Mosaic Company (The)

“our historical contracts on ammonia supply to Mosaic, while played a very important role, as we brought on the Donaldsonville project and actually what was helpful to us as a natural hedge in the first year, due because the contract was above where market price was - it has been a fantastic deal for Mosaic ever since, because it's trading at, but the contract formula is well below what we've otherwise been able to achieve.”

CF's long-standing ammonia supply contract with Mosaic has become a below-market-price deal favorable to Mosaic, per CF's own characterization.

“As an example, our position in Ma'aden equity is currently valued at about $2.1 billion.”

Mosaic's equity stake in Saudi miner Ma'aden, now valued near $2.1 billion, is a source of value in its capital-reallocation program.

“as OCP starts to ramp up some of their announced increases as well as Ma'aden”

Mosaic cites Saudi producer Ma'aden, alongside OCP, as a source of new phosphate supply expected to ramp around 2028.

“as OCP starts to ramp up some of their announced increases as well as Ma'aden”

Mosaic expects meaningful new phosphate supply only around 2028 as competitors OCP and Ma'aden ramp announced capacity increases, keeping phosphate supply-constrained near term.

“as BHP has pushed out their start-up”

Mosaic notes BHP has delayed its potash mine start-up, supporting a constructive potash supply-demand balance into 2026.

“we also have seen the announcement from Chile SQM on their repurpose of their potash production.”

Chilean producer SQM announced a repurposing of its potash production, one of several global supply signals Mosaic is tracking in the potash market.

“and that's where we have most of our supply coming from with our contracts in CF, particularly.”

Mosaic sources most of its ammonia under contract from CF Industries; ammonia is currently tariff-exempt in the U.S., limiting Mosaic's tariff exposure on this input.

“obviously, you expect some of it to come back from the losses in the third quarter with AgroGalaxy.”

AgroGalaxy, a Brazilian agricultural retailer, defaulted on receivables in 2024, causing a $30 million bad-debt loss for Mosaic's Fertilizantes business and prompting Mosaic to shift its Brazilian customer mix away from traditional retailers toward larger, lower-risk end users.

“both Belaruskali and Uralkali announced that they would produce fewer tons.”

The two major Belarusian and Russian potash producers both announced output cuts for 2025, tightening global potash supply and supporting the constructive pricing backdrop Mosaic is guiding to.

“I mean, you have to talk to Nutrien about what they think.”

Asked about potential upside to maximum potash production, Mosaic's CEO deferred on the Canadian competitive landscape to Nutrien, the largest Canadian potash producer, implying Nutrien faces similar production ceiling constraints.

“the conclusion of the Ma'aden transaction. That deal gave us a transparent value for our investment, which is about $1.5 billion as of today, as well as a $522 million gain and a long-term capital redeployment possibility.”

Mosaic exchanged its stake in the MWSPC joint venture for shares of Ma'aden, crystallizing a $1.5 billion equity stake and a $522 million gain; Mosaic now holds a market-priced Ma'aden equity position whose value will mark-to-market through Mosaic's earnings going forward.