Matt O'Connor

Said core middle market, business banking, small business and card growth is steady while volatility sits in warehouse and bridge loans.

Pushed back on the risk, citing $2 trillion in deposits against $1.2 trillion in loans and a 149 basis points deposit cost.

Alastair deferred the precise ex-markets figure to offline but said markets NII is flattish, so most growth comes from Global Banking; partial.

Alastair guided mid-single-digit loan growth in NII assumptions, led by commercial with consumer categories picking up. No reason to expect materially lower than 2025's ~$20B/quarter pace.

Alastair confirmed card growth has picked up sequentially for 3-4 quarters. Investments in World Cup partnership, enhanced rewards, co-brand partners, and June cash back offering. Card remains front of consumer strategy.

Alastair broke down 100bps instantaneous rate sensitivity: ~80% from short-end (daily repricing), ~20% from long-end (fixed rate asset repricing). Total -$2.2B NII impact from 100bps decline, +$1B from 100bps increase.

Alastair confirmed NIM target unchanged at 2.2-2.3%, now above 2% with 7bps sequential improvement in Q3. Team knows what needs to be done to continue the march higher.

Brian confirmed the sustainable model is a couple hundred basis points of net expense growth offsetting 3-4% inflation with efficiency gains. Operating leverage returning as NII reaches record levels.

Brian attributed $400M of YoY expense growth to revenue-related incentives in Wealth Management and market-based transaction costs. AML-related headcount of 1,000-2,000 now tipping over.

Brian confirmed business capital demands grow slower than capital generation, leaving room for continued buyback acceleration beyond $4.5B.

Brian stated no businesses are capital-constrained, with growth decisions driven by risk appetite rather than capital availability.

Barnum credited exceptionally strong net new checking account growth and the brand, while watching migration to higher beta products as rates rise.

Dimon said most noninterest-bearing deposits are consumer; Barnum said wholesale deposits are a bit more competitive and ECR reporting inflates them.

Dimon said conditions are close to as good as it gets but durability is unknown, and Barnum flagged deposit-beta convexity risk if rates rise sharply.

Dimon prefers deploying capital through client-focused business building over buybacks. Sees huge capital needs globally in remilitarization, infrastructure, data centers. Prefers buying back stock only at a real discount.

Dimon framed it as serving huge global investors with $350T in assets. Barnum added that revenue growth partially reflects more capital deployment with healthy but below-firm-average returns.

Dimon and Barnum both said no tariff-linked pricing pressure. Normal competitive pricing conversations but nothing attributable to tariffs.

Barnum said he hadn't looked at that metric and it wasn't important enough to get raised. Dimon suggested it could be First Republic accounting. Promised to follow up.

Barnum detailed airline spend weakness but questioned it as broader indicator. Noted front-loading in tariff-exposed categories. Said lower-income segment showing no distress despite relatively weaker patterns.

Barnum pushed back on comparison to other banks' failed international consumer efforts, said strategy is different and initiative is going well.

Barnum gave nuanced answer acknowledging deposit margin compression may be sustainable for now, but unclear through full cycle. Dimon confirmed NII normalization.

Bible described CRE evolving from balance-sheet-only lending to an originate-and-sell platform spanning RCC, CRE Warehouse, affordability and institutional CRE.

Bible said non-accruals are near a two-decade low while criticized loans, including 24% of office CRE, still have room to decline over the next year or two.

Bible said trading revenue reflects growing customer swap business under Hugh Giorgio. Plan to break out capital markets and investment banking as a separate line item after GL conversion. Growing really nicely.

Bible said competition unchanged, competitive but not worse or easier. Different pricing strategies by market density. Operating account/checking account is first priority across all business lines. Focused on growing net new checking accounts.

Bible attributed credit stress to prolonged high rates hitting lower-end consumers and small businesses. MTB tightened in small business and leasing. Some private equity-backed companies struggling. Rich Berry set up specialty verticals for leverage lending and other higher-risk areas.

Bible said M&A credit diligence starts with cultural fit and underwriting alignment. Referenced Peoples United as example of known good culture. Must ask questions and dig until satisfied, fundamentals matter most.

Bible said criticized peaked a few years ago and has been declining for two years. Goal is to reach levels about half of peak within next couple of years.

Bible explained MTRCC Fannie Mae DUS program losses from four idiosyncratic clients: manufactured housing (discontinued pilot program), university multifamily (foreign student decline), senior living, and renovation with fire/flood. 22-year history with only $7M prior losses. Expects reserves to normalize.

Bible explained macro overlay increased weighting on downside scenario, unemployment to ~5%, GDP near zero. Provision would have been $110M vs $130M actual without adjustment.

Bible confirmed capital markets/IB build-out underway, noted Blackstone RCC relationship, subservicing strength, and ICS expansion into Europe.

Sized each portfolio, gave the weighted average life of two and a half to three years, and framed it as acceleration rather than a new decision.

Clarified right-sizing rather than exit and added the two CLNs completed on roughly half of an $11 billion prime auto reference pool.

Rogers said commercial corporate banking up 8% YoY with good momentum. Focus on returns, 22% more new relationships, 60% with payments, higher revenue per client. At-bats smaller but batting average high. Consumer intentionally throttled in lower-return areas like indirect auto; specialty lending up 7.5% with seasonal production acceleration ahead.

Maguire said merger-related charges becoming less significant. Severance and facilities charges will continue but expected to be modestly lower in 2026. Difficult to forecast given their nature. Moving to GAAP-only expense reporting.

Rogers said $750M/quarter should be viewed as floor with capacity to increase, while maintaining conservative capital structure. Defining speed and slope to 10% CET1 by end of 2027. Won't react to two days' market volatility.

Rogers described CRE increase as inflection after prior decreases, driven by REIT relationships and shorter duration business with capital markets activity. Milsaps added prepayments load was a factor.

Rogers explained public finance disruption was idiosyncratic to Truist's mix, M&A deals deferred not lost and many back in market. June returned to normal run rate.

Rogers described continuous improvement from 2023 efficiency program, consolidation, spans/layers, offsetting investments in digital, talent, risk. Maguire sized restructuring at $40-50M remaining.

Maguire confirmed ~10% CET1 target including AOCI, noted regulatory changes in motion, current 11.5% (9.6% adjusted for AOCI) with potential for updated perspective as rules evolve.

Maguire provided AFS duration in low 3s (post-Spring repositioning), HTM closer to 7%, blended mid-4s on a combined basis.

Mike said early vintages perform as expected, originations should hold at 600,000 to 700,000 cards a quarter, and profitability builds next year and the year after.

Mike cited the Volkswagen and Audi relationship, other OEM flow and modest near-prime lending at about 5% of originations, and warned higher rates could compress returns.

Mike did not quantify the drag but said lower-cost branch and direct acquisitions and maturing vintages should lift yields over the next couple of years.

Mike described strong demand ex-office across multifamily, industrial, and data centers. Office market bifurcated: newer Class A in vibrant cities doing well with strong CMBS executions, while older stock has stabilized but continues to work through. Overall good demand and activity levels.

Mike cited this quarter as their highest IB fee quarter ever. Will continue methodical wallet share growth by adding coverage in technology sub-sectors and M&A. Charlie added they talk about top five as a waypoint, not endpoint, and will continue disciplined buildout leveraging existing corporate relationships and credit exposure.

Mike declined to provide NII ex-markets breakdown but noted trends outside markets are pretty stable and largely consistent with expectations. Higher payment rates in cards muting balances slightly, cash rebalancing into higher yields has stabilized.

Mike noted clean energy tax credit impact is a few years out. Q2 tax rate was lower due to California revenue attribution change and other items. Long-term tax rate expected to remain in high teens.

Mike cited broad-based opportunities: automation, real estate reduction, third-party expenses, operating losses, hundreds of activities ongoing with almost no part of the company fully optimized.

Mike attributed the decline to tough comps from a strong Q4 2023, noting nothing abnormal underlying. Charlie emphasized their business is materially smaller and less complex than peers.

Mike confirmed marginal asset sensitivity, noting the balance sheet has naturally become less sensitive over recent quarters.

Reilly detailed broad capital markets strength led by a record Harris Williams, with loan growth feeding derivative activity.

Bill confirmed zero duration in equity, economically flat to overall rate movement. Continued locking in forward curve rates during volatility spikes in the belly of the curve. Provides certainty for 2026 and even 2027-2028. Strong NII trajectory for next couple years not dependent on trading away future.

Bill explained MSR hedging losses were purely a realized vs implied volatility issue, negative convexity book gets hurt when realized vol exceeds implied. Not a trading error or structural issue. Through time, this line typically produces ~$10M positive. Residential and commercial offsets limited the damage.

Rob confirmed largely rate-neutral positioning, NII guide not reliant on rate cuts. Bill explained: front-end balanced between loan yield and deposit cost; longer-term exposed to reinvestment rates but locked via forward-starting swaps at opportunistic times. Program continues from 2025.

Bill noted branch build pace already 2-3x prior year with 150 builds in progress. Sites selected and construction ongoing. Internal capabilities scaling to accelerate further. Most potential M&A targets don't have the retail share PNC needs, branches are wrong location, brokered deposits, weak retail relationships. Organic is the answer.

Rob noted rate paid may drift up slightly on mix, not step change. Bill revealed internal debate on whether to be more competitive on rates in expansion markets to gain share faster, though primary focus remains DDA household growth.

Bill explained: more front-end cuts marginally positive this year. Longer-term NII trajectory into 2026-27 depends on term rates staying high. Forward-starting swaps locking in known repricing outcomes. Current rate environment is favorable.

Rob confirmed 3% core expense growth is typical. Bill emphasized investment is growth-oriented (branches, tech, data centers), not catch-up spending.

Rob confirmed no explicit CET1 target due to rules in flux. Substantial capital flexibility above 7% minimum. Capital ratios likely to build further.