Start 30 days free, no card. Full Pro access for a month, then decide. Start free
Loading
Start 30 days free, no card. Full Pro access for a month, then decide. Start free
Macro sentiment aggregated across 500+ public companies, built from public earnings calls.
Showing calendar 2025 Q1Free· the newest quarter (2026 Q3) is Pro.
Tellvest Economic Sentiment Index · Calendar 2025 Q1
What CEOs are actually seeing in the economy, aggregated from earnings calls.
2024 Q4–2025 Q1. Each earlier point averages the available scores of this quarter’s 578-company panel in that quarter; companies without a score in an earlier quarter don’t contribute, so the number behind each point can vary.
Earnings-call analysis · calendar 2025 Q1
What management and analysts said on calls mapped to this calendar quarter.
Federal Reserve context
FOMC meetings held during calendar 2025 Q1. Each card shows its own meeting date.
The FOMC in its own words, read the same way we read earnings calls. Compare with the CEO macro signals below.
At Chair Powell's March press conference, the FOMC held the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.50 percent and slowed the pace of its balance sheet runoff, lowering the monthly Treasury redemption cap from $25 billion to $5 billion beginning in April. Powell described the economy as solid, with unemployment at 4.1 percent and inflation somewhat elevated, and attributed a good part of a recent pickup in goods prices to tariffs while calling a transitory read the base case. The Summary of Economic Projections marked GDP growth down to a 1.7 percent median for this year and raised total PCE inflation to 2.7 percent, while the median rate path was unchanged from December at two cuts this year. Powell repeatedly stressed that the Committee is not in a hurry and is well positioned to wait for greater clarity given unusually elevated uncertainty around new administration policies on trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. The statement dropped its prior line describing risks as roughly in balance, which Powell said carried no signal about the balance of concerns.
“today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged.”
“You may have seen that goods inflation moved up pretty significantly in the first two months of the year.”
“it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation if it’s going to go away quickly without action by, by us, if it’s transitory.”
Earnings-call signals · calendar 2025 Q1
| Signal | Companies | Direction breakdown |
|---|---|---|
| Trade & Tariffs | 501 | 273136290 |
| Consumer Demand | 243 | 31886559 |
| Enterprise Spending | 197 | 65595221 |
| AI & Tech | 158 | 1517 |
| CAPEX | 115 | 8118106 |
| Inflation | 88 | 5371531 |
| FX | 80 | 2581433 |
| Supply Chain | 80 | 23123312 |
| Credit | 74 | 2229185 |
| Regulation Policy | 62 | 274238 |
| Labor Market | 56 | 83963 |
| Housing | 51 | 1213521 |
| Oil Energy | 36 | 921411 |
Market & economic context
Public market and economic data. It is not limited to calendar 2025 Q1: the macro backdrop is as of the end of calendar 2025 Q1 (2025-03-31), and the S&P 500 chart covers the trailing year to the latest close.
Method & guides
A composite score derived from averaging overall earnings sentiment across all analyzed companies for the selected calendar quarter. Score is 0–10 (10 = most positive).
Guides: How to read the Economic Sentiment Index · How to read Tellvest Earnings Pulse · How to read Tellvest industry earnings-call sentiment · What companies say about the consumer on earnings calls
Powell held the federal funds rate at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, pausing after a full percentage point of cuts across the prior three meetings and describing the stance as meaningfully less restrictive but still restrictive. He characterized the economy as strong, with GDP above 2 percent for 2024, an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, and core PCE inflation at 2.8 percent for the 12 months ending in December, and said the risks to both mandates were roughly in balance. The Committee shortened its post-meeting statement, removing a reference to inflation having made progress toward the 2 percent goal, which Powell framed as language cleanup rather than a signal. Much of the press conference centered on uncertainty around the new Administration's tariff, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies, with Powell repeatedly declining to speculate and saying the Committee was waiting to see what policies are enacted. He also confirmed the five-year framework review was under way, with the 2 percent inflation goal retained and not a focus of the review.
“we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance”
“Inflation has eased significantly over the past two years but remains somewhat elevated”
Quotes are exact substrings of the official transcript, verified automatically. The tone read is descriptive of communication, not a policy prediction.
Key economic indicators shown as latest level and year-over-year rate-of-change. Public data (FRED). Descriptive reference only, not investment advice.