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Sentiment · FY2026 Q2
CF Industries posted exceptional Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $983 million with EPS of $3.98, boosted by Iran conflict severely tightening the global nitrogen market. Revenue grew 19% year-over-year, though GAAP EPS was inflated by a $170 million Orica litigation settlement gain. Operating income grew only 8% when stripping out the settlement. North American premium asset positioning was proving advantageous amid spreading export restrictions and rising India import requirements.
Capex Investment | Demand | Competitive Dynamics | Supply Chain | Regulation Policy | Pricing | Macroeconomic | Innovation & R&D | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2025Q1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 2025Q2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| 2025Q3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2025Q4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 2026Q1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | '26Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex Investment | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Demand | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Competitive Dynamics | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Supply Chain | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Regulation Policy | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Pricing | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Macroeconomic | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Innovation & R&D | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Quarter | Revenue | Rev YoY | EPS | EPS YoY | Gross margin | Op margin | Net margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 Q4 | $1.52B | -3.0% | $1.89 | +31.3% | 34.3% | 29.2% | 21.5% | $223M |
| FY2025 Q1 | $1.66B | +13.1% | $1.85 | +79.6% | 40.7% | 35.7% | 18.8% | $454M |
| FY2025 Q2 | $1.89B | +20.2% | $2.37 | +3.0% | 44.8% | 39.4% | 20.4% | $318M |
| FY2025 Q3 | $1.66B | +21.1% | $2.19 | +41.3% | 38.1% | 35.0% | 21.3% | $717M |
| FY2025 Q4 | $1.87B | +22.8% | $2.59 | +37.0% | 41.1% | 36.2% | 21.6% | $313M |
| FY2026 Q1 | $1.99B | +19.4% | $3.98 | +115.1% | 37.6% | 32.2% | 31.0% | $273M |
| FY2026 Q2 | $2.22B | +17.6% | $4.73 | +99.6% | 51.5% | 47.3% | 32.7% | $607M |
Management’s own words, often on a non-GAAP, constant-currency, or adjusted basis — so these can differ from the GAAP figures above (e.g. constant-currency revenue growth excludes currency swings).
| Analyst | Firm | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Jackson | BMO Capital Markets | 12 (17%) |
| Andrew Wong | RBC Capital Markets | 12 (17%) |
| Chris Parkinson | Wolfe Research |
| 11 (0%) |
| Lucas Beaumont | UBS | 10 (20%) |
| Jeff Zekauskas | JPMorgan | 9 (33%) |
| Kristen Owen | Oppenheimer | 9 (0%) |
| Edlain Rodriguez | Mizuho Securities | 8 (13%) |
| Ben Theurer | Barclays | 8 (13%) |
| Vincent Andrews | Morgan Stanley | 7 (14%) |
| Matthew DeYoe | Bank of America | 5 (0%) |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital Markets | 1 | 12 (17%) |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1 | 12 (17%) |
| Barclays | 2 | 11 (9%) |
| Wolfe Research | 1 | 11 (0%) |
| Oppenheimer | 2 | 10 (0%) |
| UBS | 1 | 10 (20%) |
| Bank of America | 2 | 9 (0%) |
| JPMorgan | 1 | 9 (33%) |
What CF and other companies said about each other on FY2026 Q1 earnings calls — extracted verbatim from public transcripts. Mentions from the newest quarter are a Pro feature.
“those were higher prices than, what, CF or Nutrien realized”
An analyst benchmarks Mosaic's realized ammonia prices against nitrogen peers CF Industries and Nutrien, questioning why Mosaic's were higher.
“These results reflect a gain of approximately $170 million from a previously disclosed litigation settlement with Orica and Nelson Brothers.”
CF recorded a ~$170M gain from a litigation settlement with Nelson Brothers and Orica.
“These results reflect a gain of approximately $170 million from a previously disclosed litigation settlement with Orica and Nelson Brothers.”
CF recorded a ~$170M gain from a litigation settlement with Orica and Nelson Brothers.
“As industrial companies look to improve their scope emissions—Pepsi is a good example, as is POET—we are seeing a positive reset and desire to align with CF Industries Holdings, Inc.”
CF cites PepsiCo as an example of an industrial/CPG customer aligning with CF on low-carbon ammonia to improve its scope emissions.
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
CF CF Industries | 7 | +19.4% | |
| CTVA Corteva | 6 | +11.1% | |
| MOS Mosaic Company (The) | 4 | +14.4% |