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Analyst

John Kernan

TD Cowen · covers Consumer Cyclical

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2025 Q4 (6 quarters).

Questions
23on tracked calls
Challenge rate
4%1 of 23 questions
Companies
6questioned at least once
Reporting periods
6with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 23 of 23 questions from 6 companies

DECKDeckers Brands8 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
DECK company page →

Calendar 2025 Q3

Is north of 20% plus operating margins, how you look at the business long term

MarginTrade TariffsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

CFO confirmed tariff headwinds will pressure margins further in FY2027 first half. Q2 demonstrated ability to mitigate through disciplined management. CEO noted strong financial profile enables continued investment in capabilities.

can you talk to the split between DTC and wholesale in Q3 and Q4 a bit more

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

CFO explained wholesale expansion front-loaded in H1, creating timing-driven DTC pressure. Back half will see more DTC growth on percentage basis as wholesale normalizes. Wholesale expansion will begin to slow as company approaches 50/50 balance.

it's safe to assume at least that magnitude carries into the first half of next year, I would assume

MarginTrade TariffsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

CFO confirmed equivalent gross margin pressure carries into FY2027 first half if tariffs remain unchanged.

Calendar 2025 Q2

U.S. was down 3%, international up 50% in Q1. How should we be thinking about that within Q2

Geographic ExpansionDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CFO confirmed Q2 international growth will moderate from Q1 timing effects but bulk of growth still from international. Domestic side will see incremental improvement. HOKA US DTC improvement is expected to be gradual and incremental, building sequentially.

Calendar 2025 Q1

How should we, you know, get about these new wholesale partner doors for HOKA globally, both domestically and internationally

Competitive DynamicsGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

CEO noted expansion across specialty, sporting goods domestically and internationally. Still underpenetrated versus competitors. Declined to name specific accounts but emphasized expanding product offer enables broader distribution.

UGG outperformed your expectations pretty significantly in the fourth quarter. Just curious if you'd give more color on UGG and by region, channel

Revenue GrowthDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

CEO highlighted UGG expanding beyond slippers into sandals, sneakers, clogs, and slipper-sneaker hybrids. Men's business continues to outpace women's. CFO emphasized scarcity model driving high gross margins and full-price selling.

Calendar 2024 Q4

the operating margin profile of the business is the highest among the sector peers. As you look at HOKA and UGG, what opportunities are left

MarginCost PressureTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

CFO acknowledged margin maintenance challenges as brands scale, citing inflationary pressures, FX headwinds, and freight. Scarcity model and full-price selling remain key margin drivers.

How did the 12% growth in the U.S. compare to your expectations? And maybe talk to the drivers of that growth

Revenue GrowthGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

CEO confirmed US growth met expectations. International continues to outpace US as planned. Long-term target remains 50% international mix.

RLRalph Lauren Corporation4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
RL company page →

Calendar 2025 Q2

can you quantify the tariff impact on gross margin this year, net of the pricing

Trade TariffsMarginTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Justin said tariffs are the biggest gross margin headwind but confident in more than offsetting with AUR, promo pullback, product elevation, and favorable mix. Cost inflation pressure disproportionately impacts North America, shifting profitability contribution toward international.

Calendar 2025 Q1

the geographic EBIT margin, you know, now at 26% at your highest margin region

MarginGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Justin said encouraged by momentum and elevated positioning. Cautious on macro headwinds. Patrice noted planning 10 new owned stores and 25 partner stores in Europe for FY2026.

Calendar 2024 Q4

you reduced the global discount rate by five hundred basis points in the quarter. Obviously, strong performance in wholesale and DTC

Show response

Justin said promotional pullback lever has significant runway. New consumer acquisition focused on full-price customers gives confidence in continued AUR growth and margin expansion.

Calendar 2024 Q3

Europe comps up 15%. It's your least penetrated region from a DTC perspective

Geographic ExpansionRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Patrice said Europe still very underpenetrated. On track with Investor Day target of 40-50 full-price stores. Opened 44 since FY2022, planning 20 this year. 14 opened in Q2.

ROSTRoss Stores4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
ROST company page →

Calendar 2025 Q4

I'm just curious what you think the opportunities for merch margin are going forward

MarginCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Hartshorn said merch margin was better than expected with less ticketing and stronger shrink. Expects relatively stable but sees opportunity from branded vendor relationships and closeouts. DC pressure to continue through Q4 then improve as next DC is 2-3 years away.

Calendar 2025 Q3

what are the near and long-term returns on this? How can this lift the overall margin profile of the business long term

Capex InvestmentMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Hartshorn expects DC leverage over next 2 years. Long-term algorithm: 5% store growth + 3% comp = ~5% EPS, plus 1-3% EBIT upside and 2-3% buyback = ~double-digit EPS growth.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Where do you see opportunities to potentially leverage SG&A going forward? Obviously, there's a certain level of comps that would generate that

MarginLabor MarketTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Hartshorn attributed SG&A increase to minimum wage-driven store costs. Continuously seeking efficiencies but leverage point remains around 3% comp.

Calendar 2024 Q4

What's your view on the overall availability outlook in the quality of real estate for off-price retail right now?

Show response

medium

LULULululemon Athletica3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 1 of 3 challenging
LULU company page →

Calendar 2025 Q2

do you think you're becoming more susceptible to a macro environment in China now that you're pushing the end of the year, be pushing $1.7 billion

ChallengingGeographic ExpansionMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Calvin expressed confidence in long-term international growth, noting LULU ended last year at 25% international mix with opportunity for 50-50 ratio. Market share gains continue across all international regions.

Calendar 2025 Q1

it looks like marketing went up to about 5% of sales this year. It's still below some of your bigger peers

Competitive DynamicsCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Meghan confirmed marketing at about 5% of sales going into FY2025 and noted it is an area they would look to flex depending on business trend and product newness momentum.

Calendar 2024 Q4

Can you talk to what you're seeing on the ground in China both from a top-line and margin perspective?

Geographic ExpansionMarginTranscript · FY2024 Q3 →
Show response

Frank confirmed healthy operating margin expansion in China with revenue exceeding expectations. Not optimizing margin currently, focused on long-term growth. Guided China above 30% growth in Q4. McDonald added that Italy, Denmark, Belgium, Turkey and Czech Republic planned for 2025, citing brand momentum and being pulled into markets rather than pushing.

TJXTJX Companies3 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
TJX company page →

Calendar 2025 Q3

How would you characterize the comp progression throughout the quarter? I got a quick follow-up

Revenue GrowthMarginTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Comps started strong, had a small weather-related lull mid-quarter in June, then rebounded even stronger in July. Flow-through model updated to 10-20bp per comp point.

Calendar 2024 Q4

What would be the long-term driver of further merchandise margin expansion?

MarginRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

John identified top-line growth and market share gains as the primary margin expansion lever, noting expense decreases could also help if they materialize.

I would also like to focus in on a few of the other categories like beauty, consumables, footwear, accessories

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Ernie characterized consumable and beauty categories as traffic drivers and frequency builders that offer extreme value due to high initial markups elsewhere, helping drive customer visits.

NKENIKE, Inc.1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
NKE company page →

Calendar 2025 Q3

How would you characterize inventory in the wholesale channel and the timing of when wholesale discounts

Show response

Matt said NA, EMEA, and Greater China units all down; APLA is the area of focus. The forward-looking order book is the best indicator, and GM should benefit in H2 from lapping aggressive clearance.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
DECK Deckers Brands80%none of 8 questions
RL Ralph Lauren Corporation40%none of 4 questions
ROST Ross Stores40%none of 4 questions
LULU Lululemon Athletica333%1 of 3 questions
TJX TJX Companies30%none of 3 questions
NKE NIKE, Inc.1—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
  • DECK
    Deckers Brands · 8 questions
    0%none of 8 questions
  • RL
    Ralph Lauren Corporation · 4 questions
    0%none of 4 questions
  • ROST
    Ross Stores · 4 questions
    0%none of 4 questions
  • LULU
    Lululemon Athletica · 3 questions
    33%1 of 3 questions
  • TJX
    TJX Companies · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • NKE
    NIKE, Inc. · 1 question
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q310%none of 1 question1
2024 Q470%none of 7 questions5
2025 Q150%none of 5 questions4
2025 Q2333%1 of 3 questions3
2025 Q360%none of 6 questions4
2025 Q410%none of 1 question1
  1. 2024 Q31 question · challenge rate 0% (none of 1 question) · 1 company
  2. 2024 Q47 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 5 companies
  3. 2025 Q15 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 4 companies
  4. 2025 Q23 questions · challenge rate 33% (1 of 3 questions) · 3 companies
  5. 2025 Q36 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 4 companies
  6. 2025 Q41 question · challenge rate 0% (none of 1 question) · 1 company

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Margin13
  • Geographic Expansion7
  • Revenue Growth5
  • Demand4
  • Competitive Dynamics4
  • Capex Investment4
  • Trade Tariffs3
  • Inventory1
  • Cost Pressure1
  • Pricing1
Show all 12 topics
  • Macroeconomic1
  • Labor Market1