October 15, 2026
Earnings guidance cuts in Q3 2026: who lowered their outlook
Earnings guidance cuts on Q3 2026 calls: which companies lowered their own full-year outlook, by how much, and what management said about why.
Earnings guidance is a company's own forecast for upcoming results, such as earnings per share or free cash flow. Headlines often grade a cut against what analysts expected. This post uses a cleaner test: did the company lower the guide it set itself on its prior call, in its own unit? So far in calendar Q3 2026, among about 91 companies scored on the Earnings Pulse, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines are two clear cuts. The big banks told a different story: none of the guided banks cut. Bank earnings Q3 2026 scorecard.
What counts as an earnings guidance cut
Each company is measured only against its own most recent full-year guide, in the unit the company uses. We never convert dollars into growth rates or the reverse. Narrowing a range counts as a cut only if the midpoint falls.
- Raised: the company moved its own range or point estimate up.
- Held: the company reiterated it, in words like "still expect," "reaffirming," or "continue to."
- Cut: the company moved it down.
- Updated: the company changed how it states the guide, so the new line cannot be read as up or down on its own.
- Withdrawn: the company stopped giving it.
- None given: the company does not issue this guide. That is a policy, not a miss.
The baseline is the guide from the prior call, usually the second quarter.
Q3 2026 guidance cuts at a glance
| Company | Call day | Metric | Prior guide | New guide | Mark | Company page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo | Oct 8 | Core constant-currency EPS growth | Low end of +4% to +6% | +1% to +2% | Cut | PEP (Pro) |
| PepsiCo | Oct 8 | Core EPS growth | Low end of +5% to +7% | +2.5% to +3.5% | Cut | PEP (Pro) |
| PepsiCo | Oct 8 | Organic revenue | +2% to +4% | Approximately +3% | Held | PEP (Pro) |
| PepsiCo | Oct 8 | Net revenue | +4% to +6% | Approximately +6% | Raised | PEP (Pro) |
| Delta Air Lines | Oct 9 | Full-year adjusted EPS | $6.50 to $7.50 | $5.10 to $5.60 | Cut | DAL (Pro) |
| Delta Air Lines | Oct 9 | Full-year free cash flow | $3 to $4 billion | Approximately $2.5 billion | Cut | DAL (Pro) |
So far: two companies with clear earnings cuts, and a split at PepsiCo where revenue held or rose while earnings growth fell. The newest quarter on each company page is part of Tellvest Pro. Earlier quarters are free.
Beat, then cut: PepsiCo
PepsiCo reported third-quarter results on October 8, 2026, with organic revenue up 3.1% and core constant-currency EPS up 1.5%. On the same day it updated fiscal 2026 guidance. Core constant-currency EPS growth moved from the low end of +4% to +6% to +1% to +2%. Core EPS growth moved from the low end of +5% to +7% to +2.5% to +3.5%. Both are Cuts.
The revenue side did not fall with earnings. Organic revenue moved from +2% to +4% to approximately +3%. The midpoint stayed at 3%, so that is Held. Net revenue moved from +4% to +6% to approximately +6%, which is Raised.
Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta said: "Additional structural cost reduction actions are being identified and will be implemented in the coming months to help fund investments that aim to accelerate organic revenue growth and mitigate the impacts of rising input cost inflation." The company's guidance table is the source for every prior and new line above.
See the Q3 score on the PepsiCo company page (Pro)
Cut, but calm: Delta Air Lines
Delta reported September-quarter results on October 9, 2026, and cut two full-year lines. Adjusted EPS moved from $6.50 to $7.50, the guide Delta affirmed in July, to $5.10 to $5.60. Free cash flow moved from $3 to $4 billion to approximately $2.5 billion. Both are Cuts.
The tone on demand stayed upbeat. CEO Ed Bastian said: "Demand remains strong, supported by consumers' growing preference for experiences and travel, with air travel continuing to be one of the best values in the consumer economy." On the full-year picture: "For the full year, we expect to generate a pre-tax profit of roughly $4.5 billion, absorbing a $6 billion increase in fuel costs." CFO Erik Snell said the airline was "absorbing more than $500 million of higher fuel costs compared to our guidance in early July."
See the Q3 score on the Delta company page (Pro)
The banks as foil
None of the guided big banks cut their own net interest income guide in October. Citi raised, Wells Fargo and Bank of America held, and JPMorgan changed how it states the number. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley give no formal guide. The full scorecard is here: Bank earnings Q3 2026: which big banks raised, held or cut their guide?. This post does not rebuild that table.
Guidance cut vs profit warning: what's the difference
A guidance cut, as used here, is a company lowering the forecast it set on its prior earnings call or release, usually on the next call. An interim alert that results will miss the prior forecast is typically issued between reports. The two are related, but this scorecard only marks changes made against the company's own prior guide, in its own unit, on or with the call.
What management said about why
PepsiCo pointed to margins and costs: rising input costs, mix, and sustained advertising and marketing investment, while keeping the sales outlook intact. Delta pointed to fuel: a multi-billion-dollar fuel bill against a demand picture management still called strong. In both cases the number and the words pull in different directions. Read both.
FAQ
What is earnings guidance? A company's own forecast for upcoming results, such as revenue, earnings per share or margins, usually given on the earnings call or in the release for the next quarter or full year.
What does a guidance cut mean? The company lowered its own forecast below what it said on its prior call. It is measured against the company's own earlier guide, not against analyst estimates.
Is a guidance cut the same as an interim miss alert? Usually no. A cut on the call updates the company's own prior guide. An interim alert typically lands between reports. This post only scores call or release changes vs the prior guide.
Is withdrawing guidance the same as cutting it? No. Withdrawn means the company stopped giving the guide. Cut means it still gives one, at a lower number.
Which companies cut guidance on Q3 2026 earnings calls? So far, among about 91 companies scored for calendar Q3 on the Earnings Pulse, this table marks PepsiCo (core EPS growth lines) and Delta (adjusted EPS and free cash flow). The list will grow as more calls land.
How to follow earnings guidance yourself
- Use the table above to see who cut, held or raised the guide they set themselves.
- Open each company's page for management's own words and prior quarters for free. The newest quarter is part of Pro.
- Use the Economic Sentiment Index or the Earnings Pulse to see what companies are saying across sectors.
- For the bank foil, read the bank earnings Q3 2026 scorecard.
Descriptive analysis, not investment advice. Quotes are short excerpts from company releases and public earnings materials.
See the Economic Sentiment Index
Related: Blog, Bank earnings Q3 2026 scorecard, How to read a company earnings call score, How to follow earnings without reading every transcript.