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Analyst
Paul Cheng
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2025 Q4 (5 quarters).
- Questions
- 68on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 18%12 of 68 questions
- Companies
- 12questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 5with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 68 of 68 questions from 12 companies
VLOValero Energy10 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
which of your refinery is currently under that contract
Show response
Lane declined to disclose specific sites but noted Valero is directionally less unionized than many competitors, providing a structural advantage in labor negotiations.
Do you think that now on a maximum full cycle basis, that you would be able to do better than that
Show response
Lane confirmed record mechanical availability supports higher utilization but declined to quantify. Gary added that Q4's high industry utilization was partly weather-driven and not sustainable at December levels.
Calendar 2025 Q3
part of the issue related to the margin capture is on the octane. Octane value comparing to the second quarter, I think, has come down
Show response
Gary explained octane values weakened as naphtha strengthened (less Russian naphtha, Venezuelan diluent demand, Asian petchem pull), reducing the blending incentive.
do you guys think that we are seeing all this new technology now available to you is more the evolution or that is going to transform
Show response
Greg cited ongoing deployment in equipment inspection, tank cleaning robotics, and drone inspections. Lane added control room consolidation and predictive maintenance as areas of improvement.
Calendar 2025 Q2
is that still economic for us that to export RD from DGD
Show response
Eric noted foreign feedstock and domestic prices haven't separated yet, but expects adjustment as policies are finalized, with low CI feedstocks remaining in demand.
how you think it's going to impact on the global distillate yield as more of the medium sour is available
Show response
Greg confirmed OPEC medium sour grades yield more distillate but couldn't quantify the magnitude, while Lane noted incremental diesel may end up in lower-value marine markets.
Calendar 2025 Q1
What's your production expectation in the second quarter based on the current margin for Sandd
Show response
Eric explained SAF isn't at max mode because HBO economics exceed SAF in Europe, and a second unit FID requires demand exceeding current capacity plus policy certainty.
when the when was the last major turnaround that you did? At Remington
Show response
Greg confirmed the FCC unit turnaround was recent but Homer declined to comment on future turnaround schedules that would inform a closure timeline.
Calendar 2024 Q4
when you report the first quarter result in your result, should we just assume that you would take out the $1 per gallon for the PTC in your margin and not includin
Show response
Lane confirmed Q1 results will exclude PTC benefit unless policy is clarified, with no provisional estimate. Eric declined to quantify Q4 inventory optimization.
do you see a lot of opportunity of reducing your energy cost further
Show response
Greg noted low natural gas prices make energy efficiency investments hard to justify in North America, though Pembroke has seen some improvements given higher UK costs.
MPCMarathon Petroleum8 questions · 5 reporting periods · 3 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
On a going forward basis, is that the the tie off good reasonable baseline we should assume going forward
Show response
CEO attributed 2025 overshoot to El Paso project start plus inflation; refining spend declining through 2028. Mike confirmed USW negotiations progressing with rolling 24-hour extensions and open dialogue.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how big is that impact, whether it is in the dollar per barrel or percent of capture rate?
Show response
CFO quantified total inventory effects (butane build, VGO ahead of FCC turnarounds) at 3-5% of capture. Rick noted a Mid-Con pipeline would be bullish for MPC given 800K bpd capacity.
Calendar 2025 Q2
With the two pending California refinery closure for your system, how do you think that is going to impact you?
Show response
Rick highlighted access to advantaged California crudes, Pacific Northwest optionality for CARB gasoline, and El Paso refinery covering the Arizona market as closures shrink CA supply.
Is that considered the cycle high? And over the next several years, what would be a more normal level or average for the cycle
Show response
CFO acknowledged COVID-era backlog driving elevated turnaround spend and suggested this may be the peak, with numbers expected to decline, but declined to give 2027 guidance.
Calendar 2025 Q1
what is the root cause of the outages in the first quarter? And more importantly than what are the initiatives that you are doing
Show response
CFO declined to detail root causes but confirmed both plants running as expected quarter-to-date after Dickinson planned downtime; focused on feedstock optimization and PTU leverage.
how your strategy may be different than your peers? And there's also in the commodity business, there's always some fear
Show response
CEO highlighted existing customer commitments, Permian processing capacity reaching 1.4 Bcf, elimination of third-party frac dependency, and strong Asian C3 demand outlook.
Calendar 2024 Q4
as for the cycle, what's considered as a normal turnaround cost for you guys? Is $1.4 billion the new normal or this is considered somewhat of a high year
Show response
CFO declined to provide a normalized turnaround cost figure, citing post-COVID schedule shifts and capacity changes as complicating factors.
is there any one-off item in California for this quarter, we should be aware, or is there any other factor
Show response
Rick highlighted the refinery-to-retail integrated value chain in California as a structural advantage, with minimal West Coast exports in Q4.
PSXPhillips 667 questions · 4 reporting periods · 2 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
Do you believe you could be a good consolidator in the refining industry? And do you have the desire to do it
Show response
Mark confirmed currently maxed out heavy crude, acknowledges clean product yield impact offset by economics. Described refining M&A opportunities as rare unicorns but would look at Mid Continent or Gulf Coast additions. Results reflect four years of building momentum.
Calendar 2025 Q2
if the margin is lower, that means that you're going to reduce further from the second quarter level
Show response
Brian confirmed Q3 likely at even lower rates than Q2. Mark noted losses are unacceptable and unsustainable; engaging at federal and state levels.
in California, your marketing business. In the long haul, how you see them fitting into your portfolio?
Show response
Mark/Brian explained California gasoline import plan post-L.A. closure. Imports up 70K bpd already. Humber is leading UK/European refinery, strengthened by peer rationalization.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Should Phillips 66 visit or what is the cash balance that you really want to keep on the book
Show response
Kevin defended balanced approach: 50% payout modest, $1.5B cash adequate with liquidity facilities. Debt supported by stable $4B Midstream + $2B M&S EBITDA. Refining effectively debt-free.
why I mean even though it's a great asset, why that is important for them to be part of the portfolio and what are synergy or that the integration benefit
Show response
Mark described deep physical integration at Sweeny: three crackers, storage at Clemens Dome, Freeport access. If fully independent, more frictional losses in operations and less financial integration.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how we prioritize between the two? That should the debt reduction take a more priority until that you are at a lower level?
Show response
Kevin clarified $3B debt reduction target (not $5B), noted asset sale proceeds plus operating cash flow provide flexibility to accomplish both.
Do you think you will start recording some of the benefit related to PTC or that you're not going to report any PTC credits until you are 100% certain
Show response
Kevin acknowledged high uncertainty; two options, not record anything until clarity, or go with available notices. Working through it during Q1.
APAAPA Corporation6 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
Do you have any rough idea then how that look like in 2027 to 2030
Show response
Rodgers said OBBB legislation intends full IDC and bonus depreciation benefits which should keep US taxes near zero. Still awaiting some interpretation guidelines beyond 2026. Tax team working through details.
what's the game plan that how should we look at over the next 2 or 3 years
Show response
Christmann said currently doing technical work reprocessing and stitching together seismic surveys. No winter drilling this year. Likely building ice roads late next year for next winter's drilling. Will update on appraisal and exploration next steps once technical work is complete.
Calendar 2025 Q2
where you think that is the biggest source of that upside
Show response
Rodgers highlighted 7 overhead simplification projects covering 1/3 of total overhead with potential AI applications. Riney provided extensive detail: Midland competitive with best, Delaware still at industry average with improvement room, LOE upside from water disposal, compression centralization, and field technology.
if we set aside, say, the capital constraint, just looking at organizational capability, where is the constraint
Show response
Christmann said organizational capacity is not a constraint. Riney revealed 800 MMcf/d plant processing capacity vs. ~500 current production, field gathering is the near-term bottleneck. Third-party facility access conversations underway.
Calendar 2025 Q1
at what oil price that you would say the [indiscernible] is here or we are in the red mine and so you would take a more drastic cut
Show response
Christmann said very low $50s WTI would trigger more drastic cuts. At $50 WTI they can still fund capex, exploration, decom, and dividend with reasonable marketing assumptions. That breakeven number is 'going lower every day.'
should we assume that you have oil price line further from here that you will be making -- you're going to shift more of the rig the gas
Show response
Christmann confirmed gas rigs increase as Brent softens, with optionality constrained by infrastructure and inventory. Alpine High economics evaluated on Waha pricing independent of pipeline trading. Riney added most gas is rich gas with significant condensate.
DVNDevon Energy6 questions · 4 reporting periods · 3 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
The fourth quarter Delaware result is really very impressive. I mean you have lesser number of TEU and then production is actually higher than expected
Show response
John attributed Q4 strength to both well timing (3 programs outperformed) and base optimization (5K bpd full-year beat, nearly 2% of base).
Calendar 2025 Q2
can we look at Bakken? Maybe that the data is wrong, but it does look like the well productivity is maybe come down a bit
Show response
John explained shift from higher-quality east-side legacy to west-side Grayson wells looks like productivity decline but results meet expectations.
Calendar 2025 Q1
how that the adoption now you are doing is different than what you've been doing? And also, that how you are different from the rest of your peers
Show response
Trey Lowe described real-time physics models across wells, AI agents, and 15-30% productivity boosts from platform rollout.
not like the Delaware Basin, comparing to the number of wells that you bought on, the production is a little bit light for us
Show response
John explained lower working interest plus later-quarter well timing; well productivity meeting/exceeding expectations.
Calendar 2024 Q4
when you did dissolve the JV with BP, you're saying that you're going to save the cost by about $2 million per well. And from a design standpoint
Show response
Clay explained BPX controlled D&C while Devon managed facilities; Devon's own rig showed immediate improvement.
seems like productivity on a per gross well basis is down. What I want to caution you is there's a little bit of a difference in working interest
Show response
Clay clarified lower working interest (80% to 73%) explains apparent per-well decline, not a productivity issue.
FANGDiamondback Energy6 questions · 5 reporting periods · 3 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
$65 WTI last year is really not that low. So still a bit surprising you have reserve write-down and also impairment charge
Show response
Kaes explained it's purely fair-value accounting: booked at $80 oil, averaged $64 for a year. Not indicative of a bad deal, all investors agree it was the right transaction.
where is the biggest opportunity to drive that down further? Is it coming from further improvement in drilling or completion
Show response
Danny identified drilling consistency (sub-6 day wells vs 8.5-9 day average) and completion supply chain optimization as key levers. Deeper zones have more room for material cost reductions.
Calendar 2025 Q3
what percentage of the well that you are in the 3 miles or longer? And if we're looking at over the next several years
Show response
Al said 20-25% of 2025 wells are 3-mile+, with 6% at 17,500-20,000 feet. Kaes noted they're studying U-turn and J-hook designs to push DSUs from 10K to 20K feet.
Calendar 2025 Q2
how the longer term, your business model need to be evolved over the next say, call it, 5 to 10 years
Show response
Kaes emphasized patience and organic resource exploration within the Permian, with M&A only when opportunities present at obviously accretive valuations.
Calendar 2025 Q1
does that mean that you have to go outside the Permian or that the entire business model perhaps that needs to be changed
Show response
Travis firmly stated Diamondback will stay focused on the Permian, citing unmatched inventory quality and depth, with organic growth likely needed in 5-10 years.
Calendar 2024 Q4
can you tell us that with the drawdown in stock, how much you estimate is the saving in CapEx
Show response
Kaes estimated ~$200M savings from DUC drawdown at ~$2.2-2.4M per well drilling cost, with plans to offset in 2026.
Show 6 more companies
COPConocoPhillips5 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
Shell Oil is getting mature. And as that happened, how over the next five years your capital allocation is going to shift
Show response
Ryan Lance pushed back on shale maturity thesis for COP specifically, over 2 decades of inventory. Industry may plateau but COP won't. Major project CapEx rolls off through decade-end. Multiple growth options in Alaska, Canada, EG, Libya. Constructive long-term demand view.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how should we look at it? Would you think that you still have such a huge portfolio that you really don't need to increase your exploration effort
Show response
Ryan Lance described redirecting exploration budget to Alaska to support Willow infrastructure, spudding well in Otway Basin Australia, appraising Norway discoveries.
Calendar 2025 Q2
can I just sneak in and just clarify or that confirm Willow, the CapEx is still at $7 billion. And in terms of Eagle Ford
Show response
Nick Olds highlighted record drilling efficiency with 13% improvement in feet per day, wells performing at or above type curve, and 15 years of tier 1 Eagle Ford inventory.
Calendar 2025 Q1
do you think that Conoco need to start more maybe aggressively diversify away from the Lower 48 into your other area of operation
Show response
Ryan Lance stressed cost of supply focus regardless of geography, noted high bar for inorganic additions given differentiated existing portfolio depth and duration.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what's the running room in those assets? Terms of the tier one inventory backlog, if there's anything that you can share
Show response
Nick Olds confirmed unchanged inventory quality with 2,000 locations at ~$40 cost of supply, split roughly half Eagle Ford and remainder Bakken/Delaware.
CVXChevron Corporation5 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
how you see the opportunity set in two of the OPEC countries Libya, and Iraq, where a lot of your competitors seems to be believe that the opportunity sets have margin improved
Show response
Wirth confirmed MOU signed in Libya. Historically avoided Middle East due to uncompetitive service contracts. Fiscal terms now improving. On LNG, prefers US offtake without capital deployment given credit position. Not opposed to adding but must deliver competitive returns.
Calendar 2025 Q3
have you changed the way that how you manage your base? And so has that become a repeatable?
Show response
Wirth explained structural factors: facility-limited assets (TCO, Gorgon, Wheatstone) plateau at low capital, unconventionals managed for plateau. Plus technology/information systems driving efficiency.
Calendar 2025 Q2
how important going forward the exploration fit into your overall portfolio?
Show response
Wirth candidly admitted dissatisfaction with exploration results. Nelson outlined expanded program with frontier wells in Suriname, Namibia, Egypt and increased portfolio by over 20%.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Can you give us some idea that maybe update us on -- in terms of the time line, what's the next step, the size of the project
Show response
Wirth outlined Aphrodite: 800 mmcf/d production, gas to Egypt, in pre-FEED. Commercial work and competitive returns needed before FID. Praised Noble Energy legacy position.
Calendar 2024 Q4
the question has always been talking about longer term, say, by the turn of the decade
Show response
Wirth outlined post-2026 growth catalysts: chemicals projects, Eastern Med expansions, Argentina, West Africa discoveries. Comprehensive long-term pipeline view.
OXYOccidental Petroleum5 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
LCV we're not going to spend any money at all? And also that, I think for Richard, can you talk about the $400 million
Show response
Mathew confirmed ~$100M LCV CapEx in 2026. Jackson explained $400M maintains flat activity year-over-year, with ~$100M for EOR/unconventional EOR. Plans mapped to below $50 WTI scenarios. Dillon noted GoA exploration deferrals into future years.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Is the activity level, right now is being constrained by your capital? Or that is there any other thing is constraining the activity level
Show response
Hollub emphasized debt reduction priority over growth. Dillon added Block 53 drilling costs down 50% per foot over 3 years, workover rig costs down 50%, with options for partnerships to fund acceleration without Oxy capital.
Calendar 2025 Q1
what's the potential that we could expect for those 2 years? And how big of the opportunity set that we may be talking
Show response
Hollub provided 10-year portfolio transformation: 83% US production vs 50% in 2015, $14B total resources vs $8B, 60% shale vs 16%. Detailed $6B+ conventional upside across Gulf of America, Algeria (largest 3D seismic), and Oman.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what percent of your 2025 program in the Permian is on the secondary branches versus the 2024
Show response
Jackson noted secondary benches up to 30% from 25%, flowing into existing facilities enabling 2-3x returns versus greenfield development.
you expect the Permian oil cut is going to be higher in 2024 2025. And if that is correct, what would drive up the oil cut
Show response
Jackson explained oil cut tracks unconventional growth, Crown Rock Midland Basin mix, and secondary bench development in Delaware.
CTRACoterra4 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q2
Is there a target in terms of percent of your gas volume, you would like to be in that type of contracts
Show response
Blake Sirgo explained no fixed target for power contracts; the approach is dynamic balancing of diversity, price enhancement, and future volume commitment flexibility as confidence in assets grows.
is that means that Anadarko could be an area of interest for M&A?
Show response
Tom Jorden deflected M&A speculation while emphasizing strong Anadarko position with great netbacks, inventory, and portfolio value. Standard no-comment on specific acquisition areas.
Calendar 2024 Q4
can you give us some idea that on by quarter, how's the well coming on stream and also the CapEx is going to try and look like?
Show response
Blake Sirgo declined quarterly guidance but noted Marcellus rigs starting in April will create some lumpiness, while Permian three steady frac crews even out activity. Referenced slide 36 for visual activity cadence.
what should we assume is the maximum? How much? Or that the production that you could expect?
Show response
Tom Jorden deflected the production-maximizing framing, emphasizing returns-based management. Suggested slow and steady single-digit growth possible but even maintenance at 2 BCF would be fine with right pricing.
EOGEOG Resources4 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q2
How you transform your business? And how much is the potential upside in your free cash flow can generate from those initiatives
Show response
Ezra pointed to track record: peer-leading dividend CAGR, pristine balance sheet, strong excess cash return, all outputs of daily operational improvement. Specific advances include motors, super zipper, extended laterals, and generative AI.
at a $65 to $70 WTI price, do you think we are running out of inventories?
Show response
Ezra noted rig count falling hard at $65-70 signals limited industry growth incentive. But have-vs-have-not divergence means companies with scale and technology can profitably grow well below $65. Never discount technology and employee capability.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Do you still see a lot of opportunity from an acquisition target standpoint out there
Show response
Ezra said Q1 demonstrated both approaches: $800M buyback plus $275M Eagle Ford bolt-on. Evaluates all opportunities through returns lens versus existing portfolio. Not limited to M&A, exploration offers same value proposition.
how should we look at that business in, say, five years’ time? What is the size of the business you can grow to?
Show response
Ezra noted Trinidad investment has been consistent, with margin expansion from reservoir quality and platform drilling. Declined to quantify five-year scale. 30-year Columbus Basin knowledge continues to unlock opportunities.
XOMExxonMobil2 questions · 2 reporting periods · 1 of 2 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
what is your base underlying decline for your upstream portfolio
Show response
Woods said very early in bringing technology power to bear on depletion rates. Plans past 2030 continue to grow production offsetting depletion. Using supercomputer and algorithms to improve recovery at very low cost with string not yet fully pulled. Global operations organization formed beginning of this year bringing together all operating organizations. Even with earlier centralized support saw material improvements in maintenance cost reliability and safety. New operations organization will enhance and supercharge benefits. Across whole portfolio just getting warmed up on centralized organizations with supply chain procurement and business solutions all showing huge upside.
Calendar 2025 Q3
should we assume that at this moment, you are pretty running up against your organizational capability limit
Show response
Woods said recent reductions were next step in continuum of transformation work. Over $14 billion structural cost reduction since 2019 averaging about $2.5 billion per year with similar expected this year and going forward. Current capacity limited by opportunity set and high criteria insisting on advantaged projects versus low end of cost of supply curve. Have not hit that limit and does not see one. Technology and project organizations have untapped opportunity to get even better. Pointed to 10 projects with gross capital on order of $50 billion as probably unmatched in industry history for successful delivery in this timeframe. Mikells added $14.3 billion structural cost savings is bar none across industry with more opportunity.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| VLO Valero Energy | 10 | 0%none of 10 questions |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum | 8 | 38%3 of 8 questions |
| PSX Phillips 66 | 7 | 29%2 of 7 questions |
| APA APA Corporation | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions |
| DVN Devon Energy | 6 | 50%3 of 6 questions |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | 6 | 50%3 of 6 questions |
| COP ConocoPhillips | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| CVX Chevron Corporation | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| CTRA Coterra | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions |
- VLOValero Energy · 10 questions0%none of 10 questions
- MPCMarathon Petroleum · 8 questions38%3 of 8 questions
- PSXPhillips 66 · 7 questions29%2 of 7 questions
- APAAPA Corporation · 6 questions0%none of 6 questions
- DVNDevon Energy · 6 questions50%3 of 6 questions
- FANGDiamondback Energy · 6 questions50%3 of 6 questions
- COPConocoPhillips · 5 questions0%none of 5 questions
- CVXChevron Corporation · 5 questions0%none of 5 questions
- OXYOccidental Petroleum · 5 questions0%none of 5 questions
- CTRACoterra · 4 questions0%none of 4 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 15 | 13%2 of 15 questions | 9 |
| 2025 Q1 | 16 | 19%3 of 16 questions | 10 |
| 2025 Q2 | 17 | 18%3 of 17 questions | 11 |
| 2025 Q3 | 10 | 20%2 of 10 questions | 8 |
| 2025 Q4 | 10 | 20%2 of 10 questions | 8 |
- 2024 Q415 questions · challenge rate 13% (2 of 15 questions) · 9 companies
- 2025 Q116 questions · challenge rate 19% (3 of 16 questions) · 10 companies
- 2025 Q217 questions · challenge rate 18% (3 of 17 questions) · 11 companies
- 2025 Q310 questions · challenge rate 20% (2 of 10 questions) · 8 companies
- 2025 Q410 questions · challenge rate 20% (2 of 10 questions) · 8 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Competitive Dynamics21
- Capex Investment17
- Cost Pressure14
- Geographic Expansion11
- Innovation & R&D11
- Margin10
- M&A9
- Capital Allocation8
- Revenue Growth7
- Regulation Policy5
Show all 18 topics
- Macroeconomic4
- Pricing3
- Demand3
- Labor Market1
- Inventory1
- Supply Chain1
- Product Launch1
- Guidance Reliability1