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CF Industries posted strong Q1 results with adjusted EBITDA of $644 million and EPS of $1.85, driven by higher nitrogen prices and volumes. Operating income surged 82% year-over-year as the tight nitrogen supply-demand balance supported strong pricing. The Blue Point FID was announced as a joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, and a new $2 billion share repurchase authorization was approved. Tariff structure favored Russian fertilizer imports, creating a market imbalance.
Capex Investment | Demand | Competitive Dynamics | Supply Chain | Regulation Policy | Pricing | Macroeconomic | Innovation & R&D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2025Q1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 2025Q2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| 2025Q3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2025Q4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 2026Q1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | '26Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex Investment | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Demand | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Competitive Dynamics | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Supply Chain | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Regulation Policy | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Pricing | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Macroeconomic | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Innovation & R&D | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
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| Quarter | Revenue | Rev YoY | EPS | EPS YoY | Gross margin | Op margin | Net margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 Q4 | $1.52B | -3.0% | $1.89 | +31.3% | 34.3% | 29.2% | 21.5% | $223M |
| FY2025 Q1Selected | $1.66B | +13.1% | $1.85 | +79.6% | 40.7% | 35.7% | 18.8% | $454M |
| FY2025 Q2 | $1.89B | +20.2% | $2.37 | +3.0% | 44.8% | 39.4% | 20.4% | $318M |
| FY2025 Q3 | $1.66B | +21.1% | $2.19 | +41.3% | 38.1% | 35.0% | 21.3% | $717M |
| FY2025 Q4 | $1.87B | +22.8% | $2.59 | +37.0% | 41.1% | 36.2% | 21.6% | $313M |
| FY2026 Q1 | $1.99B | +19.4% | $3.98 | +115.1% | 37.6% | 32.2% | 31.0% | $273M |
| FY2026 Q2 | $2.22B | +17.6% | $4.73 | +99.6% | 51.5% | 47.3% | 32.7% | $607M |
Management’s own words, often on a non-GAAP, constant-currency, or adjusted basis — so these can differ from the GAAP figures above (e.g. constant-currency revenue growth excludes currency swings).
Calendar quarter Q1 2025Earnings call May 8, 2025
FY2025 Q1 in brief
CF Industries posted strong Q1 results with adjusted EBITDA of $644 million and EPS of $1.85, driven by higher nitrogen prices and volumes.
Newest quarter FY2026 Q2 is part of Pro · see what Pro adds →
Sources. Tellvest earnings-call sentiment score for CF Industries (CF), FY2025 Q1: 8/10. Scores: CF Industries’s public earnings-call transcripts and SEC-reported results — the base band is anchored to reported GAAP revenue growth; transcript, EPS and guidance adjustments are applied separately (documented exceptions apply to a few issuers). Price: CF daily closing prices for the trailing year; dots mark earnings calls, colored by that quarter’s score; the newest quarter’s score is part of Tellvest Pro. How to read a company earnings-call score.
Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions.
| Analyst | Firm | Questions · challengingPercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Jackson | BMO Capital Markets | 12 questions · 17% challenging |
| Andrew Wong | RBC Capital Markets | 12 questions · 17% challenging |
| Chris Parkinson | Wolfe Research | 11 questions · 0% challenging |
| Lucas Beaumont | UBS | 10 questions · 20% challenging |
| Jeff Zekauskas | JPMorgan | 9 questions · 33% challenging |
| Kristen Owen | Oppenheimer | 9 questions · 0% challenging |
| Edlain Rodriguez | Mizuho Securities | 8 questions · 13% challenging |
| Ben Theurer | Barclays | 8 questions · 13% challenging |
| Vincent Andrews | Morgan Stanley | 7 questions · 14% challenging |
| Matthew DeYoe | Bank of America | 5 questions · 0% challenging |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions · challengingPercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital Markets | 1 analyst | 12 questions · 17% challenging |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1 analyst | 12 questions · 17% challenging |
| Barclays | 2 analysts | 11 questions · 9% challenging |
| Wolfe Research | 1 analyst | 11 questions · 0% challenging |
| Oppenheimer | 2 analysts | 10 questions · 0% challenging |
| UBS | 1 analyst | 10 questions · 20% challenging |
| Bank of America | 2 analysts | 9 questions · 0% challenging |
| JPMorgan | 1 analyst | 9 questions · 33% challenging |
What CF and other companies said about each other on FY2025 Q1 earnings calls — extracted verbatim from public transcripts. Mentions from the newest quarter are a Pro feature.
“Then in early April, CF Industries announced that it's reached its final investment decision on its $4 billion investment in a low-carbon blue ammonia facility, which will be located near Hyundai Steel.”
CF Industries' $4 billion FID on a blue ammonia facility in Entergy's Louisiana service territory adds a large new industrial load customer to Entergy's growth pipeline.
“and that's where we have most of our supply coming from with our contracts in CF, particularly.”
Mosaic sources most of its ammonia under contract from CF Industries; ammonia is currently tariff-exempt in the U.S., limiting Mosaic's tariff exposure on this input.
GAAP revenue YoY +13.1% → base 7. The base score is anchored to the GAAP revenue YoY band before transcript, EPS, and guidance adjustments.
“In April, 1PointFive signed a landmark 25-year carbon offtake agreement with CF Industries and its partners for their planned low-carbon ammonia facility in Louisiana.”
Occidental's 1PointFive unit signed a 25-year carbon offtake deal with CF Industries, supporting CO2 transport and storage for CF's low-carbon ammonia facility at Oxy's Pelican hub.
“also the purchases that come into the U.K. and also our LSB agreement where we purchased some of their ammonia tons, and then additionally, our point leases”
CF purchases ammonia tons from LSB Industries under an existing agreement, contributing to elevated COGS this quarter.
“we have an ongoing active dialogue with our partner, ExxonMobil. And they have a number of different alternatives, and different permits that are in kind of advanced stages.”
ExxonMobil is CF's partner for carbon dioxide storage tied to the Donaldsonville carbon capture and sequestration project, with permitting options still being finalized.
“our historical contracts on ammonia supply to Mosaic, while played a very important role, as we brought on the Donaldsonville project and actually what was helpful to us as a natural hedge in the first year, due because the contract was above where market price was - it has been a fantastic deal for Mosaic ever since, because it's trading at, but the contract formula is well below what we've otherwise been able to achieve.”
CF's long-standing ammonia supply contract with Mosaic has become a below-market-price deal favorable to Mosaic, per CF's own characterization.
“I think this project, at least from an ammonia producer's perspective, suffers from some of the challenges that we saw with the OCI project, and why we opted not to participate in that, that discussion, which is the hydrogen producer in this case Air Products, is looking to earn a nice return risk free off of the production of hydrogen and enter into take-or-pay agreements with the ammonia loop operator, at something that is a very high operating cost.”
CF references a prior, similarly structured OCI project it declined to invest in for the same take-or-pay economics reasons now cited for the Air Products deal.
“I think this project, at least from an ammonia producer's perspective, suffers from some of the challenges that we saw with the OCI project, and why we opted not to participate in that, that discussion, which is the hydrogen producer in this case Air Products, is looking to earn a nice return risk free off of the production of hydrogen and enter into take-or-pay agreements with the ammonia loop operator, at something that is a very high operating cost.”
CF explains it passed on partnering in Air Products' hydrogen-to-ammonia project because Air Products' take-or-pay structure locks in a risk-free return for itself at the expense of the ammonia loop operator's gas cost economics.
“We are pleased that the joint venture includes world-class partners in JERA and Mitsui, with whom we will share cost and offtake.”
Mitsui is a co-investor with CF in the Blue Point ammonia joint venture, sharing project costs and offtake volumes.
“We are pleased that the joint venture includes world-class partners in JERA and Mitsui, with whom we will share cost and offtake.”
JERA is a co-investor with CF in the Blue Point ammonia joint venture, sharing project costs and offtake volumes.
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
CF CF Industries | 8 | +13.1% | |
| CTVA Corteva | 6 | -1.7% | |
| MOS Mosaic Company (The) | 6 | -2.2% |