Start 30 days free, no card. Full Pro access for a month, then decide. Start free
Loading
Start 30 days free, no card. Full Pro access for a month, then decide. Start free
Macro sentiment aggregated across 500+ public companies, built from public earnings calls.
Showing calendar 2025 Q2Free· the newest quarter (2026 Q3) is Pro.
Tellvest Economic Sentiment Index · Calendar 2025 Q2
What CEOs are actually seeing in the economy, aggregated from earnings calls.
2024 Q4–2025 Q2. Each earlier point averages the available scores of this quarter’s 580-company panel in that quarter; companies without a score in an earlier quarter don’t contribute, so the number behind each point can vary.
Earnings-call analysis · calendar 2025 Q2
What management and analysts said on calls mapped to this calendar quarter.
Federal Reserve context
FOMC meetings held during calendar 2025 Q2. Each card shows its own meeting date.
The FOMC in its own words, read the same way we read earnings calls. Compare with the CEO macro signals below.
The Committee held the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, with Chair Powell describing policy as modestly restrictive and the economy as in solid shape. Powell emphasized that inflation remained somewhat above the 2 percent goal and that increases in tariffs this year were likely to push up prices, framing the Committee as well positioned to wait before adjusting its stance. He characterized the labor market as broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment, with unemployment at 4.2 percent and payroll gains averaging 135,000 per month. The updated Summary of Economic Projections raised the median 2025 PCE inflation projection to 3 percent while leaving the median year-end funds rate at 3.9 percent, unchanged from March, and declining to 3.6 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. Powell repeatedly stressed that no participant held their rate path with much conviction given unusually elevated uncertainty around the size and timing of tariff pass-through.
“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.”
“increases in tariffs this year are likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity.”
“Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal.”
Earnings-call signals · calendar 2025 Q2
| Signal | Companies | Direction breakdown |
|---|---|---|
| Trade & Tariffs | 382 | 3095115142 |
| Consumer Demand | 240 | 50826048 |
| Enterprise Spending | 207 | 98583813 |
| AI & Tech | 191 | 1883 |
| CAPEX | 142 | 123973 |
| Regulation Policy | 111 | 5293911 |
| Credit | 93 | 4129167 |
| Inflation | 90 | 1137933 |
| Supply Chain | 68 | 22122410 |
| FX | 64 | 3671011 |
| Housing | 56 | 1311725 |
| Labor Market | 49 | 83038 |
| Oil Energy | 35 | 132119 |
Market & economic context
Public market and economic data. It is not limited to calendar 2025 Q2: the macro backdrop is as of the end of calendar 2025 Q2 (2025-06-30), and the S&P 500 chart covers the trailing year to the latest close.
Method & guides
A composite score derived from averaging overall earnings sentiment across all analyzed companies for the selected calendar quarter. Score is 0–10 (10 = most positive).
Guides: How to read the Economic Sentiment Index · How to read Tellvest Earnings Pulse · How to read Tellvest industry earnings-call sentiment · What companies say about the consumer on earnings calls
The Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5 percent and continued reducing the balance sheet, with Powell describing policy as modestly restrictive and well positioned to wait for greater clarity. He said the risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation had risen since March, driven by tariff increases that were significantly larger than anticipated, but stressed that neither risk had yet shown up in the hard data. Powell repeatedly emphasized patience, noting the labor market remained solid at 4.2 percent unemployment and inflation was running somewhat above the 2 percent goal at 2.3 percent headline PCE. He declined to signal the timing or direction of the next move, observing that this meeting produced no new Summary of Economic Projections, and characterized the decision to hold as unanimous. He also flagged that goods-import distortions had complicated first-quarter GDP measurement and that the two mandates could come into tension if tariff effects materialized.
“The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation appear to have risen”
“We don’t think we need to be in a hurry. We think we can be patient.”
Quotes are exact substrings of the official transcript, verified automatically. The tone read is descriptive of communication, not a policy prediction.
Key economic indicators shown as latest level and year-over-year rate-of-change. Public data (FRED). Descriptive reference only, not investment advice.