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Sentiment · FY2026 Q2
International Paper cut FY2026 enterprise EBITDA guidance to $3.2-$3.5B from $3.5-$3.7B, the company's second consecutive year of guidance reductions, driven by a $53 million Q1 winter storm hit and Middle East energy pressures across both regions. North American box volume growth exceeded the market for the third consecutive quarter, and the NORPAC acquisition strengthened the West Coast footprint. EMEA restructuring delivered $200 million in run-rate savings, though a heavy H1-H2 earnings step-up of $650 million in NA alone was required to achieve midpoint guidance.
Margin | Cost Pressure | Demand | Competitive Dynamics | Guidance Reliability | Capital Allocation | Supply Chain | Capex Investment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| 2025Q1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2025Q2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 2025Q3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 2025Q4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | ||
| 2026Q1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | '26Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Cost Pressure | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| Demand | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Competitive Dynamics | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Guidance Reliability | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | |
| Capital Allocation | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Supply Chain | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Capex Investment | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Quarter | Revenue | Rev YoY | EPS | EPS YoY | Gross margin | Op margin | Net margin | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 Q4 | $4.58B | -0.5% | $-0.42 | +48.8% | 29.0% | -1.6% | -3.2% | $137M |
| FY2025 Q1 | $5.90B | +27.8% | $-0.24 | -250.0% | 27.8% | -0.6% | -1.8% | $-618M |
| FY2025 Q2 | $6.77B | +42.9% | $0.14 |
| Analyst | Firm | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Weintraub | Seaport Research Partners | 15 (13%) |
| Philip Ng | Jefferies | 15 (13%) |
| Mike Roxland | Truist Securities |
| -90.1% |
| 27.9% |
| 3.0% |
| 1.1% |
| $54M |
| FY2025 Q3 | $6.22B | +32.8% | $-2.09 | -597.6% | 31.1% | -6.8% | -17.7% | $150M |
| FY2025 Q4 | $6.01B | +31.1% | $-4.52 | -976.2% | 31.4% | -42.7% | -39.7% | $255M |
| FY2026 Q1 | $5.97B | +1.2% | $0.11 | +145.8% | 20.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | $94M |
| FY2026 Q2 | $6.00B | -2.2% | $-0.02 | -114.3% | 27.6% | 0.7% | -0.2% | $-7M |
Management’s own words, often on a non-GAAP, constant-currency, or adjusted basis — so these can differ from the GAAP figures above (e.g. constant-currency revenue growth excludes currency swings).
| 13 (31%) |
| George Staphos | Bank of America | 11 (36%) |
| Matthew McKellar | RBC Capital Markets | 9 (0%) |
| Anthony Pettinari | Citigroup | 8 (0%) |
| Gabe Hajde | Wells Fargo | 4 (50%) |
| Charlie Muir-Sands | BNP Paribas | 4 (25%) |
| Bryan Burgmeier | Citigroup | 2 (0%) |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions (Challenge)Percentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|
| Seaport Research Partners | 1 | 15 (13%) |
| Jefferies | 1 | 15 (13%) |
| Truist Securities | 1 | 13 (31%) |
| Bank of America | 1 | 11 (36%) |
| Citigroup | 2 | 10 (0%) |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1 | 9 (0%) |
| BNP Paribas | 1 | 4 (25%) |
| Wells Fargo | 1 | 4 (50%) |
What IP and other companies said about each other on FY2026 Q1 earnings calls — extracted verbatim from public transcripts. Mentions from the newest quarter are a Pro feature.
“We recently announced a bolt-on acquisition that fits squarely with our strategy, the NORPAC paper mill in Longview, Washington.”
International Paper is acquiring the NORPAC paper mill to strengthen its West Coast footprint and expand lightweight recycled containerboard capacity; expected high-teens or better returns.
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
IP International Paper | 4 | +1.2% | |
| AMCR Amcor | 6 | +77.4% | |
| BALL Ball Corporation | 7 | +16.1% | |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | 6 | +10.6% | |
| SW Smurfit WestRock | 3 | -12.5% |