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Sentiment · FY2027 Q1
Beer depletions turned positive in Q4 with sequential improvement, though enterprise net sales still declined approximately 11% including wine divestiture impacts as the fiscal year closed with FY2027 guidance of -1% to +1% beer net sales. CEO Bill Newlands transitioned to Nicholas Fink while beer margins were guided down to 37-38% on Veracruz brewery startup costs and aggressive marketing investment was planned for FY2027. The $4 billion buyback program continued executing with $900 million+ returned in FY2026, and the wine category faced deepening headwinds including a Canada import ban.
Demand | Competitive Dynamics | Margin | Guidance Reliability | Macroeconomic | Cost Pressure | Capex Investment | Capital Allocation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 2025Q3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| 2025Q4 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2026Q1 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2026Q2 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026Q3 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026Q4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | '26Q1 | '26Q2 | '26Q3 | '26Q4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | 4 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Competitive Dynamics | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Margin | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Guidance Reliability | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Macroeconomic | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cost Pressure | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Capex Investment | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Capital Allocation | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Analyst | Firm | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Herzog | Goldman Sachs | 8 (25%) |
| Filippo Falorni | Citigroup | 8 (0%) |
| Dara Mohsenian | Morgan Stanley |
| Quarter | Revenue | Rev YoY | EPS | EPS YoY | Gross margin | Op margin | Net margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 Q2 | $2.92B | +2.9% | $-6.59 | -276.2% | 51.3% | 37.3% | -41.1% | $854M |
| FY2025 Q3 | $2.46B | -0.3% | $3.39 | +22.8% | 51.0% | 31.8% | 25.0% | $457M |
| FY2025 Q4 | $2.16B | +1.2% | $-2.09 |
| Lauren Lieberman | Barclays | 6 (50%) |
| Rob Ottenstein | Evercore ISI | 6 (17%) |
| Kaumil Gajrawala | Jefferies | 5 (60%) |
| Rob Moskow | TD Cowen | 5 (0%) |
| Chris Carey | Wells Fargo | 5 (20%) |
| Nik Modi | RBC Capital Markets | 5 (80%) |
| Nadine Sarwat | Bernstein | 5 (40%) |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | 1 | 8 (38%) |
| Citigroup | 1 | 8 (0%) |
| Goldman Sachs | 1 | 8 (25%) |
| Bank of America | 2 | 6 (17%) |
| Barclays | 1 | 6 (50%) |
| Evercore ISI | 1 | 6 (17%) |
| JPMorgan | 2 | 6 (0%) |
| Jefferies | 1 | 5 (60%) |
| -197.7% |
| 51.1% |
| 40.5% |
| -17.3% |
| $312M |
| FY2026 Q1 | $2.51B | -5.5% | $2.90 | -39.6% | 50.8% | 31.7% | 20.5% | $444M |
| FY2026 Q2 | $2.48B | -15.0% | $2.65 | +140.2% | 52.8% | 35.2% | 18.8% | $635M |
| FY2026 Q3 | $2.22B | -9.8% | $2.88 | -15.0% | 53.2% | 31.1% | 22.6% | $371M |
| FY2026 Q4 | $1.92B | -11.3% | $1.16 | +155.5% | 49.6% | 26.0% | 10.5% | $344M |
| FY2027 Q1 | $2.43B | -3.3% | $3.79 | +30.7% | 54.3% | 34.7% | 26.9% | $485M |
| Year | Revenue | Rev YoY | EPS | EPS YoY | Gross margin | Op margin | Net margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | $9.45B | +7.2% | $-0.42 | +31.3% | 51.7% | 32.5% | -0.8% | $1.72B |
| FY2024 | $9.96B | +5.4% | $9.38 | +2333.3% | 50.2% | 32.5% | 17.3% | $1.51B |
| FY2025 | $10.21B | +2.5% | $-0.49 | -105.2% | 51.0% | 35.5% | -0.8% | $1.94B |
| FY2026 | $9.14B | -10.5% | $9.59 | +2057.1% | 51.7% | 31.3% | 18.5% | $1.79B |
Management’s own words, often on a non-GAAP, constant-currency, or adjusted basis — so these can differ from the GAAP figures above (e.g. constant-currency revenue growth excludes currency swings).
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
STZ Constellation Brands | 3 | -11.3% | |
| BF-B Brown–Forman | 5 | +2.0% |