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Analyst

Matt Smith

Stifel · covers Consumer Defensive

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters).

Questions
37on tracked calls
Challenge rate
3%1 of 37 questions
Companies
8questioned at least once
Reporting periods
7with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 37 of 37 questions from 8 companies

MOAltria14 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 14 challenging
MO company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

You raised the low end of the guidance range. But even with that, the low end is below the first half delivery.

ChallengingGuidance ReliabilityCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Mancuso confirmed timing played out differently than planned and that on! PLUS launches require investment, but gave no second-half phasing detail.

can you talk about your initial observations in terms of the product's market share trajectory

Product LaunchCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Answered the sourcing question qualitatively as a Marlboro-family retention tool but gave no share figures for Cowboy Cut.

Calendar 2026 Q1

how do you balance the earnings growth potential against leaning more heavily into reinvestment this year

Capital AllocationCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Gifford said the company is not under-investing and will invest appropriately, flagging consumer strength as the wild card.

can you provide some more color on the other factors in smokable seems like double the duty drawback grew in size?

MarginCost PressureTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Sal attributed smokeable OCI strength to pricing and stronger cigarette volume, with per-pack costs benefiting from higher volume and export business.

Calendar 2025 Q4

Can you provide any color on the scope of the program? We calculate today that the percent of packs with the FET benefits around 3%

Capital AllocationGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Billy confirmed investments are both volume and cost related. Sets up Richmond manufacturing for international production. Reluctant to share specific scope for competitive reasons.

The $300 million to $375 million investment level is that we think this is a one-time increase in CapEx

Show response

Sal confirmed CapEx elevation is primarily for import-export capabilities. Investments precede volume. Also investing in smoke-free manufacturing for on! PLUS and pipeline products.

Calendar 2025 Q3

the fourth quarter implies a deceleration in the earnings growth. You called out lapping the share repurchase and the MSA legal fee expiration

Guidance ReliabilityMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Sal confirmed share repurchase and MSA legal fund lapping are the key Q4 headwinds. Feels good about smokeable performance and Marlboro's premium segment strength.

when we think about the moderation that we saw sequentially, can you talk about the drivers that you think are leading to that

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Billy attributed moderation to consumer adjustment to stable conditions and stepped-up e-vapor enforcement putting some consumers back in play for combustible/smokeless categories.

Calendar 2025 Q2

can you talk about your expectations in the second half of the year? And how you're thinking about what could be an even more uncertain consumer

Guidance ReliabilityMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Sal noted they are happy with first half results. Acknowledged dynamic market with some green shoots in gas prices and consumer confidence but macro remains unsettled.

that product is still -- or has finalized product development. Can you give an update on the path from here

Product LaunchRegulation PolicyTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Billy confirmed fourth patent product workaround is at product lock stage. Could not give exact date but noted excitement about bringing product back. Also building pipeline with consumer-preferred disposable traits.

Calendar 2025 Q1

what you're seeing from the consumer that gives you the confidence in continuing to seek pretty robust pricing in the cigarette category

PricingCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Management emphasized flexibility through data analytics and RGM tools to manage pricing at the store level, balancing profitability with consumer support.

Can you talk about the current state of the consumer? And are you seeing that inflationary pressure on the consumer play a role

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Billy confirmed cumulative inflation is driving both down-trading and cross-category movement to illicit e-vapor, with price becoming a more prominent factor.

Calendar 2024 Q4

Can you talk about the trends you're seeing in those adult consumers? Is there incremental pressure

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Management acknowledged cumulative inflation is the key pressure, visible in credit card late payments and debt. Cross-category movement to illicit e-vapor is also a factor.

the guidance for the year, the 2% to 5% EPS growth, can you talk about the phasing of earnings growth

Guidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Billy declined quarterly guidance but noted no major one-time distortions from 2024 that would affect 2025 comparisons, unlike the NJOY ramp-up that distorted 2024 vs 2023.

PMPhilip Morris International10 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 10 challenging
PM company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

I wanted to dig in a little bit further on the Japan dynamics during the quarter

DemandRegulation PolicyTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Babeau gave a detailed answer: category slowing but still growing, SENTIA cushioning TEREA, worst pass-on already absorbed, and a more favorable 2027-2029 excise landscape ahead.

Calendar 2026 Q1

the incrementality you're seeing from that offering versus trade down and the profitability today for IQOS by bonds

Product LaunchMarginCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CEO confirmed bonds is attracting entrenched cigarette smokers who had not previously switched to heat-not-burn. Profitability floor set at combustible level as a minimum, with upside potential.

was the inventory dynamic in the first quarter entirely driven by consumer pantry

InventoryDemandPricingTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CEO acknowledged a similar pantry-loading effect is possible before October but declined to comment further. Noted it depends on competitor pricing actions.

Calendar 2025 Q4

can you expand on the reacceleration in smoke-free volume growth compared to the 2026 growth guidance?

Subscriber GrowthGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Olczak attributed 2027+ reacceleration to Japan excise symmetry between HNB and cigarettes starting 2027, US ZYN portfolio filling with Ultra pending FDA authorization, and normalizing combustible comparisons in India/Mexico.

Calendar 2025 Q3

You think about the $100,000,000 of investment that took place in the quarter, is that a sustained level of investment or I should say a normalized level of investment that you face a tough compari...

Capex InvestmentCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Emmanuel clearly distinguished the $100M as non-recurring relaunch costs, while noting promotional activity will normalize at higher levels than the supply-constrained H1 (20% vs single-digit prior year).

you talked about the single digit operating profit growth on an underlying basis in the fourth quarter. Can you you provide a little bit more detail behind the drivers behind that?

Revenue GrowthGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Emmanuel attributed Q4 moderation to inventory timing (HTU ~2B unit reversal, ZYN 20-30M can adjustment), lower combustible pricing phasing, continued investment spending, and a significantly higher Q4 tax rate to land at ~22% for the year.

Calendar 2025 Q2

In the markets where you are taking pricing, how is that impacting volume and new user acquisition

PricingSubscriber GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Emmanuel confirmed pricing strategy prioritizes volume growth, taking price increases only where they don't meaningfully impact volume trajectory for IQOS and ZYN.

Is it fair to say the second half is more or less in line with your previous expectations?

Guidance ReliabilityRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Emmanuel emphasized smoke-free acceleration in Q2, with H2 moderation driven by combustible declines, IQOS shipment timing reversal, device comparison lapping, and restocking completion.

Calendar 2025 Q1

can you talk about some of the underlying benefits to IMS growth re-accelerating across the rest of 2025?

Subscriber GrowthGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Emmanuel attributed Q1 IMS of 9.4% to EU flavor ban annualization drag, expected to diminish in H2, supporting the 10-12% full-year adjusted IMS growth target.

Can you talk about the factors in the second half that we should take into consideration

Revenue GrowthGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Emmanuel attributed H2 moderation to normal phasing of SG&A, comparison effects, and shipment timing. Combustible volume expected to turn negative in H2 after positive Q1, but overall strong momentum expected.

GISGeneral Mills4 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
GIS company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

can you clarify if that includes any tariff refunds and your expectation for timing around that?

Trade TariffsCost PressureTranscript · FY2026 Q4 →
Show response

Bruce said steel/aluminum tariffs remain, refunds realized so far are immaterial, and no material FY27 contribution is expected.

Calendar 2025 Q4

there's obviously 10% that's still lagging your expectation. You talked about Totino's a bit, but is there a common thread

PricingCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Dana said no common thread in underperforming pricing, limited to Totino's (bag-to-box conversion muddying data) and a few Old El Paso kits SKUs. CEO reinforced 90-plus percent hit rate as exceptional for this scale.

what channels are you currently seeing take share from traditional channels?

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Dana confirmed the unmeasured channel shift in Pet is primarily to e-commerce, where pet purchases over-index.

Calendar 2025 Q3

I believe you called out the international timing benefit was about 3 points of that segment's net sales

MarginCost PressureTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CFO attributed Q1 upside to lighter inflation (~2% vs 3% annual rate) and $20M international timing benefit, both expected to reverse in Q2.

MNSTMonster Beverage3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
MNST company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

I'm curious as to the opportunity you see with multipacks, especially the larger sized ones

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Hilton noted the progression from 4-packs to 6, 8, 12, and now 24-packs in club. Multipack adoption drives higher consumption rates per household as the category becomes mainstream.

Calendar 2025 Q4

you expanded gross margin across regions, but also called out pressure from tariffs and inflation

MarginTrade TariffsCost PressureTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

CEO expects Q1 aluminum impact slightly higher than Q4, Q2 higher still, then lapping begins. G&A included $12.9M performance comp true-up, $5.1M AFF facility, $6.6M digital transformation, adjusting for these, G&A as % of sales declined.

Calendar 2025 Q3

In the U.S., what level of pricing do you expect from the increases in promo reductions?

PricingRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

CGO Gehring explained RGM approach balancing rate, trade spend, package mix and channel mix. Declined to state precise net price realization number given complexity, said more detail planned for December Investor Day.

SJMJ.M. Smucker Company (The)3 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
SJM company page →

Calendar 2025 Q4

the performance by brand in the measured channel data that we see has varied. Specifically for the Dunkin' brand, elasticities have been softer

Competitive DynamicsPricingTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Mark acknowledges Dunkin' competitive pricing pressure but notes improvement in Q2. Making surgical pricing investments and supporting with seasonal innovation. Long-term confidence intact.

Can you talk about some of the underpinnings to that acceleration, whether there's also unique comparisons there

Revenue GrowthProduct LaunchTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Tucker expects low double-digit Uncrustables growth in H2 supported by marketing, protein innovation, distribution, and away-from-home momentum (20% of sales).

Calendar 2024 Q4

can you talk about the drivers of growth in the second half and beyond? Are you seeing stronger distribution opportunities, or is this more velocity-driven

Revenue GrowthProduct LaunchTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Mark enthusiastic: third plant operational, shifting to demand generation. Raspberry exceeding expectations. $900M this year, $1B+ in FY2026. Innovation pipeline strong.

CAGConagra Brands1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
CAG company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

Would you expect CapEx investment in the supply chain to kind of ratchet down in future years

Capex InvestmentSupply ChainTranscript · FY2026 Q4 →
Show response

Neisius set long-term CapEx at 4% to 5% of net sales, with roughly $100 million of the year-over-year step-up tied to in-sourcing projects like fried chicken.

Show 2 more companies
HSYHershey Company (The)1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
HSY company page →

Calendar 2025 Q4

is there anything you need to call out on the operating costs? And with operating costs growing in line with sales, is this a level of investment that you as you exit 2026 allows some future levera...

MarginCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Steve guided marketing costs pretty even across quarters with some R&D building in back half. 2027 margin recovery continues alongside investment. Driving supply chain efficiencies and demand fulfillment efficiency to fund demand creation investments.

MKCMcCormick & Company1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
MKC company page →

Calendar 2025 Q1

You called out traffic weak -- or weaker traffic trend, but volumes were actually up. Can you talk about the drivers of growth that more than offset that traffic weakness

DemandInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Brendan cited Asia Pacific QSR store growth and accelerating traffic, plus Americas innovation wins and new customer acquisition. Noted Asia Pacific QSR strength for multiple quarters. Americas gains from share wins are more durable than LTO-driven.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
MO Altria147%1 of 14 questions
PM Philip Morris International100%none of 10 questions
GIS General Mills40%none of 4 questions
MNST Monster Beverage30%none of 3 questions
SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The)30%none of 3 questions
CAG Conagra Brands1—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
HSY Hershey Company (The)1—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
MKC McCormick & Company1—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
  • MO
    Altria · 14 questions
    7%1 of 14 questions
  • PM
    Philip Morris International · 10 questions
    0%none of 10 questions
  • GIS
    General Mills · 4 questions
    0%none of 4 questions
  • MNST
    Monster Beverage · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • SJM
    J.M. Smucker Company (The) · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • CAG
    Conagra Brands · 1 question
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • HSY
    Hershey Company (The) · 1 question
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • MKC
    McCormick & Company · 1 question
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q430%none of 3 questions2
2025 Q150%none of 5 questions3
2025 Q240%none of 4 questions2
2025 Q360%none of 6 questions4
2025 Q490%none of 9 questions6
2026 Q150%none of 5 questions3
2026 Q2520%1 of 5 questions4
  1. 2024 Q43 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 3 questions) · 2 companies
  2. 2025 Q15 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 3 companies
  3. 2025 Q24 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 2 companies
  4. 2025 Q36 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 4 companies
  5. 2025 Q49 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 9 questions) · 6 companies
  6. 2026 Q15 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 3 companies
  7. 2026 Q25 questions · challenge rate 20% (1 of 5 questions) · 4 companies

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Competitive Dynamics8
  • Demand8
  • Guidance Reliability7
  • Capex Investment6
  • Pricing6
  • Revenue Growth6
  • Margin6
  • Product Launch5
  • Cost Pressure4
  • Macroeconomic4
Show all 18 topics
  • Geographic Expansion3
  • Subscriber Growth3
  • Trade Tariffs2
  • Regulation Policy2
  • Capital Allocation2
  • Supply Chain1
  • Inventory1
  • Innovation & R&D1