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Sentiment · FY2026 Q2
| Analyst | Firm | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| David Arcaro | Morgan Stanley | 12 (0%) |
| Jeremy Tonet | JPMorgan | 12 (0%) |
| Shar Pourreza | Wells Fargo | 9 (0%) |
| Steve Fleishman | Wolfe Research | 9 (11%) |
| Julien Dumoulin-Smith | Jefferies | 8 (13%) |
| Bill Appicelli | UBS | 7 (0%) |
| Michael Sullivan | Wolfe Research | 6 (0%) |
| Angie Storozynski | Seaport Research Partners | 6 (17%) |
| Constantine Lednev | Wells Fargo | 5 (0%) |
| Durgesh Chopra | Evercore ISI | 4 (0%) |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Wolfe Research | 2 | 15 (7%) |
| Wells Fargo | 2 | 14 (0%) |
| Morgan Stanley | 1 | 12 (0%) |
| JPMorgan | 1 |
Vistra delivered record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.5B as the fleet excelled during Winter Storm Fern, reaffirming 2026 guidance ranges while maintaining the 2027 EBITDA midpoint opportunity range pending Cogentrix and other deal integrations. A strong capital returns program and investment-grade upgrade reinforced the balance sheet, and ERCOT load growth of 5-6% CAGR through 2030 supported the long-term thesis. Retail showed moderation from mild ERCOT weather, and PJM colocation and regulatory complexity remained ongoing dynamics.
Cloud & AI | Regulation Policy | Pricing | Demand | Capital Allocation | Innovation & R&D | Guidance Reliability | Competitive Dynamics | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2025Q1 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | ||
| 2025Q2 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025Q3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| 2025Q4 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2026Q1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | '26Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud & AI | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| Regulation Policy | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Pricing | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Demand | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Capital Allocation | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Innovation & R&D | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Guidance Reliability | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Competitive Dynamics | 1 | 5 |
| 12 (0%) |
| Jefferies | 1 | 8 (13%) |
| UBS | 1 | 7 (0%) |
| Seaport Research Partners | 1 | 6 (17%) |
| Melius Research | 1 | 4 (0%) |
| Quarter | Revenue | Rev YoY | EPS | EPS YoY | Op margin | Net margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 Q4 | $7.36B | +117.0% | $1.13 | +278.9% | 51.8% | 6.0% | $923M |
| FY2025 Q1 | $5.17B | +85.1% | $-0.93 | -287.5% | 22.6% | -5.2% | $-169M |
| FY2025 Q2 | $4.25B | +15.2% | $0.83 | -7.8% | 12.1% | 7.7% | $-118M |
| FY2025 Q3 | $4.97B | -10.2% | $1.75 | -66.7% | 21.0% | 13.1% | $1.01B |
| FY2025 Q4 | $2.34B | -68.2% | $0.55 | -51.3% | -74.8% | 10.0% | $-82M |
| FY2026 Q1 | $4.65B | -10.0% | $2.88 | +409.7% | 11.3% | 22.1% | $316M |
| FY2026 Q2 | $4.02B | -5.5% | $0.76 | -8.4% | 13.8% | 7.6% | $-316M |
Management’s own words, often on a non-GAAP, constant-currency, or adjusted basis — so these can differ from the GAAP figures above (e.g. constant-currency revenue growth excludes currency swings).
What VST and other companies said about each other on FY2026 Q1 earnings calls — extracted verbatim from public transcripts. Mentions from the newest quarter are a Pro feature.
“We were part of announcements with Emerald AI about their tools to be more flexible, and they're doing some pilots in Silicon Valley with NVIDIA that I think will be very interesting from a demonstration of this capability.”
NVIDIA is named as running Silicon Valley pilots with Emerald AI on data-center demand flexibility, a read-through on NVIDIA's involvement in grid-flexibility demonstrations.
“We were part of announcements with Emerald AI about their tools to be more flexible, and they're doing some pilots in Silicon Valley with NVIDIA that I think will be very interesting from a demonstration of this capability.”
Vistra participated in announcements with Emerald AI on demand-flexibility tools, a read-through on Emerald AI's role in data-center load flexibility.
“we received an upgrade of our corporate issuer rating to investment grade from Fitch Ratings.”
Fitch Ratings upgraded Vistra's corporate issuer rating to investment grade during the quarter.
“Combined with the upgrade from S&P Global Ratings late last year, we have now achieved investment-grade ratings from 2 rating agencies.”
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Vistra to investment grade, one of two agencies granting IG status.
“we did have Constellation come out in the last month or 2 and talk about a little bit of a pause from customers due to the kind of RBP uncertainty and some of the structural uncertainty”
An analyst notes competitor Constellation Energy flagged a customer pause tied to PJM regulatory uncertainty, a mildly negative read-through on data-center contracting momentum.
“the contribution from the assets we acquired in late 2025 from Lotus.”
Vistra's generation EBITDA benefited from assets acquired from Lotus in late 2025, a read-through on that completed acquisition.
“long-term power purchase agreements with Meta for approximately 2,600 megawatts of energy and capacity at our PJM nuclear sites.”
Meta signed long-term PPAs for ~2,600 MW from Vistra's PJM nuclear sites, a read-through on Meta's growing data-center power demand and clean-energy procurement.
“we announced the acquisition of the 5,500-megawatt Cogentrix natural gas generation portfolio”
Vistra announced acquiring Cogentrix's 5,500-MW natural gas generation portfolio, expanding its dispatchable fleet.
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
VST Vistra Corp. | 8 | +9.1% | |
| NRG NRG Energy | 7 | +20.0% |