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Analyst

Dennis Geiger

UBS · covers Consumer Cyclical

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q3 (8 quarters).

Questions
45on tracked calls
Challenge rate
0%none of 45 questions
Companies
6questioned at least once
Reporting periods
8with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 45 of 45 questions from 6 companies

DRIDarden Restaurants11 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 11 challenging
DRI company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

On value perceptions at Olive Garden — any change in the scores there? Has the smaller plates menu helped?

Show response

Rick said value scores remain strong and lighter-portions guests return more frequently, building frequency.

Calendar 2026 Q1

any latest expectation you have based on anything you have observed so far to date

MacroeconomicDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Rick confirmed tax refunds higher per recipient. Some impact from checks dropping in February (small amounts). Most refunds expected in March/April. All contemplated in guidance.

Any update to share there and where the guest and the employee feedback is

Innovation & R&DDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Rick noted Olive Garden making good push in Q3 with tests to speed up first course. 50,000 servers need convincing. Short-term: better throughput on high-volume days. Long-term: guests choosing OG for occasions they previously avoided.

Calendar 2025 Q4

just any updates on the implementation of that or how you're thinking about the plan

Show response

Rick noted mixed progress with some brands faster than others. All making improvement. Changing habits takes time. No complaints about being too fast, only too slow.

an obvious benefit over time if this goes well presumably is your table turns move notably

Innovation & R&DDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Rick confirmed peak-time table turn improvement would increase traffic. Long term, guests will come for occasions they previously avoided due to time constraints.

Calendar 2025 Q3

anything to note -- else to note on sort of behaviors

Show response

Raj noted lower alcohol preference across most brands. LongHorn lunch growing faster than dinner. Fine dining seeing more weekday weakness from business travel drop-off.

Calendar 2025 Q2

just how you're thinking about the Olive Garden momentum continuing through '26

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Rick noted Q4 momentum contemplated in guide. If Uber overdelivers, may reduce SSS impact through affordability investments in test. Focus on 5-year plan.

Is that largely delivery driven? Is there anything with any other initiatives

Revenue GrowthPricingTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Rick explained long-term comp increase driven by higher expected inflation (thus slightly more pricing), with Uber growth helping offset other investments.

Calendar 2025 Q1

the customer value scores for the brand if you've seen any kind of notable uptake

Show response

Rick noted gradual value score improvement driven by better operations and unlimited first course, not a step change from Manicotti pricing.

have you kind of observed anything or have any additional thoughts maybe on what incrementality may look like

Product LaunchRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Rick confirmed 40-50% incrementality, contemplated in guidance.

Calendar 2024 Q4

relative to the full-year guide and Uber Direct, if there is anything embedded there?

Product LaunchRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Rick confirmed rollout accelerated due to flawless technology and strong operator buy-in; no incremental sales from Uber Direct in guidance.

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill8 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
CMG company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

if you could provide a little bit more color on the guide for the positive low single in 2026 on the comps

Guidance ReliabilityDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Adam detailed Q3 comps around plus 1% assuming the roughly 200bps cyclospora headwind persists, noting Q3 is the toughest lap of the year.

Calendar 2025 Q4

I believe you mentioned only embedding a modest impact from the initiatives this year. So I'm just curious if you could sort of unpack

Guidance ReliabilityRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Adam clarified Q1 guide of -1% to -2% excludes further initiative impact (Chicken Al Pastor upside). Full-year guide includes modest initiative impact but conservative given consumer environment. Scott noted key opportunities are more multiyear than 2026-specific.

Calendar 2025 Q3

Beyond the pricing piece, I'm not sure if I missed it, but any other aspects that you could share now and maybe what that might look like?

Show response

Adam highlighted portioning investment generating positive social media and transactions. Marketing spend staying ~3% but with strategic incremental opportunities at 4+ ROAS threshold.

Any other learnings maybe from the '25 LTO launches to help you think about those launches next year in the current environment to maximize impact

Product LaunchRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Scott confirmed LTO buyers show higher lifetime value. Dips (Adobo Ranch, Red Chimichurri) were a positive surprise. 2026 will blend new and proven innovations with 3-4 protein LTOs plus sauces, dips and sides.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Just any additional thoughts on the time line there? How important is sort of the macro normalizing

Revenue GrowthMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Scott cited easing compares, improving consumer sentiment, fall LTO, new side/dip, college rewards program, and produce slicer benefits. Confident in near-term return to mid-single-digit.

If you could sort of speak at all to trends through the quarter. I know you talked about that improving momentum

Revenue GrowthDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Adam walked through monthly trends: April +8% 2-year from Honey Chicken, May dipped couple hundred bps with consumer sentiment, June recovered to 8% 2-year with positive comps. July bouncing 7-8%.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Anything on lunch versus dinner to call out? Is it easier for your customer to cut back on lunch in this environment

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Adam confirmed dinner holding up better than lunch. Scott described the operations-marketing-digital flywheel and cited produce slicer completion as key throughput unlock.

Calendar 2024 Q4

Do you guys generally look at the business a little bit longer term as sort of mid-single digit from a same-store sales algorithm perspective

Revenue GrowthGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Scott confirmed mid-single-digit comp as the long-term algorithm. Acknowledged rough start to 2025 but expressed confidence in the plan and durable earnings power.

DPZDomino's8 questions · 8 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
DPZ company page →

Calendar 2026 Q3

how you think about the key sales drivers for the U.S. business from here

Product LaunchDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Jordan cited moving loyalty members up frequency bands and using The Domino to push pizza into new occasions.

Calendar 2026 Q2

I'm curious if there's any way to put that into context relative to prior quarters

DemandSubscriber GrowthPricingTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Reddy pointed to loyalty and aggregator acquisition as drivers and said the Q3 mix impact is much more modest, without quantifying new customers per quarter.

Calendar 2026 Q1

do you feel over the near term that you've got to do even more on the discounting front or more generous offers

PricingCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Russell positioned Domino's as the driver of competitive intensity, not a responder. Renowned value is core pillar plus profit power to sustain it. Competitors following Domino's lead may retain customers short-term but face long-term profit erosion that leads to closures. Domino's can continue this indefinitely.

Calendar 2025 Q4

Is is the bulk of of what drives the US comp from from initiatives that are already in play versus some of that new stuff that may come out this year

Guidance ReliabilityRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Sandeep noted comp will be higher H1 than H2. Acknowledged January weather disruption included in estimates. Key baseline: stuffed crust, DoorDash, Best Deal Ever all compound. Carryout at $4.4B is bigger than two national competitors' total business. Loyalty up 20% since relaunch. Won't reveal all new initiatives for competitive reasons.

Calendar 2025 Q3

Could you just kind of break down maybe anything on what you're seeing at a high level thus far, sort of unpacking that macro dynamic and the impact on the business

Guidance ReliabilityMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Sandeep acknowledged sequential slowing in restaurant industry to start Q4 but reiterated 3% comp. Expects continued share gains vs QSR pizza. Best Deal Ever and DoorDash provide back-half support. Russell added that macro pressure drives share gains and long-term competitive advantage.

Calendar 2025 Q2

anything more kind of on additional thoughts on the initiatives you've got, how they should hopefully help you to accelerate trends into the back half

Revenue GrowthGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Russell highlighted Best Deal Ever currently running plus DoorDash volume expected in H2. Sandeep emphasized carryout strength from loyalty program with frequency compounding. Won't reveal specifics to protect competitive surprise.

Calendar 2025 Q1

just anything else on some of the other initiatives as we think about loyalty, maybe another new item coming, promotions, marketing calendar

Revenue GrowthGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Russell declined specifics for competitive reasons but emphasized Hungry for MORE strategy generates differentiated value initiatives. Sandeep highlighted loyalty as a multiyear driver with 2.5M new members.

Calendar 2024 Q4

I wanted to ask a bit more on the 2025 guidance for the US same-store sales

Guidance ReliabilityRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Sandeep explained aggregator expansion timing drives H2 weighting; Russell added initiatives come from Hungry for More strategy without revealing specifics.

MCDMcDonald's Corporation7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
MCD company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

how quickly the issues that you flag across the execution, the ops and the marketing can be addressed

Revenue GrowthDemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

CEO said operations should improve fastest (within control), marketing changes limited in Q3 with adjustments in Q4, and value fixes need franchisee alignment. CFO noted July U.S. comps slightly negative but expects IOM/IDL to accelerate in Q3.

Calendar 2026 Q1

can you talk a bit more about how you're thinking about the U.S. sales trajectory over the balance of '26

Revenue GrowthMacroeconomicDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CEO expressed confidence in U.S. marketing calendar, value program, beverages as tailwind, but acknowledged macro environment is not improving and may be getting worse.

Calendar 2025 Q4

how you're thinking about the U.S. sales trajectory in 2026, given some of those sales drivers you identified

DemandGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Chris framed 2026 execution around McValue plus marketing and menu news; Ian cited US Q4 positive guest count growth and strongest comp guest count gap in recent history.

Calendar 2025 Q3

how you're thinking about the U.S. sales trajectory looking out over the coming quarters

DemandGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Ian cited lapping the food safety event, MONOPOLY, and EVM rehit for Q4 US acceleration; international segments may decelerate on tough comps but accelerate on 2-year stack.

Calendar 2025 Q2

how you think about the U.S. sales trajectory and underlying momentum over the coming quarters

DemandProduct LaunchTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Ian said back half should be stronger than front half, with Q4 aided by lapping the E. coli incident and Q3 lapping the $5 Meal Deal launch.

Calendar 2025 Q1

encouraging response to the Minecraft marketing campaign and to your value platforms into the second quarter

DemandProduct LaunchTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Chris framed Q1 as always the toughest quarter with Minecraft sold out in 10 to 14 days vs a four week plan.

Calendar 2024 Q4

talk a little bit more about the early customer response to McValue

Show response

Management gave specific framing on take rates in line with expectations and positive value-perception gains.

YUMYum! Brands7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
YUM company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

just wanted to get a sense for anything more on the latest trends as you think about the recovery trajectory

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Roy quantified the recovery precisely, giving the -2% quarter-to-date figure, the July 18th peak impact and the halfway-back last-four-days data point.

Calendar 2026 Q1

could you touch a little bit more on how the brand generates these strong results even in this particularly difficult consumer environment?

DemandCompetitive DynamicsProduct LaunchTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Turner detailed structural advantages (Mexican category growth, value model), strategy execution toward $3M AUVs by 2030, and Live Mas Cafe already delivering returns system-wide.

Calendar 2025 Q4

Wondering if you could talk a little bit more about some of the comments around accelerating the long-term growth. If there's anything to elaborate on sort of opportunities to accelerate an already...

Revenue GrowthCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

CEO outlined growth drivers: KFC record gross openings with strong paybacks, Taco Bell 5% international SSS, KFC two-year acceleration from Q3 to Q4. Scott Mezvinsky applying Taco Bell magic formula to KFC. Highlighted beverages, tenders, sauces, and loyalty expansion.

Calendar 2025 Q3

any early look into how you're thinking about how that momentum rolls into next year, given, I think, Chris, some of the comments you made about what sounds like more weeks of crispy chicken

Revenue GrowthDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

CEO outlined Taco Bell's three-pillar advantage: craveability, fastest drive-thru in QSR, and unmatched value. Growth across all income bands and more younger consumers entering. On track for $3M AUV plan by 2030.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Any commentary on maybe the low-income consumer in particular or any other notable consumer cohort pressure to call out

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

CEO confirmed Taco Bell not experiencing low-income consumer pullback seen by competitors, with consistent growth across all income bands and clear trade-in from fast casual.

Calendar 2025 Q1

any additional commentary on sort of the confidence in the development outlook even if the macro would have a downturn, your confidence there to kind of continue to hit numbers

Geographic ExpansionMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

CFO cited gross openings in Q1 higher than 2023, KFC second-highest Q1 ever, 53 countries vs 43 last year. Strong franchisee confidence despite macro complexities.

Calendar 2024 Q4

touch to some extent on the health of international franchisees, perhaps how that impacts your growth trajectory expected through '25

Geographic ExpansionDemandTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Management provided detailed three-part breakdown of KFC international markets: high-impact Middle East (down 12% FY, up 11% Q4), no-impact markets (9% FY system sales growth), and middle markets recovering.

CAVACAVA Group, Inc.4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
CAVA company page →

Calendar 2026 Q3

Wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the implied 2H outlook.

Guidance ReliabilityRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Geiger pressed on the 2H bridge; Tolivar quantified the low end as slightly negative SRS and the high end as mid-single digits.

Calendar 2026 Q1

as it relates to menu innovation going forward, you have the tent-pole moments and then some other innovation

Product LaunchInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Direct: tent-pole moments bracketed by seasonal launches; salmon before end of Q1, shrimp tested, plus a broad pipeline across proteins, sides and beverages.

Calendar 2025 Q4

those stores open 18 months, they're flipping to positive. I assume not as strong as what you've seen in prior classes

DemandGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Confirmed the 2024 cohort is flipping positive after 18 months and expects the 2025 cohort to follow the same path in 2026; exposing GMs to high-volume markets to retain guests.

Calendar 2025 Q3

Any additional commentary on kind of what year 2 could look like, how the algorithm could change?

Capex InvestmentGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

CFO said recent cohorts are pulling forward strong returns (2023 class at ~50% cash-on-cash in year two, 2024 class above 40%) but declined to revise the underlying year-one AUV and returns model.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
DRI Darden Restaurants110%none of 11 questions
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill80%none of 8 questions
DPZ Domino's80%none of 8 questions
MCD McDonald's Corporation70%none of 7 questions
YUM Yum! Brands70%none of 7 questions
CAVA CAVA Group, Inc.40%none of 4 questions
  • DRI
    Darden Restaurants · 11 questions
    0%none of 11 questions
  • CMG
    Chipotle Mexican Grill · 8 questions
    0%none of 8 questions
  • DPZ
    Domino's · 8 questions
    0%none of 8 questions
  • MCD
    McDonald's Corporation · 7 questions
    0%none of 7 questions
  • YUM
    Yum! Brands · 7 questions
    0%none of 7 questions
  • CAVA
    CAVA Group, Inc. · 4 questions
    0%none of 4 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q450%none of 5 questions5
2025 Q160%none of 6 questions5
2025 Q270%none of 7 questions5
2025 Q370%none of 7 questions6
2025 Q470%none of 7 questions6
2026 Q160%none of 6 questions5
2026 Q250%none of 5 questions5
2026 Q320%none of 2 questions2
  1. 2024 Q45 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 5 companies
  2. 2025 Q16 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 5 companies
  3. 2025 Q27 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 5 companies
  4. 2025 Q37 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 6 companies
  5. 2025 Q47 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 6 companies
  6. 2026 Q16 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 5 companies
  7. 2026 Q25 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 5 companies
  8. 2026 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 2 companies

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Demand26
  • Revenue Growth20
  • Guidance Reliability12
  • Product Launch8
  • Macroeconomic7
  • Pricing6
  • Innovation & R&D4
  • Competitive Dynamics3
  • Geographic Expansion3
  • Subscriber Growth1
Show all 12 topics
  • Margin1
  • Capex Investment1