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Sentiment · FY2026 Q2
Marathon Petroleum grew GAAP revenue 9.7% year-over-year to $34.6 billion and swung to GAAP EPS of $1.73 from a $0.24 loss a year ago, reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.65 and adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion, up nearly $800 million year-over-year. Refineries ran at 89% utilization with nearly 100% capture in what management called its strongest first quarter on process safety and lowest unplanned downtime this decade, while completing roughly 40% of full-year planned maintenance; Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA per barrel was $5.37. Late in the quarter, geopolitical events in the Middle East took an estimated 6 million barrels per day, close to 6% of global refined products capacity, offline, tightening markets and driving cracks higher. MPC returned over $1 billion to shareholders including $750 million of repurchases and announced an additional $5 billion authorization, while full-year turnaround cost outlook was maintained at $1.35 billion. MPLX is investing over $2.4 billion in 2026 with roughly 90% directed at natural gas and NGLs and expects 12.5% distribution growth for the next two years, with a South Korean agreement with E1 securing long-term demand for up to 40% of new Gulf Coast fractionation volumes.
Competitive Dynamics | Margin | Capital Allocation | Capex Investment | Demand | Pricing | Macroeconomic | Regulation Policy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2025Q1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 2025Q2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2025Q3 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 2025Q4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2026Q1 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | '26Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Competitive Dynamics | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Margin | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Capital Allocation | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Capex Investment | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Demand | 3 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Pricing | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | |
| Macroeconomic | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Regulation Policy | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Analyst | Firm | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Neil Mehta | Goldman Sachs | 14 (21%) |
| Manav Gupta | UBS | 13 (0%) |
| Doug Leggate | Wolfe Research | 13 (38%) |
| Theresa Chen | Barclays | 13 (15%) |
| Jason Gabelman | TD Cowen | 12 (25%) |
| Matthew Blair | Tudor, Pickering, Holt | 11 (9%) |
| Paul Cheng | Scotiabank | 8 (38%) |
| Phillip Jungwirth | BMO Capital Markets | 7 (0%) |
| John Royall | Piper Sandler | 6 (17%) |
| Joe Laetsch | Morgan Stanley | 5 (0%) |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 1 | 14 (21%) |
| Barclays | 1 | 13 (15%) |
| Wolfe Research | 1 | 13 (38%) |
| UBS | 1 |
| 13 (0%) |
| TD Cowen | 1 | 12 (25%) |
| Tudor, Pickering, Holt | 1 | 11 (9%) |
| Piper Sandler | 2 | 9 (11%) |
| Scotiabank | 1 | 8 (38%) |
| Quarter | Revenue | Rev YoY | EPS | EPS YoY | Op margin | Net margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 Q4 | $33.14B | -8.6% | $1.16 | -69.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | $1.40B |
| FY2025 Q1 | $31.52B | -3.6% | $-0.24 | -109.3% | 1.1% | -0.2% | $-727M |
| FY2025 Q2 | $33.80B | -10.9% | $3.96 | -8.5% | 5.6% | 3.6% | $1.94B |
| FY2025 Q3 | $34.81B | -0.8% | $4.51 | +141.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | $1.66B |
| FY2025 Q4 | $32.57B | -1.7% | $5.13 | +342.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | $1.89B |
| FY2026 Q1 | $34.57B | +9.7% | $1.73 | +820.8% | 4.1% | 1.5% | $208M |
| FY2026 Q2 | $51.99B | +53.8% | $17.73 | +347.7% | 13.8% | 9.9% | $9.35B |
Management’s own words, often on a non-GAAP, constant-currency, or adjusted basis — so these can differ from the GAAP figures above (e.g. constant-currency revenue growth excludes currency swings).
What MPC and other companies said about each other on FY2026 Q1 earnings calls — extracted verbatim from public transcripts. Mentions from the newest quarter are a Pro feature.
“we signed a substantial multiyear agreement with Marathon Petroleum, establishing ourselves as the preferred supplier of hydrocarbon treatment products and services for 12 refineries and 2 renewable fuels facilities throughout North America.”
Baker Hughes became preferred supplier of downstream chemicals to Marathon Petroleum across 12 refineries and 2 renewable fuels facilities, a read-through on MPC's refining/renewables footprint.
“through an agreement with our South Korean customer, E1, we have secured long-term delivered demand for up to 40% of the volumes MPC will purchase from MPLX's new Gulf Coast fractionation facilities”
MPC secured E1, a South Korean LPG buyer, as a long-term delivered offtaker for up to 40% of its new Gulf Coast fractionation volumes, giving E1 committed U.S. LPG supply.
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
MPC Marathon Petroleum | 8 | +9.7% | |
| PSX Phillips 66 | 8 | +11.7% | |
| VLO Valero Energy | 7 | +7.0% |