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Sentiment · FY2026 Q2
Mosaic's Q1 2026 was dominated by the Persian Gulf conflict's devastating impact on global sulfur supply, pushing marginal sulfur costs to $1,200 per ton and compressing phosphate stripping margins below variable costs at the margin. Despite revenue growing 14.39% on 1.9 million tons of phosphate sales — the highest quarterly volume in five years — GAAP results swung to a net loss driven by $442 million in charges for the permanent idling of Araxa and Patrocinio in Brazil. Management initiated production curtailments at Bartow and Louisiana, cut CAPEX by $250 million, and launched a $50 million workforce reduction, while describing the raw material environment as 'unsustainable.' The potash business proved resilient with Canpotex on pace for record 2026 shipments, and three of four U.S. phosphate facilities had reached target operating rates before curtailments, but the path to full normalization was again deferred as management confronted an environment where both producer margins and farmer affordability were simultaneously under severe pressure.
Supply Chain | Cost Pressure | Margin | Pricing | Demand | Capital Allocation | Revenue Growth | Trade Tariffs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2025Q1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025Q2 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2025Q3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025Q4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 2026Q1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | '26Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply Chain | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Cost Pressure | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| Margin | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Pricing | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Demand | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Capital Allocation | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Revenue Growth | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Trade Tariffs | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Quarter | Revenue | Rev YoY | EPS | EPS YoY | Gross margin | Op margin | Net margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 Q4 | $2.82B | -10.6% | $0.53 | -52.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 6.0% | $-75M |
| FY2025 Q1 | $2.62B | -2.2% | $0.75 | +435.7% | 18.6% | 12.9% | 9.1% | $-298M |
| FY2025 Q2 | $3.01B | +6.7% | $1.29 |
| Analyst | Firm | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Parkinson | Wolfe Research | 7 (0%) |
| Edlain Rodriguez | Mizuho Securities | 6 (33%) |
| Andrew Wong | RBC Capital Markets |
| +358.0% |
| 17.3% |
| 8.1% |
| 13.7% |
| $305M |
| FY2025 Q3 | $3.45B | +22.8% | $1.29 | +239.5% | 16.0% | 9.8% | 11.9% | $-136M |
| FY2025 Q4 | $2.60B | -7.5% | $0.55 | +3.8% | 14.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | $-406M |
| FY2026 Q1 | $3.00B | +14.4% | $-0.79 | -205.3% | 7.9% | -12.4% | -8.6% | $-253M |
| FY2026 Q2 | $2.82B | -6.0% | $-0.86 | -166.7% | 7.6% | -1.3% | -9.7% | $-153M |
Management’s own words, often on a non-GAAP, constant-currency, or adjusted basis — so these can differ from the GAAP figures above (e.g. constant-currency revenue growth excludes currency swings).
| 6 (0%) |
| Kristen Owen | Oppenheimer | 6 (0%) |
| Vincent Andrews | Morgan Stanley | 6 (0%) |
| Jeff Zekauskas | JPMorgan | 6 (33%) |
| Lucas Beaumont | UBS | 5 (40%) |
| David Symonds | BNP Paribas | 5 (40%) |
| Joel Jackson | BMO Capital Markets | 4 (25%) |
| Duffy Fischer | Goldman Sachs | 3 (0%) |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | 1 | 7 (0%) |
| Barclays | 3 | 7 (14%) |
| Morgan Stanley | 2 | 7 (0%) |
| Oppenheimer | 2 | 7 (0%) |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1 | 6 (0%) |
| UBS | 2 | 6 (33%) |
| Mizuho Securities | 1 | 6 (33%) |
| BMO Capital Markets | 2 | 6 (17%) |
What MOS and other companies said about each other on FY2026 Q1 earnings calls — extracted verbatim from public transcripts. Mentions from the newest quarter are a Pro feature.
“those were higher prices than, what, CF or Nutrien realized”
An analyst benchmarks Mosaic's realized ammonia prices against nitrogen peers CF Industries and Nutrien, questioning why Mosaic's were higher.
“those were higher prices than, what, CF or Nutrien realized”
An analyst benchmarks Mosaic's realized ammonia prices against nitrogen peers CF Industries and Nutrien, questioning why Mosaic's were higher.
“we completed the sale of our Carlsbad potash mine in New Mexico to International Minerals Carlsbad.”
Mosaic divested its Carlsbad, New Mexico potash mine to International Minerals Carlsbad as part of its noncore-asset capital reallocation.
“we announced a project development agreement with Rainbow Rare Earths”
Mosaic signed a project development agreement with Rainbow Rare Earths to recover rare earth elements from phosphogypsum at its Uberaba gyp stack in Brazil.
“Last month, Canpotex announced it was fully committed through June and on pace for a record 2026.”
Canpotex, Mosaic's potash export marketing partner, is fully committed through June and pacing for a record year, signaling tight potash supply and strong international demand.
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
MOS Mosaic Company (The) | 4 | +14.4% | |
| CF CF Industries | 7 | +19.4% | |
| CTVA Corteva | 6 | +11.1% |