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What CEOs are actually seeing in the economy — aggregated from 525 earnings calls
Aggregated from 525 earnings calls across 11 sectors
A composite score derived from averaging overall earnings sentiment across all analyzed companies for their latest reported quarter. Score is 0–10 (10 = most positive).
| Signal | Companies | Direction breakdown |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Demand | 207 | 45914922 |
| AI & Tech | 203 | 19922 |
| Trade & Tariffs | 201 | 11675964 |
| Enterprise Spending | 195 | 13733223 |
| CAPEX | 157 | 138181 |
| Supply Chain | 118 | 24193936 |
| Inflation | 100 | 9351343 |
| Oil Energy | 94 | 1622452 |
| Regulation Policy | 75 | 2712279 |
| Credit | 70 | 2329126 |
| FX | 48 | 287112 |
| Housing | 47 | 15101111 |
| Labor Market | 43 | 62881 |
The FOMC in its own words, read the same way we read earnings calls. Compare with the CEO macro signals below.
Powell held the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, characterizing the stance as appropriate while a Middle East conflict and oil-price spike pushed near-term inflation risks higher against 12-month PCE of 2.8 percent and core of 3.0 percent. The updated SEP left the median rate path essentially unchanged from December, showing a funds rate of 3.4 percent at the end of 2026, though Powell noted meaningful movement toward fewer cuts and said any easing is conditional on tariff-driven goods disinflation actually materializing. He described the labor market as a near-zero job-growth equilibrium, with unemployment steady at 4.4 percent, and framed the risks as two-sided, calling it a difficult situation that balances upside inflation risk against downside employment risk. Powell repeatedly emphasized deep uncertainty about the oil shock’s size and duration and stressed a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting posture, while the possibility of a rate increase came up at the meeting without being the base case. He also cited an upgraded long-run growth and neutral-rate view on stronger productivity and said he would serve as Chair pro tem if his successor is not confirmed by May 15.
“inflation remains somewhat elevated”
“In the near term, higher energy prices will push up overall inflation”
“is actually tariffs, so we’re looking for progress on that”
Powell held the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, pausing after 75 basis points of cuts across the prior three meetings and calling the current stance appropriate for both mandates. He described the economy as expanding at a solid pace with resilient consumer spending and an AI-driven data-center buildout, while core PCE inflation held at 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending in December, which he attributed largely to tariff effects on goods prices that he characterized as a one-time increase. The Committee revised its statement to drop the prior language about rising downside risks to employment, citing an improved growth outlook and some signs of labor-market stabilization after a period of softening. Powell said the risks to both sides of the dual mandate had diminished and stressed a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach with policy not on a preset course. Two members, Miran and Waller, dissented in favor of a quarter-point cut, and Powell noted this was among his final meetings as Chair before an expected leadership transition.
“Having lowered our policy rate by 75 basis points over the course of our previous three meetings, we see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward both our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals.”
“remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal”
Quotes are exact substrings of the official transcript, verified automatically. The tone read is descriptive of communication, not a policy prediction.