Start 30 days free, no card. Full Pro access for a month, then decide. Start free
Loading
Start 30 days free, no card. Full Pro access for a month, then decide. Start free
Macro sentiment aggregated across 500+ public companies, built from public earnings calls.
Showing calendar 2024 Q4Free· the newest quarter (2026 Q3) is Pro.
Tellvest Economic Sentiment Index · Calendar 2024 Q4
What CEOs are actually seeing in the economy, aggregated from earnings calls.
The trend appears once this panel has scores in two calendar quarters.
Earnings-call analysis · calendar 2024 Q4
What management and analysts said on calls mapped to this calendar quarter.
Federal Reserve context
FOMC meetings held during calendar 2024 Q4. Each card shows its own meeting date.
The FOMC in its own words, read the same way we read earnings calls. Compare with the CEO macro signals below.
Powell cut the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 4.25 to 4.50 percent, the third consecutive reduction, while explicitly signaling a slower pace of easing ahead through the new 'extent and timing' language in the statement. He framed the move as a closer call, justified by a labor market that has cooled below its 2019 tightness and by 100 basis points of cumulative easing that leaves policy significantly less restrictive but still meaningfully above neutral. The Summary of Economic Projections raised the near-term inflation path and pared the median to two rate reductions next year from four in September, which Powell attributed to firmer inflation readings and higher uncertainty. He repeatedly stressed the need to keep policy restrictive until further progress on inflation is evident, characterizing the risks to the employment and inflation mandates as roughly in balance. Governor Beth Hammack dissented, preferring to hold the target range steady.
“We can therefore be more cautious as we consider further adjustments to our policy rate.”
“a median forecast of down [to] two cuts next year, compared to four in September”
“inflation has once again underperformed relative to expectations.”
Earnings-call signals · calendar 2024 Q4
| Signal | Companies | Direction breakdown |
|---|---|---|
| Trade & Tariffs | 237 | 26112450 |
| Consumer Demand | 223 | 63735235 |
| Enterprise Spending | 198 | 106493013 |
| CAPEX | 194 | 1533353 |
| AI & Tech | 189 | 18225 |
| Inflation | 123 | 21531237 |
| FX | 115 | 238102 |
| Supply Chain | 104 | 31262918 |
| Credit | 95 | 38301314 |
| Labor Market | 74 | 1444124 |
| Housing | 57 | 1391520 |
| Regulation Policy | 55 | 235225 |
| Oil Energy | 34 | 79117 |
Market & economic context
Public market and economic data. It is not limited to calendar 2024 Q4: the macro backdrop is as of the end of calendar 2024 Q4 (2024-12-31), and the S&P 500 chart covers the trailing year to the latest close.
Method & guides
A composite score derived from averaging overall earnings sentiment across all analyzed companies for the selected calendar quarter. Score is 0–10 (10 = most positive).
Guides: How to read the Economic Sentiment Index · How to read Tellvest Earnings Pulse · How to read Tellvest industry earnings-call sentiment · What companies say about the consumer on earnings calls
Powell cut the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 4.5 to 4.75 percent, a second consecutive reduction he framed as a further recalibration of policy toward a more neutral stance while stressing that policy remains restrictive. He described the economy as strong, with third-quarter GDP growth of 2.8 percent, an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, headline PCE inflation at 2.1 percent, and core PCE at 2.7 percent, and judged the risks to the employment and inflation mandates as roughly in balance. The Committee shortened its statement, dropping the earlier language about inflation having made further progress and the Committee having gained greater confidence, which Powell characterized as removing an outdated test rather than sending a signal. He said the Committee is in no hurry to reach neutral, will decide meeting by meeting, and declined to characterize the December decision or update projections because no SEP was submitted. Powell also repeatedly declined to speculate on the incoming Administration's policies, saying the Committee does not guess, speculate, or assume.
“This further recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market”
“We’re on a path to a more neutral stance.”
Quotes are exact substrings of the official transcript, verified automatically. The tone read is descriptive of communication, not a policy prediction.
Key economic indicators shown as latest level and year-over-year rate-of-change. Public data (FRED). Descriptive reference only, not investment advice.