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Sentiment · FY2025 Q4
| Analyst | Firm | Questions | ChallengePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Horvers | JPMorgan | 5 | 0% |
| Olivia Tong | Raymond James | 4 | 25% |
| Mark Altschwager | Robert W. Baird | 4 | 0% |
| Simeon Gutman | Morgan Stanley | 3 | 33% |
| Kate McShane | Goldman Sachs | 3 | 0% |
| Dana Telsey | Telsey Advisory Group | 3 | 0% |
| Mike Lasser | UBS | 3 | 67% |
| Susan Anderson | Canaccord Genuity | 3 | 0% |
| Krisztina Katai | Deutsche Bank | 3 | 0% |
| Steve Forbes | Guggenheim | 3 | 0% |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions | ChallengePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan | 1 | 5 | 0% |
| Guggenheim | 2 | 5 | 0% |
| Robert W. Baird | 1 | 4 | 0% |
| Goldman Sachs | 2 |
| 4 |
| 0% |
| Raymond James | 1 | 4 | 25% |
| Evercore ISI | 1 | 3 | 67% |
| Deutsche Bank | 1 | 3 | 0% |
| Canaccord Genuity | 1 | 3 | 0% |
Ulta capped FY2025 with record holiday performance, delivering Q4 net sales up 11.8% to $3.9B with comparable sales growth of 5.8% and EPS of $8.01. FY2026 guidance was introduced at $28.05-28.55 EPS, implying approximately 10% growth over the $25.64 FY2025 actual, signaling a return to profitable growth. Continued market share gains in mass and prestige were supported by the TikTok Shop launch expanding social commerce presence and a strong newness pipeline including Rare Beauty, while shrink reductions continued across every category.
Competitive Dynamics | Revenue Growth | Margin | Innovation & R&D | Capex Investment | Product Launch | Demand | Pricing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| 2024Q4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2025Q1 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| 2025Q2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2025Q3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 2025Q4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| '24Q3 | '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Competitive Dynamics | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Revenue Growth | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Margin | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Innovation & R&D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Capex Investment | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Product Launch | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Demand | 2 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Pricing | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
ULTA Ulta Beauty | 7 | +11.8% | |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | 9 | +16.6% | |
| AZO AutoZone | 7 | +8.4% | |
| BBY Best Buy | 6 | +1.9% | |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 8 | +0.3% | |
| EBAY eBay | 8 | +19.5% | |
| GPC Genuine Parts Company | 6 | +6.8% | |
| MELI MercadoLibre | 7 | +49.0% | |
| ORLY O'Reilly Automotive | 8 | +10.2% | |
| PDD PDD Holdings | 6 | +10.4% | |
| TSCO Tractor Supply | 5 | +3.6% | |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma | 6 | +4.3% |