 5 questions
- DALDelta Air Lines · 4 questions0%none of 4 questions
- UALUnited Airlines Holdings · 3 questions0%none of 3 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 9 | 11%1 of 9 questions | 7 |
| 2025 Q1 | 10 | 0%none of 10 questions | 9 |
| 2025 Q2 | 9 | 0%none of 9 questions | 8 |
| 2025 Q3 | 11 | 9%1 of 11 questions | 9 |
| 2025 Q4 | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions | 7 |
| 2026 Q1 | 9 | 11%1 of 9 questions | 8 |
| 2026 Q2 | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions | 7 |
- 2024 Q49 questions · challenge rate 11% (1 of 9 questions) · 7 companies
- 2025 Q110 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 10 questions) · 9 companies
- 2025 Q29 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 9 questions) · 8 companies
- 2025 Q311 questions · challenge rate 9% (1 of 11 questions) · 9 companies
- 2025 Q47 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 7 companies
- 2026 Q19 questions · challenge rate 11% (1 of 9 questions) · 8 companies
- 2026 Q28 questions · challenge rate 13% (1 of 8 questions) · 7 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Competitive Dynamics27
- Demand19
- Margin14
- Cost Pressure13
- Pricing12
- Revenue Growth8
- M&A7
- Macroeconomic4
- Supply Chain4
- Guidance Reliability4
Show all 16 topics
- Trade Tariffs4
- Labor Market3
- Regulation Policy2
- Geographic Expansion2
- Innovation & R&D1
- Capex Investment1