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Sentiment · FY2026 Q1
| Analyst | Firm | Questions | ChallengePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Arcaro | Morgan Stanley | 12 | 0% |
| Steve Fleishman | Wolfe Research | 9 | 11% |
| Jeremy Tonet | JPMorgan | 9 | 0% |
| Shar Pourreza | Wells Fargo | 9 | 0% |
| Julien Dumoulin-Smith | Jefferies | 8 | 13% |
| Will Appicelli | UBS | 7 | 0% |
| Angie Storozynski | Seaport Research Partners | 6 | 17% |
| Durgesh Chopra | Evercore ISI | 4 | 0% |
| Mike Sullivan | Wolfe Research | 4 | 0% |
| Andy Weisel | Scotiabank | 3 | 0% |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions | ChallengePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | 2 | 13 | 8% |
| Morgan Stanley | 1 | 12 | 0% |
| Wells Fargo | 2 | 11 | 0% |
| JPMorgan | 1 |
| 9 |
| 0% |
| Jefferies | 1 | 8 | 13% |
| UBS | 1 | 7 | 0% |
| Seaport Research Partners | 1 | 6 | 17% |
| Evercore ISI | 1 | 4 | 0% |
Vistra delivered record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.5B as the fleet excelled during Winter Storm Fern, reaffirming 2026 guidance ranges while maintaining the 2027 EBITDA midpoint opportunity range pending Cogentrix and other deal integrations. A strong capital returns program and investment-grade upgrade reinforced the balance sheet, and ERCOT load growth of 5-6% CAGR through 2030 supported the long-term thesis. Retail showed moderation from mild ERCOT weather, and PJM colocation and regulatory complexity remained ongoing dynamics.
Cloud & AI | Regulation Policy | Pricing | Demand | Capital Allocation | Innovation & R&D | Guidance Reliability | Competitive Dynamics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2025Q1 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | ||
| 2025Q2 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025Q3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 2025Q4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2026Q1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | '26Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud & AI | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| Regulation Policy | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Pricing | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Demand | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Capital Allocation | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Innovation & R&D | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Guidance Reliability | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Competitive Dynamics | 1 | 5 |
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
VST Vistra Corp. | 8 | +9.1% | |
| NRG NRG Energy | 7 | +19.5% |